Upcoming by-elections
This coming September, we will likely face three by-elections unless off course the government falls before then. Below is a summary of whats at stake and what I expect.
Westmount-Ville Marie
This is a safe Liberal riding so anything other than a Liberal win would be a huge disappointment, in fact even a near miss like we had in Vancouver-Quadra would be as well. That being said I think the Liberals will win for the simple reason the demographics of the riding are stacked against all the other parties. It has a large Anglophone population so that pretty much rules out a Bloc Quebecois win, includes Westmount, which is a fairly affluent community so, despite the NDP's by-election win neighbouring Outremont, I doubt it will spill over into Westmount-Ville Marie as the NDP rarely does well amongst the wealthy. Likewise being in Montreal proper and considering how poorly the Tories did in Montreal, a Tory win is pretty much out of the picture as well.
Saint Lambert
This could be an interesting one and in fact effect whether we have a fall election or not. On the one hand a Liberal win would show momentum and make them more keen on going to the polls, but a Bloc loss would probably make them less keen so the government might survive after all, but have the Bloc instead of the Liberals propping them up. This was a Liberal riding prior to adscam so I could really see it going either way. The Tories only got 19% in 2006, so a Tory win would be a huge surprise. The main thing here is whether the Tories go up or go down in terms of support, while the NDP is not a factor here.
Guelph
If the Tories do pick up any of the three, this is their best shot, but still despite being surrounded by fairly conservative communities, this is an urban community with a university in it so it is not a conservative town at all. Rather the Tories could pull off a win by a strong split between the NDP, Greens, and Liberals thus coming up the middle. Likewise an NDP win, although not likely, is possible too, while a Green win is pretty much out of the picture, but I could see them doing quite well in this riding considering it has a large university population which they tend to do well amongst. Although this riding did go Conservative in the past, lets remember prior to 2004 federally and 2007 provincially it was Guelph-Wellington instead of Guelph, thus it included a large chunk of rural area which is substantially more conservative than the city itself. Still, my bet would be on the Liberals holding this one, especially considering the Tories have done a good job of alienating voters in Ontario and giving them every reason not to vote for them. I would say this is an example of both Flaherty and Harper letting their ego get ahead of their political judgment.
Now the final question, is will we have a fall election or not. I won't make any predictions, other than it seems quite possible. I don't think the Liberals should bring down the government without having a reason for doing so, but at the same time they should not hesitate to vote against motions of confidence if they feel they are bad bills. The Liberals should vote based on principle, not on political calculations. The reality is despite what some Tories may say, Harper has not overly impressed Canadians and is vulnerable. In particular he seems to be pleasing those who already supported him, but done little to reach out to those skeptical of him in 2006. Ignoring his policies, I find his bully and confrontational style of governing unimpressive and hope after next election we can put an end to this style of government. Minority governments have been successful in many countries elsewhere and many of these have included parties with very different ideologies (i.e. Germany between the centre-right CDU-CSU and the centre-left SPD) so it is possible for parties of different ideologies to work together if they are willing to put the interest of the country ahead of their narrow partisan interests, but unfortunately that won't happen as long as Harper is in charge.
Two other issues are the deportation of the war resisters and the Tories cuts to arts funding. On the war resisters, I think the Iraq War was wrong and immoral, however, I am a bit worried about the precedent of letting anyone who refuses to fight in a non-UN sanctioned war automatically be accepted in Canada. Although there are few wars as big as Iraq, there are many smaller scale ones not sanctioned by the UN i.e. Russia invading Georgia just this past week, so we simply don't have the ability to take everyone who wishes to come here. Instead they should be able to apply under normal immigration channels and if they qualify, their desertion will not play a factor in their decision to be admitted. Likewise I would change it from UN sanctioned to wars Canada disapproves of as the Iraq War would still be immoral even had it received UN sanction and likewise Canada did participate in Kosovo which was not UN sanctioned. Besides, I believe if those war resisters stayed in the US and went to jail, this would show a lot of courage on their part and strengths in their views and would likely have a greater impact in preventing future wars like Iraq. This is what Mohammed Ali did. Likewise Martin Luther King Jr., Nelson Mandela, and Gandhi all went to prison for protesting against what they saw was unjust and all of them in the end succeeded in getting what they hoped to achieve. The above four mentioned are heros in the truest sense.
