2007 Predictions
First off Happy New Year to all my faithful readers and all the best in 2007. 2006 has been a great year for me, mainly because I got a permanent job here in Toronto, whereas up unitl now all my jobs have been temporary. Hopefully 2007 will bring similiar successes. This year will be my first full one in Toronto. I also do plan on during vacation going to Europe and doing a roadtrip within the Eurozone.
Anyways here are my political predictions. We will have several elections both provincially and federally this year, so lets see how close my predictions are to the actual outcomes.
Federally: The government falls over the budget, Stephane Dion becomes prime-minister with an even weaker minority government than Harper holds.
Saskatchewan: The Saskatchewan Party win a majority and Brad Wall becomes premier.
Manitoba: The NDP is re-elected with a reduced majority, so Gary Doer goes on to win a third term for the NDP, while the Progressive Conservatives regain most of the seats they lost in 2003 and come a lot closer to forming government.
Ontario: Dalton McGuinty is re-elected, but with a minority government this time around. Both the NDP and Progressive Conservatives gain seats and the PCs come within 10 seats of forming government.
Quebec: The Parti Quebecois wins the election therefore Andre Boisclair becomes premier, however Jean Charest wins the popular vote despite losing the election.
Prince Edward Island: Pat Binns is re-elected, but with a substantially reduced majority. Unlike previous elections which were sweeps, it is very close this time around.
Newfoundland & Labrador: Danny Williams is re-elected with the biggest landslide in Newfoundland history coming very close to a near sweep of the province.
Other predictions: Tony Blair steps down as Labour leader and is replaced by a more left leaning Labour leader. Stephen Harper resigns after losing the election and a Conservative convention is held in the fall. Once again the Alliance proves their grip on the party choosing a leader from the Alliance side of the merger.
I doubt all these predictions will turn out true, but perhaps the majority will. Guessing general elections though is a bit easier than predicting leadership conventions, since whoever gets the most seats wins and there is no run off ballots. If we had run off ballots like leadership conventions, the results would be far less predictable. After all if we used the same system we use electorally for party leaderships, Michael Ignatieff would have been Liberal leader and Jim Dinning would be Alberta's premier.
Anyways here are my political predictions. We will have several elections both provincially and federally this year, so lets see how close my predictions are to the actual outcomes.
Federally: The government falls over the budget, Stephane Dion becomes prime-minister with an even weaker minority government than Harper holds.
Saskatchewan: The Saskatchewan Party win a majority and Brad Wall becomes premier.
Manitoba: The NDP is re-elected with a reduced majority, so Gary Doer goes on to win a third term for the NDP, while the Progressive Conservatives regain most of the seats they lost in 2003 and come a lot closer to forming government.
Ontario: Dalton McGuinty is re-elected, but with a minority government this time around. Both the NDP and Progressive Conservatives gain seats and the PCs come within 10 seats of forming government.
Quebec: The Parti Quebecois wins the election therefore Andre Boisclair becomes premier, however Jean Charest wins the popular vote despite losing the election.
Prince Edward Island: Pat Binns is re-elected, but with a substantially reduced majority. Unlike previous elections which were sweeps, it is very close this time around.
Newfoundland & Labrador: Danny Williams is re-elected with the biggest landslide in Newfoundland history coming very close to a near sweep of the province.
Other predictions: Tony Blair steps down as Labour leader and is replaced by a more left leaning Labour leader. Stephen Harper resigns after losing the election and a Conservative convention is held in the fall. Once again the Alliance proves their grip on the party choosing a leader from the Alliance side of the merger.
I doubt all these predictions will turn out true, but perhaps the majority will. Guessing general elections though is a bit easier than predicting leadership conventions, since whoever gets the most seats wins and there is no run off ballots. If we had run off ballots like leadership conventions, the results would be far less predictable. After all if we used the same system we use electorally for party leaderships, Michael Ignatieff would have been Liberal leader and Jim Dinning would be Alberta's premier.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 8:38 AM
9 Comments:
Miles,
Happy new year to you too, best of luck in Toronto. I hope your '07 is most successful. As for your predictions about politics in the coming year, I can't really comment on Saskachewan, Quebec, Newfoundland & Labrador, PEI or Ontario b ecause I know little or nothing about those political areas. However, I agree with you that the NDP is a pretty safe bet in Manitoba as that province is pretty left-winged, at least at the provincial level. I also agree with you on the fate of the Federal Government, however I think the Bloc Quebecois or the NDP is going to table a motion of non-confidence early in the Spring session that will lead to the demise of the Conservative Government. As for Stephen Harper re-signing, time will tell. I also truly hope your wrong about the slimmer minority your predicting for the next Federal election, as I want to see a majority, preferably by the Liberals. The only wayI can see Tony Blair stepping down is if at his party's next convention, they don't endorse him with a huge vote of confidence such as the one Premier Campbell here in BC enjoyed at November's convention.
sorry I meant to say Harper resigning
So where in Europe are you planning to go?
Opinionater 777 - I wouldn't say the NDP is a safe bet in Manitoba. The province is really a mixed bag and is not as left wing as some think. It did after all go Conservative mostly in the last federal election. Part of the reason Gary Doer is relatively centrist compared to most NDP leaders.
