US Midterm Predictions
Okay, I don't follow American politics as closely as I due Canadian politics, but I will see how good my predictions are here. Unlike Canada where there is strict party discipline, this is less the case in the United States so national trends won't always apply in each congressional district or senate race, and likely will play little factor in the gubenatorial races.
House
Democrats will retake it, but by a narrow margin. The Democrats have a pretty substantial lead in the polls and considering every seat is up for grabs, it will require a last minute shift to the Republicans to prevent the Democrats from taking it. However, they won't win with the majority they are hoping for due to three reasons
1. The Republican base generally have a higher level of voter turnout than the Democrat Base
2. Incumbents don't get defeated very often since unlike Canada there is far less party discipline so one can vote for a Republican representative even if they hate Bush provided that representative is willing to break party ranks frequently
3. The congressional districts are heavily gerrymandered in favour of the Republicans, so the Democrats need about a 5% lead to just tie things up.
Senate
The Republicans will narrowly hold it, but by a narrower margin. Since only 1/3 of senate seats are up for re-election there needs to be a much larger swing to switch the senate over to the Democrats. In addition each state gets two senators so this favours the Republicans since smaller states for the most part (Maine and Vermont are the exceptions) generally go Republican while larger states (Texas is the exception) generally go Democrat. In the polls California would have 70 times as much weight as Wyoming, however in senate elections they have equal weight.
As for who I hope will win, well considering my political views, I think any regular reader of this blog can probably guess who I am hoping for, but since I don't believe in interferring in other's business and don't appreciate Americans commenting on our elections, I won't say until after the polls close. For any Americans reading this blog, my advice is go out and vote, no matter who you support.
House
Democrats will retake it, but by a narrow margin. The Democrats have a pretty substantial lead in the polls and considering every seat is up for grabs, it will require a last minute shift to the Republicans to prevent the Democrats from taking it. However, they won't win with the majority they are hoping for due to three reasons
1. The Republican base generally have a higher level of voter turnout than the Democrat Base
2. Incumbents don't get defeated very often since unlike Canada there is far less party discipline so one can vote for a Republican representative even if they hate Bush provided that representative is willing to break party ranks frequently
3. The congressional districts are heavily gerrymandered in favour of the Republicans, so the Democrats need about a 5% lead to just tie things up.
Senate
The Republicans will narrowly hold it, but by a narrower margin. Since only 1/3 of senate seats are up for re-election there needs to be a much larger swing to switch the senate over to the Democrats. In addition each state gets two senators so this favours the Republicans since smaller states for the most part (Maine and Vermont are the exceptions) generally go Republican while larger states (Texas is the exception) generally go Democrat. In the polls California would have 70 times as much weight as Wyoming, however in senate elections they have equal weight.
As for who I hope will win, well considering my political views, I think any regular reader of this blog can probably guess who I am hoping for, but since I don't believe in interferring in other's business and don't appreciate Americans commenting on our elections, I won't say until after the polls close. For any Americans reading this blog, my advice is go out and vote, no matter who you support.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 6:09 PM
10 Comments:
American elections are everyones business. Most countries have a strong case that other people should butt out, the US has such a huge influence on the entire world I think interference is justified.
Kyle - Obviously the United States has a strong influence and I think on the individual issues we should voice our discontent and as a matter fact with any country that acts irresponsibly, although I would say the US does far more than Canada. However, fair or not fair, we cannot vote in US elections and besides I think stating our opinion if anything would only make Americans go for who we don't want. I also think that it looks a little bit hypocritical to say we can intervene in US elections, but they cannot intervene in ours. And never mind I don't know their laws, but I believe it might be illegal for a foreign national to state a preference. Now obviously they won't go after a blog like this, but still I am not interested in breaking the spirit of the law.
Besides I think you should know full well who I want to win.
Just should note, that while Maine is a blue state, the lone senator running in this election is Olympia Snowe, a Republican- the Senate's quite odd like that, many Democrat senators in red states (e.g. North Dakota, West Virginia) and vice versa.
BC Tory - Considering how little party discipline there is, there are states that elect people from different parties at one level over the president. I was more speaking of ideology in general.
True enough, as it seems that many of the Democrats in "red states" are just as, if not more, conservative as most Repubicans from "blue ststes".
Who cares, makes no difference, and things can't get any worse then what they are.
I agree Clinton that things cannot get any worse than now. Still I do have my preference for who I want to win.
It makes no difference at all, as I pointed out on my new column about Stephen Harper, no matter how principled and honest a man is, politics always corrupts and the status quo will always continue.
Miles, you are completely ignorant of both Canadian and U.S. election laws. Regarding U.S. election laws, anyone can say anything from anywhere without fear of prosecution. Furthermore, you aren't based in the U.S., so how would U.S. laws apply to you in any way? You must have a rather high opinion of yourself.
If you are thinking of what Michael Moore said in Canada last year, it was different because he was actually on Canadian soil, and the U.S. has no similar ridiculous law.
Funny that the "fascist" Americans actually have freedom of speech regarding elections, yet utopia Canada does not...yet another sign of weakness.
I am not suggesting I am breaking any elections law, I simply just don't like telling those in a country where I don't pay taxes, don't hold citizenship how to vote. I will obviously be disappointed if the United States doesn't go the way I hope they day, but my main concern is the elections are fair and represent the will of the people. I believe people have the right to choose who they want even if I find their choice absolutely disgusting as I did in the 2004 US election when they re-elected Bush.
I should note though it is illegal in the United States for a non-citizen to donate to an American political party even if one resides in the US whereas in Canada you must just be a permanent resident, you don't have to be a citizen.
And anonymous, I don't know what nationality you are, but if you are American, I don't appreciate you insulting the great country of Canada. I don't like much of what the United States stands for, but I won't insult them because I disagree with the country's values.
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