The other issues is the Tories funding cuts to the Arts. I am a strong believer in the free market and generally believe most things should sink or swim on their own. At the same token I do realize that the positive benefits from the arts can pay off in terms of increased tourism, more investment so therefore if done properly they could be a wise investment. Cultural sites such as the Louvre, Roman Coliseum, Parthenon, and Stonehedge all get government funding and in each of these cases, the economic spinoffs from increased tourism more than offsets whatever costs is involved. My real worry more is the Tories reasoning, as it has less to do with them being for the free market and more to do with them not wanting to fund people who have different views than themselves. Although many of the artist may be centre-left in their views, I would hardly say they are non-mainstream, in fact many are probably closer to the median Canadian voter than the Tories are. Finally I am deeply offended by their idea this would be popular in the West. I am originally from Vancouver which is in many ways even more liberal (philosophically) than Toronto. We are not all a bunch of rednecks and hard right wingers. Even most Albertans are centre-right rather than hard right. Witness how both moderate candidates, Ed Stelmach and Jim Dinning finished ahead of Ted Morton, standard bearer of the Hard right and ironically a close ideological soulmate of Harper in the Alberta PC leadership race. Instead of following the footsteps of the Republicans, maybe the Tories could look across the Atlantic at their British counterparts who under David Cameron have moved away from its more ideological past towards the centre and are also consistently polling above 40%, something the Tories here cannot do.
UPDATE:
Harper has also called a by-election in Don Valley West. Considering this is in Toronto, I suspect the Liberals will hold this, that being said this is almost Toronto's equivalent of Vancouver-Quadra, so if the Tories pull off a surprise win or come close to winning it, I suspect the Liberals will not be eager to go the polls. This did go Tory in 1988 federally and 1999 provincially so it has gone for centre-right parties in the past, but as seen in the 90s when the right was split the PCs got close to 30% while the Reform/Alliance struggled to crack the 10% mark, which suggests it has a large number of slight right of centre voters, but few hard right voters. If the Tories had a moderate leader like James Moore or Jim Prentice they might be able to win this, but if they had a more right wing leader like Jason Kenney or Stockwell Day they would be lucky to even get 20%, so as long as the Tories are clearly a right wing party they will continue to lose this to the Liberals, but if they ever move closer to the centre, this could become vulnerable. In addition unlike Vancouver-Quadra, the Greens and NDP are largely non-existent so even if the Tories got 35% like they did in Vancouver-Quadra (which ironically is only 2% more than what they got last federal election and 4% less than what John Tory got in the last provincial election) they still won't win this. They need around 45% to take this and their ceiling is around 40% here.
Westmount-Ville Marie
This is a safe Liberal riding so anything other than a Liberal win would be a huge disappointment, in fact even a near miss like we had in Vancouver-Quadra would be as well. That being said I think the Liberals will win for the simple reason the demographics of the riding are stacked against all the other parties. It has a large Anglophone population so that pretty much rules out a Bloc Quebecois win, includes Westmount, which is a fairly affluent community so, despite the NDP's by-election win neighbouring Outremont, I doubt it will spill over into Westmount-Ville Marie as the NDP rarely does well amongst the wealthy. Likewise being in Montreal proper and considering how poorly the Tories did in Montreal, a Tory win is pretty much out of the picture as well.
Saint Lambert
This could be an interesting one and in fact effect whether we have a fall election or not. On the one hand a Liberal win would show momentum and make them more keen on going to the polls, but a Bloc loss would probably make them less keen so the government might survive after all, but have the Bloc instead of the Liberals propping them up. This was a Liberal riding prior to adscam so I could really see it going either way. The Tories only got 19% in 2006, so a Tory win would be a huge surprise. The main thing here is whether the Tories go up or go down in terms of support, while the NDP is not a factor here.
Guelph
If the Tories do pick up any of the three, this is their best shot, but still despite being surrounded by fairly conservative communities, this is an urban community with a university in it so it is not a conservative town at all. Rather the Tories could pull off a win by a strong split between the NDP, Greens, and Liberals thus coming up the middle. Likewise an NDP win, although not likely, is possible too, while a Green win is pretty much out of the picture, but I could see them doing quite well in this riding considering it has a large university population which they tend to do well amongst. Although this riding did go Conservative in the past, lets remember prior to 2004 federally and 2007 provincially it was Guelph-Wellington instead of Guelph, thus it included a large chunk of rural area which is substantially more conservative than the city itself. Still, my bet would be on the Liberals holding this one, especially considering the Tories have done a good job of alienating voters in Ontario and giving them every reason not to vote for them. I would say this is an example of both Flaherty and Harper letting their ego get ahead of their political judgment.
