Wajid Khan's defection to the Conservatives
Before giving my opinion on this specific case, I should note that I do support the right of MPs to switch parties so it would be hypocritical of me to condemn Wajid Khan while supporting Belinda Stronach's defection. I believe the right to cross the floor should continue to be permitted since people's opinions change as well as parties change. In addition our rigid party discipline puts some MPs in a tough position of deciding which party to go to or not. If we had less party discipline as Gerard Kennedy was proposing in his platform, there might be fewer defections. If the US had party discipline like Canada does, there is no way Lincoln Chaffee would still be a Republican or that many of the Blue Dog Democrats would last very long in the party. While some say it is a slap in voter's face, lets remember there is always another election so if voters are outraged they can vote against the MP.
In the case of Wajid Khan, it was ultimately the right decision. There is no advantage in us having an MP who wants Stephen Harper to win the next election so we are better to have him leave now than stay on during an election and cause problems. We must tolerate diversity of opinions, but at the same time, everybody on our team must be 100% committed to seeing the Liberals win the next election. Those who are not should not be running under the Liberal banner. I also think his views are probably more in line with the Conservatives anyways so since elections are about values, one should serve under the party whose values are closest to theirs. I also think Emerson's decision was more serious since it was only 2 weeks after the election and also it was clearly done for personal gain whereas Wajid Khan wasn't offered any cabinet posts as of yet. If there was any defection that shouldn't be allowed, it was the way Emerson went about it.
In terms of his decision to be a special advisor to Stephen Harper on Middle East policy, I am torn here. I am a strong believer in bi-partisanship and believe we would have better governments if parties put the interests of the country ahead of partisan politics. Many countries around the world such as Germany have coalitions of parties with different ideologies and cabinet ministers from the different parties so it can work, but it has to be something both sides want. Since Harper has shown little interest in bi-partisanship, I don't see how we can make it work until both sides agree that is what we want. In the case of Dion's ultimatum, I think it was ultimately a judgement call he had to make. If it was because he was intolerant of bi-partisanship it was the wrong move, but if he had reason to believe he was a Conservative spy in the Liberal caucus, it was quite reasonable. I tend to think Dion feared the latter, so I think his gut instinct was probably right.
As for what will happen here are my predictions;
Wajid Khan: The chances of him being re-elected in Mississauga-Streetsville are quite low although I don't think he will get decimated as badly as David Emerson will since this riding has elected Conservatives in the past (84 and 88 federally, while 95 and 99 provincially), so this is not as safe a Liberal riding is some think. Rather it is a Blue Liberal/Red Tory riding so as long as Harper is leader it will remain a safe Liberal riding. I also think we would be stupid to automatically assume we will win this riding without making an effort. Harper is trying hard to make gains amongst the ethnic communities who have traditionally gone solidly Liberal. If we take this group for granted, it could bite us hard, so we need to re-double our efforts to ensure we don't lose our support in the ethnic community, but also try and get support from coast to coast and all communities rather than relying too heavily on anyone community so if we ever falter in one, we have a fall back position.
Liberal Party: I cannot see this really hurting us that much. Belinda Stronach's defection was far more of a blow to the Conservatives than a lowly backbencher's defection to the Conservatives, yet this didn't stop the Conservatives from winning the election. We are still in much better shape than last January and whatever setback this causes temporarily, I think the Liberals will come out of this just fine.
Conservative Party: Although he might help them gain some traction amongst ethnic voters, I really never bought the idea of the ethnic community blindly voting for someone because of their ethnicity. I think most immigrants are more sophisticated than that and vote based on the issues that matter. Therefore I don't think this will result in big gains amongst the immigrants. I also don't think it will be as damaging to the Tories as the Emerson defection which was clearly political opportunism at its worst.
I wish Wajid Khan best of luck in his new role, but I look foward to seeing a Liberal retake Mississauga-Streetsville in the next general election, hopefully in the very near future. My plan is to help Gerard Kennedy (or Martha Hall Findlay if Kennedy runs out West) so unless one of them runs in Mississauga-Streetsville, which I would fully support, I probably will be helping out elsehwere, although I will certainly encourage everyone I know in the riding to vote Liberal.
