By-Election results
Now that the final results are in, here is my take on the by-election and I will try to give a non-partisan approach that looks at the results as fairly as possible. It is important to note voter turnouts were very low in all of these ridings so one should be careful in reading too much into any of these. Since the voter turnout will almost certainly be better in the next general election, the results may be very different.
Conservatives: A good showing, but not great. They won Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River and nearly won in the liberal stonghold of Vancouver-Quadra, however they failed to make headway in the two Toronto ridings. So although they are looking strong in Western Canada, they already hold the majority of seats here so they need to make gains in the East if they want to get a majority. In fact most polls showing the Tories up from the Manitoba/Ontario border Westward while down East of the Ontario/Manitoba border, however there are twice as many seats east of the Ontario/Manitoba border as to the West. That being said while polls place the Tories in the low 30s in Ontario right now, they were flirting with the 40% not too long ago, so if they spent less times trying to pick fights with the provincial government and bashing the province, they could also do better in Ontario.
Liberals: Not a great night, but not terrible either. They won both Toronto ridings by solid margins and in fact so their share of the popular vote go up in both, but their loss by a large margin in DMCR and near loss in liberal stronghold of Vancouver-Quadra, shows they Liberals are in trouble in Western Canada. And while they can win a minority without winning many seats in Western Canada, they will need to do much better if they ever want to win a majority government. Since they can no longer pull off sweeps of Quebec (as Trudeau did) or Ontario (as Chretien did) they will need to do better here if they want to do better than a weak minority government.
NDP: They weren't expected to win any ridings, but their drop in the share of the popular vote is not a good thing for them.
Green Party: No wins as expected, but the fact they got into double digits in Toronto Centre and Vancouver-Quadra is definitely a good sign for them in terms of at least making their issues ones the mainstream parties have to contend with.
Toronto Centre
Bob Rae as expected won, but also increased his share of the popular vote by 7% so definitely a good sign with the Liberals. In fact if the trend in Toronto Centre in terms of vote increases and decreases played out across Ontario, the results would be very similiar to 2004 meaning a Liberal minority and that any Conservative gains in the West would be offset by Liberal gains in Ontario. Although I would never want to see Bob Rae become PM after his disastrous rule as premier, he is a very effective debater and knows where Harper's weaknesses are and can take hm on. Dion may be a good future PM, but not a great opposition leader, whereas Bob Rae is a great opposition leader, but not the best PM for the future so he will be strong compliment to Dion. The Conservatives fell to fourth and dropped to 12%. I hope this sends a strong message to them that bashing Toronto running a so-con in a riding with a large gay population and turfing a candidate whose views were moderate and represented the riding will get you a well-deserved slap on the wrist. The Tories never stood a chance at winning this riding, but if they keep acting the same as they are now, they may be in danger of not getting their deposit re-imbursed (one must get at least 10% to get their deposit re-imbursed). The NDP has continued their slide in this riding and this cannot be good news in neighbouring ridings which either went NDP or could go NDP. While the inclusion of Rosedale puts this out of reach for the NDP, this also includes areas such as Regent Park and Cabbagetown, which should be NDP friendly turf.
Willowdale
Martha Hall Findlay easily won this riding and increased her share of the popular vote by 4%. She is definitely a strong candidate and I am glad to have her in the House of Commons. The Tories did lose badly here so one could make he argument there are not gaining in the GTA where they need to, but they still did increase their share of the popular vote, even if only by 1% so one can argue that are making small gains in the GTA. Some Tories might point out that while they are declining the core of Toronto, they are holding steady in the suburban parts of the 416 so using this trend they are probably going up in the 905 belt where they do have the potential to win seats. I don't fully buy this argument, however I do agree that if the Tories stopped picking fights with the Ontario premier and were seen as more Ontario friendly, they would be in a good position to gain seats in Ontario and the GTA rather than lose them.
Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River
A strong win by the Conservatives and this cannot be played down by the Liberals. Had the Liberals only narrowly lost this, that might be one thing since they only won by 67 votes, but a loss of this size cannot be ignored. While part of it was the appointment of Joan Beatty, I also think the Liberals have failed to capitalize on potential Tory weaknesses in Saskatchewan. The changes in equalization and ending the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly were all suppose to hurt the Tories in Saskatchewan, but this appears not to be the case. I can see two possible reasons for this and I hope whichever it is, the Liberals figure it out and act accordingly. The first is those issues could harm the Tories in Saskatchewan, but they are buried in the backs of newspapers, not front page, so the Liberals have to find a way to make them front page news. Another possibility is those really aren't issues that harm th Tories. Saskatchewan is a borderline have province so the question of equalization may be less of an issue than in the past since they don't pay much into it, but neither do they get much out either. In the case of the Canadian Wheat Board (please note I support a dual marketing system, even though I understand and respect the Liberal position), I wonder if Harper's position is as unpopular as some say. Most MPs in the Wheat Board district are in favour of the changes while most outside it are not, so I wonder if this is a case of MPs elsewhere assuming the views of farmers in their area are held across Canada (supply management is very popular amongst farmers in Eastern Canada and is somewhat similiar to the Wheat Board in terms of both involve government intervention as opposed to the free market), rather that perhaps realizing maybe Western Canadians are more pro-free enterprise than Eastern Canadians and take a different view on government's role in agriculture. I am not saying this is the case, I am simply raising the possibility. I have lived in both Western Canada and Eastern Canada and I have found people in the East tend to be somewhat more skeptical of the free market than in the West.