Now the final question, is will we have a fall election or not. I won't make any predictions, other than it seems quite possible. I don't think the Liberals should bring down the government without having a reason for doing so, but at the same time they should not hesitate to vote against motions of confidence if they feel they are bad bills. The Liberals should vote based on principle, not on political calculations. The reality is despite what some Tories may say, Harper has not overly impressed Canadians and is vulnerable. In particular he seems to be pleasing those who already supported him, but done little to reach out to those skeptical of him in 2006. Ignoring his policies, I find his bully and confrontational style of governing unimpressive and hope after next election we can put an end to this style of government. Minority governments have been successful in many countries elsewhere and many of these have included parties with very different ideologies (i.e. Germany between the centre-right CDU-CSU and the centre-left SPD) so it is possible for parties of different ideologies to work together if they are willing to put the interest of the country ahead of their narrow partisan interests, but unfortunately that won't happen as long as Harper is in charge.
Two other issues are the deportation of the war resisters and the Tories cuts to arts funding. On the war resisters, I think the Iraq War was wrong and immoral, however, I am a bit worried about the precedent of letting anyone who refuses to fight in a non-UN sanctioned war automatically be accepted in Canada. Although there are few wars as big as Iraq, there are many smaller scale ones not sanctioned by the UN i.e. Russia invading Georgia just this past week, so we simply don't have the ability to take everyone who wishes to come here. Instead they should be able to apply under normal immigration channels and if they qualify, their desertion will not play a factor in their decision to be admitted. Likewise I would change it from UN sanctioned to wars Canada disapproves of as the Iraq War would still be immoral even had it received UN sanction and likewise Canada did participate in Kosovo which was not UN sanctioned. Besides, I believe if those war resisters stayed in the US and went to jail, this would show a lot of courage on their part and strengths in their views and would likely have a greater impact in preventing future wars like Iraq. This is what Mohammed Ali did. Likewise Martin Luther King Jr., Nelson Mandela, and Gandhi all went to prison for protesting against what they saw was unjust and all of them in the end succeeded in getting what they hoped to achieve. The above four mentioned are heros in the truest sense.
The other issues is the Tories funding cuts to the Arts. I am a strong believer in the free market and generally believe most things should sink or swim on their own. At the same token I do realize that the positive benefits from the arts can pay off in terms of increased tourism, more investment so therefore if done properly they could be a wise investment. Cultural sites such as the Louvre, Roman Coliseum, Parthenon, and Stonehedge all get government funding and in each of these cases, the economic spinoffs from increased tourism more than offsets whatever costs is involved. My real worry more is the Tories reasoning, as it has less to do with them being for the free market and more to do with them not wanting to fund people who have different views than themselves. Although many of the artist may be centre-left in their views, I would hardly say they are non-mainstream, in fact many are probably closer to the median Canadian voter than the Tories are. Finally I am deeply offended by their idea this would be popular in the West. I am originally from Vancouver which is in many ways even more liberal (philosophically) than Toronto. We are not all a bunch of rednecks and hard right wingers. Even most Albertans are centre-right rather than hard right. Witness how both moderate candidates, Ed Stelmach and Jim Dinning finished ahead of Ted Morton, standard bearer of the Hard right and ironically a close ideological soulmate of Harper in the Alberta PC leadership race. Instead of following the footsteps of the Republicans, maybe the Tories could look across the Atlantic at their British counterparts who under David Cameron have moved away from its more ideological past towards the centre and are also consistently polling above 40%, something the Tories here cannot do.
UPDATE:
Harper has also called a by-election in Don Valley West. Considering this is in Toronto, I suspect the Liberals will hold this, that being said this is almost Toronto's equivalent of Vancouver-Quadra, so if the Tories pull off a surprise win or come close to winning it, I suspect the Liberals will not be eager to go the polls. This did go Tory in 1988 federally and 1999 provincially so it has gone for centre-right parties in the past, but as seen in the 90s when the right was split the PCs got close to 30% while the Reform/Alliance struggled to crack the 10% mark, which suggests it has a large number of slight right of centre voters, but few hard right voters. If the Tories had a moderate leader like James Moore or Jim Prentice they might be able to win this, but if they had a more right wing leader like Jason Kenney or Stockwell Day they would be lucky to even get 20%, so as long as the Tories are clearly a right wing party they will continue to lose this to the Liberals, but if they ever move closer to the centre, this could become vulnerable. In addition unlike Vancouver-Quadra, the Greens and NDP are largely non-existent so even if the Tories got 35% like they did in Vancouver-Quadra (which ironically is only 2% more than what they got last federal election and 4% less than what John Tory got in the last provincial election) they still won't win this. They need around 45% to take this and their ceiling is around 40% here.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 5:25 PM
9 Comments:
Interesting analysis Miles I dont know how you can still back the liberals. I wholeheartedly agree that a vote should be based upon principle and not strategy so how do you explain 42 abstentions in the last session, Dion refusing to appear even in the commons for debate up until the end of June and then a month and a half later saying that he wants and will determine when there will be an election perhaps he forgets that he needs either the Bloc or the NDP to support him in taking down Harper which he should have done a long time ago!
