Liberal Caucus Event and Miscellaneous

First off I should mention it is Paul Martin's 68th birthday, so a happy birthday to our former PM. This past week I attended the Liberal caucus event where I got to meet the remaining leadership candidates with the exception of Martha Hall Findlay and Joe Volpe. I also met over 20 different MPs from across Canada as well as a number of past MPs. Much of the talk recently has been on the party divisions. I don't necessarily see this as totally a bad thing as long as the party has a position. If everyone blindly agrees with the party policy on every issue, this likely says it is a narrow tent party, which I have no interest in belonging to.

A couple of other events I should comment on is Boryz Wresnewskyj's resignation as associate foreign affairs critic and some Conservative bloggers advocating the Status of Women department be eliminated. On the first one, I believe Wresnewskyj was wrong to advocate that Hezbollah be removed from the terrorist list. They clearly are a terrorist organization. Wanting to end the Israeli occupation from Palestinian territory is something I support, but that does not give them the right to randomly target innocent civilians and then put their weapons in civilian areas for cover. However, for those who use this as an excuse to claim the Liberals are terrorist sympathizers, I should remind you that only Canada, Israel, Netherlands, and United States fully ban Hezbollah, while Australia and the United Kingdom only ban the military wing, so advocating they be removed if one believes that is the best way to achieve is not an extreme view, although a misguided one in my view.

On the second issue, I don't believe full gender equality has been achieved and therefore the government along with business and labour does still need to work to achieve this goal. However, as much as I despise Real Women, I do agree that political advocacy groups that advocate on other issues in addition to women's issues shouldn't get public funding. No person should be forced to subsidize any political advocacy group regardless of their political leanings. However, I still believe the Status of Women department is necessary and should continue to work to achieve equality for women, but without funding special interest groups that lobby on different issues.

New Brunswick Election Called

Today, Bernard Lord has dropped the writ for a general election on September 18th. I am hereby endorsing Bernard Lord and his Progressive Conservative party for re-election as I believe Bernard Lord is the best choice of the three leaders. He has shown a strong ability to bring together a wide variety of both strong conservatives all the way to Red Tories and has been successful in terms of winning support in both the predominately Anglophone South and Francophone North. The budget is balanced, taxes are down, and there is now money flowing in to invest in important programs for New Brunswickers. While some may ask why I am support the New Brunswick PCs rather than Liberals, I should point out just because the Progressive Conservatives no longer exist federally, doesn't mean I have stopped being a Progressive Conservative. I still remain one to this day, but since they no longer exist federally, I went to my second choice, which is the Liberal Party of Canada as opposed to the Reform/Alliance.

Maurizio Bevilacqua drops out and supports Rae

Today's big news is that Maurizio Bevilacqua has dropped out of the Liberal leadership race and thrown his support behind Rae. While I am not surprised he dropped out, I am totally stunned that he endorsed Bob Rae. Considering he is a blue Liberal and generally considered on the right of the party, it seems odd he would endorse a former NDP premier whose policies are generally quite different than the kind he has advocated. My guess is Rae promised him something in return if he is elected.

This is certainly a definite plus for Bob Rae as he can use this to show he is not an NDPer masqueranding as a liberal and that he has support in Ontario and from both the left and right side of the Liberal Party. Still with Bob Rae's support mostly coming from the elites and less so from the grassroots, I would say he is the fourth most likely to win behind Ignatieff, Dion, and Kennedy.

At this point I would say Hedy Fry, Martha Hall Findlay, and Carolyn Bennett really have no chance at winning, however in the case of the latter two, I think they should wait until after the DSM meetings so they can get a stronger public profile and then thrown their support behind whichever candidate is most willing to adopt their ideas and policies. Ken Dryden and Scott Brison have virtually no chance at becoming Liberal leader however with Brison in the lead in Atlantic Canada and Dryden in Manitoba, they can probably secure enough delegates to be kingmaker so I would encourage those two to stay on. Joe Volpe also has enough support to be kingmaker, but since he is a liability to the Liberal Party, so he should drop out as anyways.

In terms of their chances: Bob Rae certainly has done surprisingly well, but I still think his chances at winning are not great, but at least it is a possibility. Just the thought of an election where the choice is between an NDPer and Reformer is not something I particularly look forward to. Gerard Kennedy won't finish first on the first ballot, but has plenty of room for growth. For Stephane Dion, as long as he finishes in the top five on the first ballot, he can win since he is many people's second choice. Michael Ignatieff on the other hand needs to get above 40% on the first ballot or else it will be very difficult to swing enough delegates his way to win since he has the most support, but not much room for growth.