In the case of Wajid Khan, it was ultimately the right decision. There is no advantage in us having an MP who wants Stephen Harper to win the next election so we are better to have him leave now than stay on during an election and cause problems. We must tolerate diversity of opinions, but at the same time, everybody on our team must be 100% committed to seeing the Liberals win the next election. Those who are not should not be running under the Liberal banner. I also think his views are probably more in line with the Conservatives anyways so since elections are about values, one should serve under the party whose values are closest to theirs. I also think Emerson's decision was more serious since it was only 2 weeks after the election and also it was clearly done for personal gain whereas Wajid Khan wasn't offered any cabinet posts as of yet. If there was any defection that shouldn't be allowed, it was the way Emerson went about it.
In terms of his decision to be a special advisor to Stephen Harper on Middle East policy, I am torn here. I am a strong believer in bi-partisanship and believe we would have better governments if parties put the interests of the country ahead of partisan politics. Many countries around the world such as Germany have coalitions of parties with different ideologies and cabinet ministers from the different parties so it can work, but it has to be something both sides want. Since Harper has shown little interest in bi-partisanship, I don't see how we can make it work until both sides agree that is what we want. In the case of Dion's ultimatum, I think it was ultimately a judgement call he had to make. If it was because he was intolerant of bi-partisanship it was the wrong move, but if he had reason to believe he was a Conservative spy in the Liberal caucus, it was quite reasonable. I tend to think Dion feared the latter, so I think his gut instinct was probably right.
As for what will happen here are my predictions;
Wajid Khan: The chances of him being re-elected in Mississauga-Streetsville are quite low although I don't think he will get decimated as badly as David Emerson will since this riding has elected Conservatives in the past (84 and 88 federally, while 95 and 99 provincially), so this is not as safe a Liberal riding is some think. Rather it is a Blue Liberal/Red Tory riding so as long as Harper is leader it will remain a safe Liberal riding. I also think we would be stupid to automatically assume we will win this riding without making an effort. Harper is trying hard to make gains amongst the ethnic communities who have traditionally gone solidly Liberal. If we take this group for granted, it could bite us hard, so we need to re-double our efforts to ensure we don't lose our support in the ethnic community, but also try and get support from coast to coast and all communities rather than relying too heavily on anyone community so if we ever falter in one, we have a fall back position.
Liberal Party: I cannot see this really hurting us that much. Belinda Stronach's defection was far more of a blow to the Conservatives than a lowly backbencher's defection to the Conservatives, yet this didn't stop the Conservatives from winning the election. We are still in much better shape than last January and whatever setback this causes temporarily, I think the Liberals will come out of this just fine.
Conservative Party: Although he might help them gain some traction amongst ethnic voters, I really never bought the idea of the ethnic community blindly voting for someone because of their ethnicity. I think most immigrants are more sophisticated than that and vote based on the issues that matter. Therefore I don't think this will result in big gains amongst the immigrants. I also don't think it will be as damaging to the Tories as the Emerson defection which was clearly political opportunism at its worst.
I wish Wajid Khan best of luck in his new role, but I look foward to seeing a Liberal retake Mississauga-Streetsville in the next general election, hopefully in the very near future. My plan is to help Gerard Kennedy (or Martha Hall Findlay if Kennedy runs out West) so unless one of them runs in Mississauga-Streetsville, which I would fully support, I probably will be helping out elsehwere, although I will certainly encourage everyone I know in the riding to vote Liberal.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 4:33 PM
10 Comments:
Miles,
I don't think Wajid got much for his defection. If what Stephen Taylor said is true, Wajid did not even get assurances that he will not be challenged in the next election. Thus, it will probably be up to Wajid to secure his Conservative nomination. No idea if Raminder Gill is thinking of running in Streetsville again in the next election.