PS Westmount is not completely affluent, there is a large section but there is also alot and I mean alot of poverty and homelessness in this riding as there is in most Canadian metropilitan ridings. Again what did the Libs and Dion do for this when they had 13 years of majority to make change and great policy without opposition???? Yours truly a very disappointed former Liberal hoping for better things.
Alex - I back the Liberals because I believe they have the best plan. Also I feel they are better than the alternatives and that would be the Conservatives as neither the NDP or Greens stand a chance at winning, never mind after seeing the NDP in government in BC, they would be even worse than the Conservatives were they ever god forbid to form government.
As for the abstentions, I think they were a mistake. We should have voted against the bad bills and if Harper wanted to avoid an election, he could then modify them. Considering how lousy his poll numbers were for much of the spring, I wonder if he really wanted one or was simply using this as a way to railroad through bills that he couldn't otherwise pass.
Westmount-Ville Marie is sort of like Toronto Centre here in Toronto which includes poor areas such as Regent park, but also more affluent areas like Rosedale. Due to the inclusion of Rosedale, this pretty much excludes an NDP win despite the fact both neighbouring ridings (Trinity-Spadina and Toronto-Danforth) went NDP. As for deaing with poverty and homelessness, I agree more can be done. In the 90s we had to tackle the deficit so there was little extra money available, but that is not the case anymore. Likewise the problem with many government programs is a huge portion of the funding is spent on bureaucracy rather than the real problem. Homelessness and poverty is best dealt with the community it affects most so I think the new deal for the cities would have helped as while the funding would come from Ottawa, the issue would be managed at a local level. This needs more federal funding, but the actual managing of the programs should be at the community level.
I do agree for the most part on your comments here.
Guelph: Should go Liberal, although not be a lot if the NDP do well. If the old boundaries were in place, this would probably swing Conservative, but redistribution ate up all the rural parts. (It will be interesting to see what happens in 2014 at the next redistribution, will Guelph be split in half or will it be a core riding with the periphery going to a rural-based riding?)
Don Valley West: I think you are quite optimistic for the Conservatives there. I smell another Liberal landslide. This is the type of riding today's Liberal party loves - urban, affluent, VERY socially liberal meaning their core supporters. Even a Red Tory leader wouldn't be able to win there these days (look at John Tory's performance) and the price elsewhere (in rural ridings which are more conservative than Harper is on social issues in most cases) would be huge.
Saint-Lambert: Agreed, safe Bloc. I think the Conservatives will be a distant second.
Westmount-Ville-Marie: I think this is ripe for an NDP upset actually. Nowhere else in Canada is there greater hatred of the government than urban Montreal, and they are not going to be too happy voting for a party that supported the Afghan mission (which voters here oppose more so than anywhere else) and Conservative budgets keeping them in power.
Should go Liberal, although not be a lot if the NDP do well. If the old boundaries were in place, this would probably swing Conservative, but redistribution ate up all the rural parts. (It will be interesting to see what happens in 2014 at the next redistribution, will Guelph be split in half or will it be a core riding with the periphery going to a rural-based riding?)
I would generally agree with this. I would add though the better the voter turnout, the better the chances of a Liberal win as it seems Tory voters are more motivated to come to the polls, but there are fewer of them. As for the two scenarios, I am torn on which would be better as the first would create two swing ridings while the second would create a safe Tory and a safe Liberal riding
think you are quite optimistic for the Conservatives there. I smell another Liberal landslide. This is the type of riding today's Liberal party loves - urban, affluent, VERY socially liberal meaning their core supporters. Even a Red Tory leader wouldn't be able to win there these days (look at John Tory's performance) and the price elsewhere (in rural ridings which are more conservative than Harper is on social issues in most cases) would be huge.
