Tory loses by-election and resigns

Last Thursday, John Tory lost the by-election in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, which is a rural riding located in Central Ontario. This is one of the safest Conservative ridings in all of Ontario, so if he cannot win there, I don't know where he can win. This has been in their top 10 best showings in Ontario for the Conservatives both federally and provincially in recent elections. In addition, I generally believe that when a leader performs below expectations in a general election they should resign. Tory didn't need to win the election to stay on, but he certainly needed to perform better than he did. So I think what happened was simply long overdue. However, getting rid of Tory will not automatically bring the Ontario PCs back to becoming a strong contender for power in 2011, in fact his loss may have put the party in a lose-lose situation. Unfortunately, it appears much of the party brass feels the party needs to move to the right to win the next election and return to the Harris era of smaller government. This may make the base happy, but will make winning the election in 2011 far more difficult. Now it is quite possible the party could choose a moderate such as Elizabeth Witmer, in fact that would be my pick. The party simply needs someone with Tory's moderate views, but better political judgement. Bill Davis was a moderate and was quite successful in winning elections so this nonsense that only right wing Tories can win is just that. If anything, the recent economic crsis has probably made people more wary of smaller government as many rightly or wrongly blame lack of government oversight and regulation for causing it. So why would they want someone who advocates the same ideology they believe caused the mess? I know some will say this was not the reason, but that is besides the point, whether it was the reason or not, most in the public believe it was the reason. Also simple math and understanding of electoral politics would show why choosing a moderate leader, not right wing one would increase their chances of winning the next election. The right wing base contend Tory lost due to the fact many of them stayed home. While it is true that this may have contributed to him losing really badly, it is highly unlikely that a better turnout from this group would be large enough to overcome the gap between the Ontario PCs and Liberals. As noisy as they may be, this group is far smaller than most right wingers claim it to be.

How the Ontario PCs will win the next election is two fold

1. Attract more Liberals and Green voters
2. Ensure the NDP and Green vote splits enough of the Liberal vote to win

By staying close to the centre, they can appeal to many Blue Liberals as well as some right of centre Green voters who simply voted Green Party due to their dissatisfaction with both McGuinty and Tory. Moving hard to the right will ensure those voters don't switch to the Ontario PCs. This will also achieve the second objective as with a moderate Tory, NDP and Green voters are likely to have little to fear in electing in a PC government, so they won't feel the need to vote strategically. When Bill Davis was in power, the NDP was far stronger than when Mike Harris was in power in part because many NDPers were quite content to have Bill Davis win over his Liberal opponent, whereas in the 90s, many NDPers voted strategically Liberal simply to kick Harris out of office (albeit they failed). If they choose a right winger, the centre-left vote will likely coalesce around the Liberals like it did under Harris and that might work if the PCs can get above 45% as Harris did, but won't work if they only get 40% of the popular vote which is far more realistic for them. By contrast with a moderate Tory, 40% would probably be sufficient enough to get a majority government. The reality is moderate Tories have a lower floor in terms of votes than right wing ones since they fail to energize their base, but they also have a higher ceiling than right wing ones due to their ability to appeal to swing voters. A party that simply wants to exist as a perennial opposition party may focus on its floor more than ceiling such as the NDP, but one that wishes to form government should focus more on its ceiling rather than floor.

I am a Liberal federally, but as a former Progressive Conservative federally, I would happily vote for the Ontario PCs if they choose someone moderate like Elizabeth Witmer, but not likely if they choose a Harrisite such as Tim Hudak and definitely not if they choose a right wing knuckle dragger like Randy Hillier. That is not to say cutbacks and privatization may not be necessary after the recession is over if the deficit becomes too large in which case another Harris style government may be needed, but this should only be done if absolutely necessary, not as a first option and having not seen how bad the recession will be, how quick and how soon recovery will come, or how much the debt will grow, it is premature to comment on the type of cuts and privatization that may be needed if any at all.