In terms of Rae being Liberal leader, while I am glad he is able to attract Blue Liberals, his record as premier still leaves me with deep concerns both about his electability in Ontario and whether I could support him or not. I certainly won't vote for Harper next election, but I would have a tough time at the moment supporting Rae unless he can convince me otherwise. Having good ideas and being smart will only go so far. One's past government record does matter. It is much like having an outstanding job interview, being a top student, and very smart, but having a bad reference letter from your most recent employer. In that scenario, I don't think a company would be too keen on hiring such a person. And since Rae's actual record is not great, I am very reluctant to support him. While some of the problems were beyond his control, the reality is Ontario's situation was far worse than most other provinces, which suggests to me while the recession didn't help, his policies weren't helpful either. Now, if he has learned from his mistakes, I am willing to give him a second look, but the question is, is the average non-political swing Ontario voter willing to give him a second chance. Only time well tell, but I have my doubts.

Joe Liebermann loses Democrat senate nomination

Well it appears Liebermann's unabashed support of George W. Bush's war in Iraq has cost him his nomination to run on the Democrat ticket for the senate in Connecticut. He lost to anti-war candidate Ned Lamont. While this is good in the sense of punishing those who supported the War in Iraq, I do have serious reservations about whether this is a good thing in the bigger scheme of things or not. Over the last 40 years, the Republicans have continuously moved to the right under each successive leader. Barry Goldwater who was seen as a right wing wacko in the 60s, complained about the Republicans being too right wing in the 80s under Reagan, whose family has since complained about Bush Jr. being too right wing. The party that once occupied the pragmatic centre-right has became an ideological right wing party. This has left a huge opening for the Democrats to exploit, which Clinton successfully did in the 90s by placing the party firmly in the centre, rather than on the left. While I agree the Democrats should oppose the increasingly unpopular Iraq War, they must not move too far to the left. The United States is quite conservative relative to Canada so many left liberal ideas that may sell well in Canada are simply non-starters in the United States. Issues such as legalizing gay marriage, universal health care, ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, and tough gun control laws make perfect sense in Canada, but are not mainstream in the United States. The question left liberals (and note I am a blue Liberal) need to ask is do they want to put the brakes on Bush and his extreme right wing agenda by ensuring the Democrats retake control of Congress and the Senate or are they more interested in promoting their own ideology even if it means losing. I want to put the brakes on Bush and his extreme agenda and know this cannot be done by moving the Democrats to the left. I am glad they choose an anti-war candidate, but my advice to Ned Lamont and all other Democrats, stay in the centre, don't move to the left or you will regret it later.

Middle East Resolution

Over the past week, the France and the United States have drafted a UN resolution that would end the hostilities between Israel and Lebanon. Besides the remarkable fact France and the United States rarely agree on issues pertaining to the Middle East, I am generally supportive of the resolution. There are three important components that I support in this deal

1. An end to the violence but allows Israel to defend itself if attacked.

2. A buffer zone in southern Lebanon, patrolled only by the Lebanese army and UN-mandated forces.

3. The unconditional return of two captured Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah.

While by no means perfect, clearly the violence between Israel and Lebanon has escalated to the point that many innocent civilians are needlessly being killed. It is also important to work with Lebanon who is not the problem as opposed to working with Hezbollah whose ultimate goal is the eradication of the state of Israel. Ultimately my hope is that Lebanon will have the ability to eradicate Hezbollah without outside help. I will also say I am disappointed with Harper's lack of explanation of his party's position. While I support Israel taking reasonable action to defend itself, I believe Harper's explanation that it was a measured response was innappropriate. Did he mean the initial attacks to defend itself or was he giving Israel a blank cheque to do whatever it wanted. I expect more from our prime-minister.

Vancouver's Gay Pride Parade

Today in Vancouver, we had our annual pride parade. Hedy Fry, my local MP as well as my MLA Lorne Mayencourt both had floats in the event. In addition to them the NDP including leader Jack Layton were there as well the Vancouver Centre Conservative riding association. I must say I give them kudos for coming out when one considers how hostile their leader and many of their MPs are to gay rights. Off course knowing some of the Conservatives from Vancouver Centre, most are former PCs like myself who are right leaning on economic issues, but socially liberal. In fact if the Conservatives were more like this, I would be more comfortable with the party since it is the social conservatism as opposed to economic conservatism that scares me off from them. I was also pleased to see from members from the financial sector, which is what sector I work in. I saw VanCity, CIBC, and TD Canada Trust with floats so it is good to see them support the gay community.

The mood generally seemed good despite the fact that gay rights may be in danger this fall when Stephen Harper re-visits SSM. While the vote will likely fail, it is a divisive issue that I think should be dropped and even some Conservative cabinet ministers including ones such as Loyola Hearn and Chuck Strahl who initially opposed SSM would like the issue dropped. My only hope is Harper doesn't re-visit the issue after the next election should he God forbid, win a majority.

Tomorrow, time permitting, I plan to write on the draft resolution on the Middle East Crisis after I've had time to read it. So far it looks good and when one considers France and the United States are practically on opposite sides on the Middle East, I suspect it is probably a good compromise if they both agree.