As for Harper resigning, if he doesn't win the next election he will likely resign within a month and I suspect the next leader will be in place within six months. The Liberals could win a majority, but it is highly unlikely. Much like with the Conservatives, people would rather test drive them with a minority and then decide accordingly.
Woosang - I will be going from Amsterdam to Berlin to Florence and back up through France to Amsterdam. The exact details I will have planned once I get firm details on when I have my vacation at work.
My predictions:
-I think Harper, Charest and McGuinty will all be re-elected with minority governments.
-Harper will fall on the budget. He will, however, offer some solid things in said budget and engineer his own defeat to give the Tories the edge heading into the campaign.
-The Saskatchewan Party will return to power with a majority government.
-The Manitoba NDP will be re-elected with a minority government by the slimmest of margins. One seat will separate the NDPs and PCs, and the PCs will win the popular vote.
-Harper will shuffle Rona Ambrose and Peter MacKay around, shuffle David Emerson out of cabinet, and bring James Moore in.
-At one point in the yar, Bush will have an approval rating of 25%, setting his own record low.
-John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden will all announce their candidacies for president.
-Tony Blair will step down and be supplanted by Gordon Brown. The David Cameron-led Conservatives will open up a 15-point lead over the Brown-led Labour Party in the polls.
I think Harper, Charest and McGuinty will all be re-elected with minority governments.
All possibilities although in the case of Quebec, the ADQ isn't likely to win more than 12 seats so it would have to be a really close election for a minority government to occur. The problem Charest faces is he needs about a 5 point lead to win the election since the Quebec Liberals tend to pile up huge majorities in the predominately Anglophone and Allophone ridings, while the PQ wins most of the Francophone ridings, but not by massive margins. This was the same reason Gordon Campbell lost in 1996 despite winning the popular vote since he piled up huge majorities in a few selective ridings while the NDP wins were never by massive margins.
Harper will fall on the budget. He will, however, offer some solid things in said budget and engineer his own defeat to give the Tories the edge heading into the campaign.
The problem here is there isn't much time to turn things around, although certainly a possibility. I would say a Liberal or Conservative majority is highly unlikely.
The Manitoba NDP will be re-elected with a minority government by the slimmest of margins. One seat will separate the NDPs and PCs, and the PCs will win the popular vote.
Considering the Liberals will likely only win one or two seats in Manitoba, I believe a minority government is highly unlikely. I think after an NDP majority, the next most likely outcome is a PC majority.
Harper will shuffle Rona Ambrose and Peter MacKay around, shuffle David Emerson out of cabinet, and bring James Moore in.
Not a bad prediction. James Moore is anyways the closest elected Conservative to Vancouver and also moderate and a rising star in the party. David Emerson has absolutely no chance at holding Vancouver-Kingsway and with the softwood lumber deal done, there is really little use for him. His political career is over.
At one point in the yar, Bush will have an approval rating of 25%, setting his own record low.
I don't think it will fall below 30% since about 30% of Americans are hard right Conservatives and Bush will at least keep that group happy. In American politics an approval rating under 30% is pretty rare and considering how polarized the country is becoming, it may never happen again.
John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden will all announce their candidacies for president.
Some but not all of them will as well as a few names we've never heard of will probably announce their candidacy.
Tony Blair will step down and be supplanted by Gordon Brown. The David Cameron-led Conservatives will open up a 15-point lead over the Brown-led Labour Party in the polls.
The Conservatives will stay in the lead, but by a reduced margin since although Gordon Brown is more left wing than Tony Blair, much of Blair's unpopularity is over the Iraq War as opposed to any of his domestic policies. The Labour party has a core base of 35% while the Conservatives have a ceiling of about 45% so anything over a ten point lead seems unlikely. Lets remember in the last three elections the party has been in the low 30s, although since Cameron is more centrist than their previous leaders he can pick up a good chunk of the centrist vote that went Labour or Liberal Democrat in past elections.
I will be going from Amsterdam to Berlin to Florence and back up through France to Amsterdam. The exact details I will have planned once I get firm details on when I have my vacation at work.
That's cool. Will you be driving in Europe or take trains?
If you are going to Northern Italy, you might want to stop by Venice. It's really beautiful there and Verona (city where Romeo and Juliet is set) is also very close to Venice.
If you are taking trains, it's also a good idea to take a over-night train. You don't get to see some scenery but you will save a lot of time and you will get to spend more time in each cities.
Stephane Dion becomes prime-minister
Only one month and his bounce is gone. Don't count on it.
Brandon - A lot will depend on the campaign. Besides as a rule of thumb I never trust anyone poll without seeing a second poll. Once another poll confirms this I will believe it since 1/20 polls are rogue polls. Also the poll shows that while Harper is maintaining his support in areas the Conservatives won last time, they have failed to make any gains, whereas the Liberals are not only holding their support, but are making gains in Quebec. In fact if one uses the 2006 numbers, the Tories need a 3 point lead in the polls to win the election. If the Liberals had finished 2% behind the Tories in the last election and the shift in support was even across Canada, the Liberals would have won. Likewise in 2004, the Tories would have also beaten the Liberals had they been 2 points behind. This is do to efficiency of votes since the Tories had few wasted votes in Quebec in 2004 while the Liberals had few wasted votes in Francophone Quebec and Alberta. On the other hand the Tories are still around 25% in the major urban areas despite winning very few seats there so they have plenty of wasted in votes in places such as Vancouver and Toronto.
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