Four by-elections Called
Stephen Harper has finally called four by-elections in ridings currently vacated by the Liberals. In the case of Toronto Centre and Willowdale, both have former leadership contenders, Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay. Both are very safe ridings, so I might as well congratulate Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay on becoming MPs. Both I am sure will make strong contributions each in their own way to the party. Vancouver-Quadra is also another safe Liberal riding and despite what some Tories may think otherwise, I really doubt the Liberals will have much trouble holding this. I have known Joyce Murray for quite some time from provincial politics and believe she will be a strong MP be it in opposition or government.
The big question mark is Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, which was won by a mere 67 votes over the Tories. This is clearly up for grabs and is one to watch closely. I think the Liberals have a slight edge here since some of Harper's policies such as the Wheat Board or equalization changes have not exactly been popular in Saskatchewan, never mind this riding has a large aboriginal population who generally don't like the Tories considering how hostile they have been to aboriginal issues. By the same token this is a largely rural riding and does include some conservative strongpoints in the southern section, so it could go Tory. The candidate is still yet be decided although David Orchard has been trying hard to win the nomination here. I am no fan of him and his politics, that being said, he did support Dion so I grudgingly accept that he should be able to run for the Liberals in some riding. He is also reasonably popular in his home province so if he can pick up a seat for the Liberals which would have gone elsewhere otherwise, then all the more power to him.
The big question mark is Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, which was won by a mere 67 votes over the Tories. This is clearly up for grabs and is one to watch closely. I think the Liberals have a slight edge here since some of Harper's policies such as the Wheat Board or equalization changes have not exactly been popular in Saskatchewan, never mind this riding has a large aboriginal population who generally don't like the Tories considering how hostile they have been to aboriginal issues. By the same token this is a largely rural riding and does include some conservative strongpoints in the southern section, so it could go Tory. The candidate is still yet be decided although David Orchard has been trying hard to win the nomination here. I am no fan of him and his politics, that being said, he did support Dion so I grudgingly accept that he should be able to run for the Liberals in some riding. He is also reasonably popular in his home province so if he can pick up a seat for the Liberals which would have gone elsewhere otherwise, then all the more power to him.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 4:21 PM
12 Comments:
During the leadership campaign & convention I met several David Orchard folks working hard for Dion. (From Ontario no less, because "David asked them to").
I believe that it was the non traditional-type liberals like myself, Orchard supporters (and finally ex-NDP Rae supporters on the final ballot) who made the difference for Dion.
Not that blind loyalty is appropriate. Rather it is these folks that will make the difference in a tight election. I disagree with some of Orchard's views but can share a party with him.
If the news reports about this nomination controversy in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River are true ... ie stopping Orchard's nomination via a recently elected NDP-MLA parachute candidate - then IMHO, Dion will lose crucial support not just in SK but across the country. And better someone that won the nomination becomes our candidate rather than a parachute candidate. (Orchard is not a shoe-in, he has a very credible opponent.) Given the recent history of appointed candidates in by-elections .... let democracy rule!
..Ron
I agree that the Saskatchewan riding is too close to call. If the CPC picks a Red Tory (unlikely unless they parachute someone in), then Orchard should win as the base stays home and the Liberals sense opportunity. Otherwise, unless they pick a total extremist beyond anything in Parliament, they should be near even or have a slight edge.
The others are all safe Liberal seats, with Willowdale the most safe (Toronto Centre is the only other one that might be competitive and that is if the NDP decide to fight it out).
Ron - I don't have a problem with sharing a party with people like David Orchard either as long as his views are not representative of the majority of the party. When I was a former Progressive Conservative, I thought David Orchard seemed more of a misfit than he does as a Liberal.
In the case of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, the only point I can see in appointing a former NDP MLA is in order to have a female candidate, since Dion did promise 1/3 of candidates would be female.
Anonymous - I am not sure picking a Red Tory would necessarily make things worse. Despite the fact that the right wing base may not like a Red Tory, where else are they going to go, while on the other hand choosing a hard right winger might scare away some moderate Conservatives as even rural ridings like this do have moderate Conservatives.
Where would the conservative base go? They would be more likely to stay home with a Red Tory candidate, as happened in Ontario in the provincial election.
Also with Toronto Centre, since you know the riding well, what are the chances that the NDP could steal it? (if they can get their left-wing base out while the Liberals sit on their hands). After all, by-elections traditionally have very low turnouts, so if the NDP can get their votes out, I wouldn't count them out.
Only the Sask. riding is TCTC - and I can see any of the parties taking it.
