Quebec By-Elections Called

Today, Stephen Harper called two by-elections in Quebec for September 17th. They are in Outremont and Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot. My prediction is the Liberals hold Outremont, while the Bloc Quebecois holds Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot. Below is my summary on both.

Outremont

Historically, Outremont has been a very safe Liberal riding, but in the last two elections, their margins of victory were considerably smaller, probably due adscam and the negative fallout in the province of Quebec from it. Therefore it is absolutely essential the Liberals win this riding, which I believe they likely will. The Liberals have former political commentator Jocelyn Coulon as their candidate, who I believe is the best choice of the candidates running. The NDP have chosen Thomas Mulclair who was a former cabinet minister from the Charest government. Outremont is without question the NDP's best shot of winning a seat in Quebec as it has been their strongest riding in Quebec in the last two elections, still I predict they won't take it, although I do think they will come in second this time around. The Bloc Quebecois was competitive in the last two elections here, but mainly due to adscam, so their chances of pulling it off are pretty low. The Conservatives have chosen a former career diplomat who is undoubtedly a strong candidate, but stands no chance at winning here when one considers how badly they have been clobbered in this riding in the past and its centre-left leanings. In addition I wouldn't use this one to judge Harper's performance since the party only got 12% last time around here, so even if they do get clobbered, it really doesn't mean much.

Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot

This has gone solidly Bloc Quebecois since 1993, so they should easily hold this one. The question comes down to more what are the numbers for each party. For those thinking the Conservatives might win here since Yvan Loubier lost to the centre-right Action Democratique, I should note he ran in the Appalaches-Chaudieres region in what is part of the federal riding Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, not Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, which is only about 100km southeast of Montreal. And Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere is already held by the Conservatives anyways. For the Bloc Quebecois, if they get above 60%, this is real good news for them, below 50% is bad news, and under 40% means serious trouble. For the Tories anything over 30% is a good sign for them they are gaining traction in Quebec, under 20% means they are losing a lot of support here, and below 15% shows they are pretty much back to where they were in 2004. For the Liberals, a showing worse than 2006, is devastating news, better than 2006 but worse than 2004 shows we are moving in the right direction, but could do better, better than 2004 is good news and better than 2000 is great news.

As for the other vacant seats, I will comment when they are called. I would however, encourage Harper to call them ASAP as having no MP doesn't serve their constituencies well. Harper should put the interest of their ridings ahead of his own partisan interests. Finally in conclusion, I should note by-elections usually have a low voter turnout and tend to be unpredictable, so lets see how good my predictions are.