I would be surprised if it is anything other than a solid Liberal win. With the NDP and Greens being virtually non-existent, the Tories could get 40% and still lose this. Though this riding does have a very strong resemblance to Vancouver-Quadra. I do though believe a Red Tory leader could win here as John Tory lost, but his religious school funding issue tanked his campaign. This did go for Mike Harris in 1999 who was as right wing as Harper minus the social conservatism, so even though the riding has changed, I still think a Red Tory could win here. Off course as long as Harper is leader that is a non-issue. This is really the type of riding the Old PCs could win in, but not the Reform/Alliance. I believe after all Jane Pitfield beat Miller in the two wards in this riding in the last municipal election. Ironically though, the Tories did get over 50% last election in one sections of the riding (I am guessing it was probably in and around all the mansions in Millionaire's row) while they got only 15% in another section, probably the area near Yonge Street which has a lot of apartments and rentals.
Agreed, safe Bloc. I think the Conservatives will be a distant second.
This went Liberal in 1997 and 2000 and it does have a large Allophone community so it could go Liberal again. The Liberals came in second in 2006 ahead of the Tories. I am always reluctant to make predictions in Quebec, since their voting patterns seem far more erratic than elsewhere. Asides from the Bloc, it seems both the Liberals and Tories have a small base in the province but a large number of potential swing voters, whereas in most other provinces (asides for Alberta in the case of the Liberals) they have a sizeable base, but also a large chunk of the population would never vote for them.
I think this is ripe for an NDP upset actually. Nowhere else in Canada is there greater hatred of the government than urban Montreal, and they are not going to be too happy voting for a party that supported the Afghan mission (which voters here oppose more so than anywhere else) and Conservative budgets keeping them in power.
This might hurt the Liberals, the problem is unlike Outremont, this riding includes the affluent Westmount, which the NDP will get clobbered in. They might win the Ville Marie section, but this will easily be offset by Westmount. In many ways the Westmount section is a lot like Mount Royal in its voting patterns. Although the Tories are pretty widely despised in urban Montreal, not all areas are exactly open to voting for a social democratic party.
What happened to Brenda Chamberlain anyway?
Westmount is actually more mixed than you imply. Only Upper Westmount, above the Boulevard, is really like Rosedale. Lower and Middle Westmount are somewhat like the Annex in Toronto. Still, demos do favor the Libs and even a narrow victory would be very problematic for Dion.
Don Valley West certainly leans Liberal, but I can see them going for a red Tory of some sort. The Greens will be less of a factor than Quadra though (nothing like UBC and Kits) - so even if the Tories poll higher than in Quadra (say 38%) they'd still lose. John Tory did lose in DVW, but he can reasonably close and could very well have won if it weren't for the religious schools policy.
Guelph is really the ultimate test for the Tories. If they win - it shows he can appeal to "middle Ontario." If they actually lose ground - it shows that the Tories have a very limited base.
Westmount is actually more mixed than you imply. Only Upper Westmount, above the Boulevard, is really like Rosedale. Lower and Middle Westmount are somewhat like the Annex in Toronto. Still, demos do favor the Libs and even a narrow victory would be very problematic for Dion
I would say the same could be said about Toronto Centre as Rosedale is only a similiar portion, still I think the Liberals have a very strong edge and I highly doubt they will lose this.
Don Valley West certainly leans Liberal, but I can see them going for a red Tory of some sort. The Greens will be less of a factor than Quadra though (nothing like UBC and Kits) - so even if the Tories poll higher than in Quadra (say 38%) they'd still lose. John Tory did lose in DVW, but he can reasonably close and could very well have won if it weren't for the religious schools policy
Generally agree here. In fact John Tory got 39% and still lost here. That being said I cannot see this going Tory as long as Harper remains leader.
Guelph is really the ultimate test for the Tories. If they win - it shows he can appeal to "middle Ontario." If they actually lose ground - it shows that the Tories have a very limited base
It is a university town so less conservative than say a similiar sized one such as Barrie, but at the same time the NDP and Greens are strong enough to split the vote heavily so if the Tories see their share of the popular vote go down this will be a sign of trouble in Ontario.
That being said it is looking more and more likely like Harper will pull the plug before the by-elections despite the law on fixed election dates. I can't help but think he fears if he doesn't go now the party will lose outright. After all, that is the only explanation I can see for his impatience as this is totally a manufactured crisis.
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