With the election over, where the parties need to go now
With the election over, the question now comes what the future holds for each party and what they should do. I'll start with the minor parties as well as briefly touching on the issue of MMP before going to the bigger parties.
Green Party
One could argue their strong showing was more a result of Ontarioans lack of interest in the two major parties, but when one considers that the Greens have seen their numbers improve in both provincial and federal elections, I think there is a clear message here. People see the environment as a major issue that they want dealt with and they also want change how politics is run. I have generally argued people should vote for one of the two major parties as they are the only ones that can deliver change, however one should never ignore the message of smaller parties that gain votes.
NDP
They gained votes, but still fell short of what they had hoped for. After three lacklustre performances, I believe Howard Hampton should call it quits and let someone else take over. The bigger problem the party in general faces is they have the mentality of a perpetual opposition party and therefore make unrealistic promises that they could never deliver on if they formed government. As long as they stick to the socialist ideology, which has largely been discredited, they will continue to languish in opposition.
MMP
Not only did it not pass, the fact over 60% voted against it should hopefully slam the door to another referendum on the issue in 2011. In BC there was some logic in having a second referendum on STV since it did get over 50% just not 60%, but with under 40%, the issue is dead as far as I am concerned. That doesn't mean the idea of electoral reform is dead, but perhaps more modest changes rather than major overhauls should be considered in the future.
Liberals
One can argue whether the Liberals won because people were pleased with the job they were doing or simply found them tolerable and better than the alternatives. Whichever one it is, I do believe they have the mandate to stay the course, but they shouldn't pursue anything too radical or dramatic. In addition they need to stay close to the centre as any move to the left could leave a large opening for the Tories as well as increase the chances of the Tories winning even if they choose a more right wing leader next time around. Ontarioans are generally close to the centre and often go for the party closest to it, so the further to the left they go, the more to the right the Tories can go.
Ontario Progressive Conservatives
John Tory is a decent person and I believe has the potential to be a good premier, but he simply made too many fatal mistakes to warrant getting elected this time around. Unlike Harper, who doesn't deserve to be in office period, John Tory just isn't ready to govern at the moment. That means should he stay on and have a better platform next time around, I would consider voting for him. By the same token, I think it would probably be a mistake to stay on considering that he got fewer votes than Eves did in 2003 and fewer seats (if you take into account the re-distributed results, since Eves would have won 29 seats).
As for the next leader, there are many possibilities, although some of my suggestions would be Elizabeth Witmer, Laurie Scott, Ted Arnott (who all hail from the moderate side of the party) as well at the federal level Mike Chong would be a good choice if he is interested and heck even Garth Turner would be one I could support although being a federal Liberal now that won't happen. I would advise against the party choosing someone from the Harris mold since whatever one thinks of Mike Harris, there is clearly no appetite in Ontario to return to the Common Sense Revolution. Despite being more of the Bill Davis mold, people's memories of Mike Harris still probably hurt John Tory to some degree so the further the party distances itself from him the tougher it will be for opponents to compare the leader to him. The next leader should essentially be like Mike Harris when it comes to having a clear vision of what direction they want to take the province, but like John Tory in their philosophical approach as well as trying to bring people together as opposed to conquer-divide tactics. The reason for the loss was partly because the party never clearly stated what they would do, but instead spent more time attacking thae Liberals than stating what they would do.
Although I have quit the federal Conservatives and proudly joined the Liberals I do plan to remain a provincial PC in the hopes of preventing the party from swinging too far to the right (which unfortunately I failed to do federally) so that Ontarioans can have a viable moderate right of centre party.
Green Party
One could argue their strong showing was more a result of Ontarioans lack of interest in the two major parties, but when one considers that the Greens have seen their numbers improve in both provincial and federal elections, I think there is a clear message here. People see the environment as a major issue that they want dealt with and they also want change how politics is run. I have generally argued people should vote for one of the two major parties as they are the only ones that can deliver change, however one should never ignore the message of smaller parties that gain votes.
NDP
They gained votes, but still fell short of what they had hoped for. After three lacklustre performances, I believe Howard Hampton should call it quits and let someone else take over. The bigger problem the party in general faces is they have the mentality of a perpetual opposition party and therefore make unrealistic promises that they could never deliver on if they formed government. As long as they stick to the socialist ideology, which has largely been discredited, they will continue to languish in opposition.
MMP
Not only did it not pass, the fact over 60% voted against it should hopefully slam the door to another referendum on the issue in 2011. In BC there was some logic in having a second referendum on STV since it did get over 50% just not 60%, but with under 40%, the issue is dead as far as I am concerned. That doesn't mean the idea of electoral reform is dead, but perhaps more modest changes rather than major overhauls should be considered in the future.
Liberals
One can argue whether the Liberals won because people were pleased with the job they were doing or simply found them tolerable and better than the alternatives. Whichever one it is, I do believe they have the mandate to stay the course, but they shouldn't pursue anything too radical or dramatic. In addition they need to stay close to the centre as any move to the left could leave a large opening for the Tories as well as increase the chances of the Tories winning even if they choose a more right wing leader next time around. Ontarioans are generally close to the centre and often go for the party closest to it, so the further to the left they go, the more to the right the Tories can go.
Ontario Progressive Conservatives
John Tory is a decent person and I believe has the potential to be a good premier, but he simply made too many fatal mistakes to warrant getting elected this time around. Unlike Harper, who doesn't deserve to be in office period, John Tory just isn't ready to govern at the moment. That means should he stay on and have a better platform next time around, I would consider voting for him. By the same token, I think it would probably be a mistake to stay on considering that he got fewer votes than Eves did in 2003 and fewer seats (if you take into account the re-distributed results, since Eves would have won 29 seats).
