Election Speculation

It looks increasingly likely that we will have a Fall election. While nothing is a guarantee, I would say the odds of an election are far greater than the odds of not having one. The Liberals have passed the point of return and so regardless of what happens between now and the next confidence vote, they have no choice but to vote down the government. If they back down now, it would be far more damaging than going through. The NDP and the Bloc Quebecois however have at least left the door open to possibly cooperating, however considering the ideological differences the Tories have with both, I doubt we will see a deal acceptable to both sides, although if the Liberals open a lead, Harper may bend over backwards to give them want they want. After all, he is not someone who wants to give up power easily. As for precipitating an early election backfiring on the Liberals, it might in the short-term but by election day, I suspect it will be a non-issue. After all, most didn't like Harper breaking his election law and calling one last year, yet he still won a stronger minority. If the Liberals perform poorly on election day, it will likely be due to other factors

As for my views on the election, I am not entirely keen on the idea. This goes beyond my partisan views and more to my view that we are probably going to have more minority than majority governments in the foreseeable future and having an election every year is not a good thing. This is what Italy had for most of the latter half of the 20th century, so hardly a road I want to see Canada go down. Ideally, it would be nice if the government reached out to the opposition while the opposition should a willingness to compromise and if everybody compromised a bit, we might even get some good legislation we wouldn't see otherwise. Unfortunately, our political atmosphere is far too politically charged for this to happen. I just hope after the election, that if Ignatieff wins, he reaches out to all the opposition parties and tries to find a way to have a stable government than can last 3 years or more. Likewise, if the Tories are re-elected with a minority, hopefully, they will replace Harper with someone who is more concillatory and willing to work with others. I don't think an election would harm our economic recovery as the Tories suggest, but I do think having elections every year going forward would be bad in the long-term.

As for predictions, it is too early to tell. This is Ignatieff's first campaign so his numbers can either go up considerably if he impresses Canadians or drop considerably if he is a turnoff. I think in terms of order of likeliness, I would go Tory minority, Liberal minority, Tory majority, and Liberal majority, the latter two both being highly unlikely and the last one being next to impossible while the first one only being slightly more likely than the second one. On the surface a Liberal minority looks quite easy, but when one looks at things on a riding by riding basis there it is a bit more challenging as the Tories have 66 seats more and even if the Tories lost every riding they won by 10% and the Liberals won every riding they came within 10%, the Tories would still come out ahead. Now that doesn't mean it isn't impossible to overcome such a gap, I am simply pointing out a minor shift from last election won't be sufficient enough. I'll have more once the election gets under way if it does this Fall.