New Hampshire Primary
With all the networks projecting McCain as the winner for the Republicans and Clinton as the winner for the Democrats. I am not surprised about the first one, but very surprised about the second as some polls showed Obama with a 10 point lead over Clinton. I off course was hoping for Obama, so I am somewhat disappointed Clinton won, but this only once again makes this truly a competitive race. We probably won't know for at least another few primaries who will be the leader of the Democrats and hopefully the next president. As for the sudden comeback, I am not exactly sure what happened, but I do know Clinton is a real fighter and won't go down without a fight, so I think the third place showing in Iowa really caused many in the Clinton camp to step up the effort.
As for the Republicans, I think McCain is certainly a better choice than Romney or Huckabee whose views I find scary. On the other hand, although McCain is definitely to the right of me, I can at least tolerate some of his views and the fact in the senate he was better able to work with Democrats means at least a McCain presidency with a Democrat controlled congress might be able to do something productive unlike the current congress which is deadlocked due to Bush's instrigence. McCain needed to win this to stay in the game and he did. As for Romney, two second place finishes are definitely a blow to him, however, I don't think he will drop out yet. Huckabee's poor showing is no surprise and considering that the religious right is much smaller in New Hampshire than some other states including Iowa and coming up states such as South Carolina. So I suspect many in the Huckabee camp are hoping to pick up much of the religious right vote in states where that vote is much larger. I hope they fail, but I will not deny the possibility of them succeeding at doing this. Guiliani fared poorly as expected, but he pretty much wrote off both New Hampshire and Iowa, so the next primaries will be the big test. Super Tuesday will ultimately decide whether Guiliani is still competitive or not.
As for the Republicans, I think McCain is certainly a better choice than Romney or Huckabee whose views I find scary. On the other hand, although McCain is definitely to the right of me, I can at least tolerate some of his views and the fact in the senate he was better able to work with Democrats means at least a McCain presidency with a Democrat controlled congress might be able to do something productive unlike the current congress which is deadlocked due to Bush's instrigence. McCain needed to win this to stay in the game and he did. As for Romney, two second place finishes are definitely a blow to him, however, I don't think he will drop out yet. Huckabee's poor showing is no surprise and considering that the religious right is much smaller in New Hampshire than some other states including Iowa and coming up states such as South Carolina. So I suspect many in the Huckabee camp are hoping to pick up much of the religious right vote in states where that vote is much larger. I hope they fail, but I will not deny the possibility of them succeeding at doing this. Guiliani fared poorly as expected, but he pretty much wrote off both New Hampshire and Iowa, so the next primaries will be the big test. Super Tuesday will ultimately decide whether Guiliani is still competitive or not.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 7:48 PM
4 Comments:
Now on to Michigan for the Republicans, and Nevada for the Democrats (since the Michigan Democratic primary is virtually meaningless due to DNC rules).
It should be a three-way race between Romney, McCain and Huckabee there, depending on where they can get their votes out from. Huckabee seems strongest in the rural southwestern and northern areas, McCain seems strongest in the southeast and Romney spread across the state, although the state isn't exactly conservative on economic issues and is split on social issues (I kinda think of it as being similar to southwestern Ontario in its views - with rural-urban splits
Michigan is somewhat like Ontario in terms of urban/rural splits as well as you do have a number of college towns which tend to be a lot more liberal than surrounding areas. Although the Western part of Michigan is far more Conservative than anywhere in Ontario. Interestingly enough, it was settled heavily by the Dutch much like Southwestern Ontario, but the population here tends to be a lot more religious.
Although the religious right has its pockets, I cannot see Huckabee winning Michigan. I think it is between McCain and Romney here.
As for Nevada, this should be an interesting one to watch as like Iowa and New Hampshire another swing state. In addition, it is the first state with a large Latino population and this group has generally leaned towards the Democrats but tends to be more socially conservative than much of the Democrats so they are a crucial group to appeal to, especially when one gets to larger states like Texas and California.
Romney won Michigan last night, reviving his campaign. (Clinton won the meaningless Democratic primary as they were stripped of all their delegates due to violating DNC rules).
Now on to South Carolina and Nevada (SC first for the Republicans, NV first for the Democrats). South Carolina is VERY socially conservative and has a large Black population, while Nevada is quite libertarian and has a large Hispanic population.
I'd say Huckabee and Obama in South Carolina, and Clinton and McCain in Nevada.
For the Republicans, I would say it is still a four way race, although if Guiliani doesn't win Florida, I would say he is finished since three dismal showings sure don't look good. Clinton's win in Michigan is largely meaningless, Nevada is the next important one.
In the case of South Carolina, I think the Evangelical vote will matter more for the Republicans than Democrats and likewise the large Black population will affect more the Democrats than the Republicans.
In the case of Nevada, the libertarian streak should affect the Republicans most, while the large Hispanic vote will impact both parties as the Hispanic community tends to split more evenly between the two parties than the Black community which goes about 90% Democrat.
I would say Huckabee has a great chance in South Carolina due to his Evangelism, while McCain would be more suited for Nevada since he is more libertarian as well as his stance on immigration, while unpopular amongst most Republicans, should help him amongst Hispanic voters. I would say Nevada is still a toss up between Obama and Clinton
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