As for the next leader, there are many possibilities, although some of my suggestions would be Elizabeth Witmer, Laurie Scott, Ted Arnott (who all hail from the moderate side of the party) as well at the federal level Mike Chong would be a good choice if he is interested and heck even Garth Turner would be one I could support although being a federal Liberal now that won't happen. I would advise against the party choosing someone from the Harris mold since whatever one thinks of Mike Harris, there is clearly no appetite in Ontario to return to the Common Sense Revolution. Despite being more of the Bill Davis mold, people's memories of Mike Harris still probably hurt John Tory to some degree so the further the party distances itself from him the tougher it will be for opponents to compare the leader to him. The next leader should essentially be like Mike Harris when it comes to having a clear vision of what direction they want to take the province, but like John Tory in their philosophical approach as well as trying to bring people together as opposed to conquer-divide tactics. The reason for the loss was partly because the party never clearly stated what they would do, but instead spent more time attacking thae Liberals than stating what they would do.
Although I have quit the federal Conservatives and proudly joined the Liberals I do plan to remain a provincial PC in the hopes of preventing the party from swinging too far to the right (which unfortunately I failed to do federally) so that Ontarioans can have a viable moderate right of centre party.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 7:03 PM
11 Comments:
Sorry Miles, but Tory's loss here has just emboldened the Blogging Tories to push for a right-winger to take over. The fact that their party has been reduced to a rural rump seems to have gone over their heads. Much like Republicans still compare all candidates to Reagan, the Cons want Mike Harris redux, all because of a single, 8 year period which defied all previous Ontario PC history.
Anonymous - You are probably right, but I hope you are wrong here. One difference between the Republicans and the Ontario PCs is the United States is far more conservative than either Ontario or Canada as a whole so they have a much stronger base. In addition that is all the more reason for people like me to stay on and fight. I will only give up once it is clear I have lost and not before.
Good analysis. I don't think a change of leaders for the NPD would help. It's the polcies.
Miles, how does it work out being a federal Liberal, but a provincial PC? I know my wife would kill me if I signed up with the Libs.
Hi. I also think that the Cons will try steer their party back to the hard right, after seeing two perceived moderates fail miserably to improve their fortunes. We could see the adoption of an ultra-right agenda: eliminating health care altogether as proposed by Harris/Manning and establishing charter schools and vouchers as championed by the National Post. Nor would I be surprised to see a draft-Harris movement spring up.
That would be great for the Liberal Party, bad for the province. There's something to be said for pulling the two major parties to the centre and basing it on competency and good leadership. For the record, I am the first anonymous poster, and until the campaign began I was considering voting for Tory until I heard not just the religious school issue, but also about more private involvement in health care and the same talk of efficiencies that led to Harris' wave of public spending cuts.
Wanting to remain anonymous - The answer to your question is quite simple, I was a Progressive Conservative federally, but that party has been swallowed up by the Reform Party who I never supported. I therefore go for my second choice which is the Liberals.
Denis Belton - There is a lot of pressure for the party to move to the right, that is why it is important for moderates to fight back against this. I am not per se against charter schools and vouchers, but I do think the policy is quite risky and has its risks. In terms of universal health care, I have no problem with more private involvement as done in most European countries, but I oppose the American model of private health care. The problem is many like the Fraser Institute probably in the long-run hope for the American model, but realize that won't work so they argue for the European model in the short-term since it is more acceptable to the public (although certainly not all)
Anonymous - For me it was mainly the religious schools. I have no problem with private delivery in a publicly funded system nor do I oppose a parallel private system so long as doctors have to choose one system or the other and cannot double dip. I am all for cutting wastes in government, although all too often it seems the programs that effect the most vulnerable are cut first, while the most wasteful and the programs that should be eliminated usually stay in place. The problem is the poor and disadvantaged don't have a strong organization to fight back against cuts, whereas the special interest groups who don't need government funding have plenty of money to fight any cuts to their cause. What we need is a government who will cut all the funding to things that do little to benefit the average Ontarioan while fund important programs like health care and education. In addition, I have talked to people who work in government and the amount of waste and inefficiency is actually quite staggering. The problem is no one seems to want to deal with this.
Miles,
What are the chances of a federal election happening in the coming weeks?
Opionator777 - Probably under 50%, but a lot depends on what is in the Throne Speech. As long as it is not over the top and controversial, there won't be one as the Liberals said they would only vote against it, if it is very right wing and radical, but if the Tories decide they want one, they will make a controversial over the top one and it will happen.
"Unlike Harper, who doesn't deserve to be in office period"
That's quite rich. So what makes one 'deserve' office? I thought it was winning an election, but, apparently, there's some divine right involved here.
As for Tory, well, like so many before him he thought his personality was more compelling than policy. Tough luck. The PCs should find someone with less personality and more interest in policy. It's not about being more or less like Mike Harris or any other past political figure, it's about actually having some clear idea of where you want to take the province. Watery personality campaigns don't move voters - but the five priorities sure did. And it will work again.
SV - I personally don't believe Harper is fit for public office. He did win the election, I am not arguing that, but he will never get my vote.
As for policies, yes the Ontario PCs need a clearer vision of where they want to take the province, but it needs to be one that is moderate and mainstream too. You cannot win without having both.
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