It is tough to say what Wajid Khan was offered. I suspect if he does by some miracle hold his seat and the Conservatives are re-elected, he will get a cabinet post. He also could get a job with the party if he loses his seat. As for the nomination, I suspect he will have little difficulty holding that. Raminder Gill anyways ran in Bramalea-Gore-Malton in 2004 so he could always run there if he wants to run again.
Of course, Gill has been running like GO Transit recently with more failures than successes.
I think Harper has more or less treated him as a political spent force in the CPC.
Mississauga Peter has been suggesting Mandy Maghera for Streetsville. Any ideas? I live in a non-held Liberal riding in Toronto and would love to have her run here, if she is interested.
I am new to Toronto so don't know the local politics well, although know the general trends. I also live in a non-Liberal riding, Trinity-Spadina and hope the Liberals can take it back.
Great post Miles, as usual.
However, I have to disagree with the heart of your post - which is your support of MPs to cross the floor.
Khan is a douchebag. So is Belinda, Emerson and Brison.
Unless your constituents feel that their interests are not being served by their MP in party X, then the MP would have to contemplate the following:
a. resigning his seat and a by-election ensues.
b. sitting as an independent and consulting his/her constituents on how to vote for major issues (such as the budget)
c. cross the floor to the party most desired by his/her constituents.
Now, I'm sure option 'c' is not the most desired by constituents in most cases. If I may be so bold as to suggest, I feel that the majority of constituents would be the most confortable with option 'b' over 'a' (simply because of voter fatigue).
In my opinion, option 'b' is the way our parliamentary system should treat MPs disgruntled in their party.
That being said, I like the idea of relaxing the party whips in the house. I believe internal politics, more than self-interests, are what originally sparks the frustration within an MP that eventually causes him/her to cross the floor.
And then there is Gurmont Grewal, who is apparently trying to mount a political comeback. Now THERE is a scumbag!
Dylan - You are certainly not alone in your views that MPs generally shouldn't be crossing the floor. I support the right of MPs to cross the floor if they have a legitimate disagreement with their party and feel they are a better fit in a different party. At the end of the day their constituents will judge in the next election. In the case of Stronach and Brison, both were re-elected so obviously their constituents agreed. With Emerson and Khan we will have to wait and see, but I expect both to lose their seats.
As for Gurmant Grewal, he is a complete scumbag, although I cannot see him winning back his seat after the whole taping scandal unless he runs in a safe riding.
Miles,
I full heatedly disagree with floor crossing. If an MP feels he/she cannot belong to a party then they should run as an indepemdent and thenrun for a different parties seat in the next election.
Opinionater 777 - You do have a valid point and certainly with the high level of party discipline it does create problems. Still under the British parliamentary system we elect the individual MP not the party or PM. In fact up until the 70s, most ballots didn't even mention the political party. If the constituency is unhappy with the decision to cross the floor they can vote them out as I expect will happen with both David Emerson and Wajid Khan
we'll see. It seems that traditionally voters have a shirt-term memory when it comes to these things. See Belinda Stronach for an example.
Opinionater777 - I seem to recall Belinda Stronach getting re-elected. Although I think Keith Martin, Scott Brison, and Belinda Stronach were different than Wajid Khan and David Emerson. Keith Martin comes from a traditional NDP riding that went Alliance because of its populist appeal as opposed to right wing policies so instead of many of those votes swinging back to the NDP they migrated to the Liberals, but the Conservatives were going to lose those no matter what.
Scott Brison is from a rural riding where local candidates carry greater weight, but also his riding is a Progressive Conservative, not a Conservative riding and many former Progressive Conservatives went to the Liberals.
Belinda Stronach barely won in 2004 and without her star candidacy, the Liberals likely would have won (which is some ways is a shame since Martha Hall Findlay would have been a great MP, but next election she will be one in another riding).
David Emerson is in a left leaning urban riding and will get clobbered.
Wajid Khan is from a centre-right suburban riding that votes strictly for party, so he will lose next election although not as badly as Emerson
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