The rest are safely Liberal. Quadra is like St. Pauls in Toronto - too many urban intelligentsia and affluent small-"l" liberals to be competitive for the Conservatives. Willowdale is also a ridiculously safe riding for the Liberals, and Tories who think they could take it because of an alleged Jewish swing to the Tories (which isn't going to happen) are clearly smoking something they philosophically oppose (or worse, are just delusional!)
Rae will easily win as well. The Tories replaced Mark Warner with a Pentecostal minister who isn't going to appeal to people in Rosedale. The only scenario in which I could see the NDP taking that riding in a byelection is if they had a superstar like Stephen Lewis running and if Dion handpicked someone like Stephen LeDrew.
King of Kensington - I agree Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River is too close to call. In fact since 1997, each election it has voted for a different party. Vancouver-Quadra, I agree is a safe Liberal riding. At the municipal and provincial level it does support centre-right parties, but in both cases the centre-right parties include many federal Liberals and their opposition is more akin to the NDP, so those comparisons don't work well.
As for Willowdale, also a very safe Liberal riding. Although I could see the Tories getting over 30% and likewise getting as low as 20% too. In Toronto Centre, Mark Warner wasn't going to win, but at least his views were somewhat in line with the riding, but not the party, which is why I think they dumped him.
Where would the conservative base go? They would be more likely to stay home with a Red Tory candidate, as happened in Ontario in the provincial election.
Even if they did stay home, the Conservative base in Canada is quite small, so the votes they would lose with those staying home would be more than offset by the moderates they would pick up. In the case of the Ontario provincial election, it wasn't John Tory's Red Toryism that cost him the election, it was his dumb policy on expanding funding to faith based schools that cost him the election. I can assure you that had Jim Flaherty or Frank Klees won, they would have also lost the election as well. Had they choosen someone with John Tory's moderate policies, but better political judgement then they might have won. Someone like Elizabeth Witmer comes to mind here, who I should note has managed to hold a normally strong Liberal riding in two disastrous elections for her party.
Except in that riding, the Alliance outpolled the PC's by over 10-1 (the PC's only got 3.2% in 2000), and Reform outpolled the PC's over 5-1 there in 1997. Not exactly sign of any Red Toryism there...
Two things.
Quadra: One theory I heard floated around was that there was a push to get Emerson to move over to Quadra and run there. Supposedly people in Quadra would be soooo impressed with Emerson's corporate credentials and think he's socially liberal enough to win over enough federal Liberal voters to win. The theory is ridiculous of course. For every CEO who is soooo impressed with Emerson there are many more people who wouldn't trust a turncoat. Besides a better riding for Emerson would be West Van-Sunshine Coast. But while I'm sure Tory national strategists and leaders are smart enough to know they have no shot there, local Tory activists have nothing better to do.
As for John Tory, I agree that the schools issue sank the party but I think those who think that if the Conservatives have a moderate Joe Clark type as leader they'll all of a sudden become competitive again in urban ridings is a little naive. A lot of socially liberal old PC types have become pretty comfortable with the Liberals. In the 416 area code Tory without the school funding policy probably could have only taken his own riding of Don Valley West. Certainly St. Paul and Rosedale would have been out of range. There has been a big trend all over the western world of small-c conservative parties being shut out of urban areas over the past 15 years or so.
Anonymous - The Reform and Alliance outpolling the Tories doesn't necessarily mean all right wingers are hard core ones. The PCs were largely ignored in 2000 and many Red Tories likely voted Liberal or stayed home.
King of Kensington - I agree the idea of David Emerson winning in Vancouver-Quadra is complete nonsense. It was John Reynolds who was boasting how popular he was there, but the guy is a complete Stephen Harper hack and has no real idea of what most British Columbians think. As for West Van-SS-SC, I think Emerson running there would actually make it more not less difficult to regain the riding due to his turncoat status.
In terms of the 416, I agree John Tory without the school funding realistically could have only won his own riding and maybe Willowdale. I would say it is partly many Red Tories are comfortable with the Liberals, but also conservatism has been given a real black mark in the large cities due to the fact conservative parties have moved to the right. So I think if the Tories started electing Red Tory leaders and doing this for several years, eventually they would start winning urban ridings, but it would take a few elections and it would also mean telling all the right wing elements to leave the party. The reason this likely won't happen is the right wing base is too entrenched in the party to completely remove them. They can be marginalized, but I highly doubt any leader has the courage to throw them out. Because of how vocal they are, most are afraid to take them on as it would hurt them in the short-run, but benefit them in the long-run.
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