US race so far

In the New Year, both the Democrats and Republicans will have their Iowa caucuses followed shortly after by the New Hampshire primary. After that there will be several other primaries and some time next year we will find out who will be the leaders of both the Republicans and Democrats. With the amount of mistakes the Bush administration has made and his low approval rating, whoever wins the Democrat nomination will most likely become president, but I still wouldn't rule out a Republican win as most polls still show them very competitive with the Democrats and never mind the fact that there are more Americans who identify themselves as Conservative than Liberal therefore a greater share of the moderates must go Democrat than Republican to win.

Below I will summarize how I see things for each party and what my view is. Please note since I am not a US citizen, I will not endorse any of them, but rather say which one I personally like the best and who I would support if I were eligible.

Democrats:

At the beginning, it looked almost a sure thing that Hilary Clinton would win the nomination, but recently the gap between her and Barack Obama has closed considerably. Barack Obama received a high profile endorsement from Oprah Winfrey which will no doubt help. I should also add Barack Obama is extremely popular in his home state of Illinois, even in traditional Republican counties, so as more people hear about him and his vision, it is quite possible we will see his support rise elsewhere. If I had to choose for the Democrats, I would choose Barack Obama and since I generally prefer the Democrats over Republicans, he would be my choice for president of the United States. I like the fact he is a uniter rather than a divider, the fact he appeals to hope for a better future rather than speaking of what it is wrong from the past. I also feel on foreign policy that he has a good understanding of America's role. Unlike Hilary Clinton, Barack Obama opposed the Iraq War from the very beginning. I understand his lack of experience may be an issue for some, but lets remember he is a senator and has been a state senator before. In addition, some with many years of experience have been absolutely awful, i.e. people such as Cheney and Rumsfeld, so having lots of experience won't do one any good if they have bad policies. My worry with Hilary Clinton is she is too polarizing and has little room to grow amongst the undecideds, whereas I think Obama has the potential to pick up many undecideds. No credible poll today, has put either party over 50% yet with none of the third parties having much support, whoever wins likely will get over 50%, so therefore who can pick up those undecideds is very important. As for who I think will win. I think Hilary Clinton still has the edge, but Obama could definitely pull it off, especially if he wins the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.

Republicans:

It goes without question that I am not the biggest fan of the Republican Party today, however, that doesn't mean I hate all Republicans. For example in the last US midterm elections, I would have voted for Arnold Schwartznegger for governor of California, Lincoln Chaffee for senator in Rhode Island, and Jim Leach in Iowa's 2nd district. Off course all three of the above mentioned are moderate Republicans and frequently referred to as RINOS (Republican in Name Only). In fact the party historically has done many good things. After all it was Lincoln who emancipated the slaves, Teddy Roosevelt who created the national park system, and Eisenhower who pursued detente and warned of the military industrial complex. In fact his son voted for Kerry in 2004 and argued in an editorial that the Republican party he once knew no longer existed. So the problem with the Republicans is not that they are an inherently bad party, the problem is they have been hijacked by the neo-conservatives and religious right who felt it would be easier to hijack them over the Democrats.

As for the race, this has gone from one where Guiliani was in the lead to a truly four way race between Guiliani, McCain, Huckabee, and Romney. Romney and Huckabee are the more conservative ones of the two, so it goes without saying I don't like either, yet we could very well see one of them win the Republican nomination as the party base by and large is very conservative. Huckabee at least seems competent in knowing where he wants to take the country and is a good debater, although I totally abhor what he wants to do. Romney on the other hand has flip flopped on so many issues that I am far less worried about him than Huckabee. Seeing how poorly he performed in the Republican debates, I suspect he would be a lot easier to beat than Huckabee in a general election. As for the other two, I have a more mixed opinion on them. With McCain, I do like his maverick type stance within the party and the fact he is able to sometimes work with Democrats as a senator. I also feel that on the immigration issue, he understands the complexity of the issue and the fact you cannot throw all 12 million (which is the best estimate) out of the United States without major consequences. Rather, you offer amnesty to those who have been there for over 5 years, while try to stem the flow of future ones. Never mind, the Hispanic vote is a large and growing demographic, so alienating this group will not bode well for the Republicans in the future. I do also respect the fact that he has actually seen war first hand, so I am more sympathetic (although still firmly disagree) when he supports the Iraq War as opposed to chickenhawks like Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Wolfowitz. My biggest beef with him is I find him too socially conservative.

As for Guiliani, he would probably be my choice since he is the most moderate of the four. He is for gun control, pro-choice, and generally supportive of gay rights. Likewise he is a staunch fiscal conservative, tough on crime and hawkish on foreign policy. I like the first one, mixed on the second one (although I give him credit for dramatically reducing New York City's crime rate as mayor), while staunchly disagree with him on the third. Even though I would vote Democrat no matter who wins were I an American, I do think Guiliani would be the least bad of the four.

I'll have more next year as the race heats up. Until then Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year to all my faithful readers.

Four by-elections Called

Stephen Harper has finally called four by-elections in ridings currently vacated by the Liberals. In the case of Toronto Centre and Willowdale, both have former leadership contenders, Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay. Both are very safe ridings, so I might as well congratulate Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay on becoming MPs. Both I am sure will make strong contributions each in their own way to the party. Vancouver-Quadra is also another safe Liberal riding and despite what some Tories may think otherwise, I really doubt the Liberals will have much trouble holding this. I have known Joyce Murray for quite some time from provincial politics and believe she will be a strong MP be it in opposition or government.

The big question mark is Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, which was won by a mere 67 votes over the Tories. This is clearly up for grabs and is one to watch closely. I think the Liberals have a slight edge here since some of Harper's policies such as the Wheat Board or equalization changes have not exactly been popular in Saskatchewan, never mind this riding has a large aboriginal population who generally don't like the Tories considering how hostile they have been to aboriginal issues. By the same token this is a largely rural riding and does include some conservative strongpoints in the southern section, so it could go Tory. The candidate is still yet be decided although David Orchard has been trying hard to win the nomination here. I am no fan of him and his politics, that being said, he did support Dion so I grudgingly accept that he should be able to run for the Liberals in some riding. He is also reasonably popular in his home province so if he can pick up a seat for the Liberals which would have gone elsewhere otherwise, then all the more power to him.