Vancouver-Quadra
The Liberals won this, but their margin of victory is nothing to celebrate. If this trend were to play out across British Columbia, we could see the Conservatives dominating BC the same way the Alliance did in 2000. While the Tories are dropping in Ontario, they are going up in British Columbia (for whatever reason) and if the Liberals don't do something about it, it could cost them. Having lived in BC and still talking to regularly to family and friends out there, I have noticed that last election, people's attitude towards Harper was much the same as in Ontario, but since then people have generally been impressed with the job he is doing in BC, while generally unhappy here in Ontario. In addition, Dion is considered an acceptable alternative in Ontario, but not reasonating in BC. The problem in the West is the Liberals have traditionally been seen as favouring Central and Eastern Canada so they have to work hard to win in the West. Paul Martin was able to make gains there by spending lots of time out there, producing a made in BC platform and speaking directly on local issues. Had it not been for adscam, I suspect the Liberals would have made their much wanted breakthrough in BC. Unfortunately the gains by Martin may be squandered. Also fair or not fair, most people in Ontario accept Dion's less than perfect English since being so close to Quebec, we understand Canada is a nation of two languages and considering Dion's English is better than 90% of Ontarioan's French, most accept his less than perfect English. In British Columbia, they are far removed from any French speaking area so most British Columbians tend to think of Canada more as an English speaking country since very little French is heard and you have to drive 12 hours straight for four days before you even get into an area with a large French speaking population. Therefore, the expectation is that any leader wishing to be PM should speak English fluently without an accent. This means Dion needs to improve his English if he wants to do well in the West. I have no problem with his English as his English is far better than my French, but I plan to vote Liberal anyways, so what matters is what the typical swing voter as opposed to committed voter thinks.
So, each party has their work cut out. The Tories were doing well in Ontario until they started bashing it, so they need to find a way to make themselves more appealing in Ontario. While they stand no chance at winning Willowdale and Toronto Centre, they could have at least closed the gap, which they didn't. The Liberals on the other hand need to spend at lot more time in Western Canada and focus specifically on issues important to Western Canadians since if they don't make changes, they could get wiped out in Western Canada and this could not only limit their ability to go beyond a weak minority government, it could also cause Western Alientation to flare up again. They need to keep on doing what they are doing in Ontario to ensure the Liberal momentum continues while improve things in the West, while the Tories need to keep their momentum in the West and regain their lost support in Ontario if they wish to win (off course I hope they don't, but I would rather see them lose support equally in all regions than gain in some and lose in others).
Conservatives: A good showing, but not great. They won Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River and nearly won in the liberal stonghold of Vancouver-Quadra, however they failed to make headway in the two Toronto ridings. So although they are looking strong in Western Canada, they already hold the majority of seats here so they need to make gains in the East if they want to get a majority. In fact most polls showing the Tories up from the Manitoba/Ontario border Westward while down East of the Ontario/Manitoba border, however there are twice as many seats east of the Ontario/Manitoba border as to the West. That being said while polls place the Tories in the low 30s in Ontario right now, they were flirting with the 40% not too long ago, so if they spent less times trying to pick fights with the provincial government and bashing the province, they could also do better in Ontario.
Liberals: Not a great night, but not terrible either. They won both Toronto ridings by solid margins and in fact so their share of the popular vote go up in both, but their loss by a large margin in DMCR and near loss in liberal stronghold of Vancouver-Quadra, shows they Liberals are in trouble in Western Canada. And while they can win a minority without winning many seats in Western Canada, they will need to do much better if they ever want to win a majority government. Since they can no longer pull off sweeps of Quebec (as Trudeau did) or Ontario (as Chretien did) they will need to do better here if they want to do better than a weak minority government.
NDP: They weren't expected to win any ridings, but their drop in the share of the popular vote is not a good thing for them.
Green Party: No wins as expected, but the fact they got into double digits in Toronto Centre and Vancouver-Quadra is definitely a good sign for them in terms of at least making their issues ones the mainstream parties have to contend with.
Toronto Centre
Bob Rae as expected won, but also increased his share of the popular vote by 7% so definitely a good sign with the Liberals. In fact if the trend in Toronto Centre in terms of vote increases and decreases played out across Ontario, the results would be very similiar to 2004 meaning a Liberal minority and that any Conservative gains in the West would be offset by Liberal gains in Ontario. Although I would never want to see Bob Rae become PM after his disastrous rule as premier, he is a very effective debater and knows where Harper's weaknesses are and can take hm on. Dion may be a good future PM, but not a great opposition leader, whereas Bob Rae is a great opposition leader, but not the best PM for the future so he will be strong compliment to Dion. The Conservatives fell to fourth and dropped to 12%. I hope this sends a strong message to them that bashing Toronto running a so-con in a riding with a large gay population and turfing a candidate whose views were moderate and represented the riding will get you a well-deserved slap on the wrist. The Tories never stood a chance at winning this riding, but if they keep acting the same as they are now, they may be in danger of not getting their deposit re-imbursed (one must get at least 10% to get their deposit re-imbursed). The NDP has continued their slide in this riding and this cannot be good news in neighbouring ridings which either went NDP or could go NDP. While the inclusion of Rosedale puts this out of reach for the NDP, this also includes areas such as Regent Park and Cabbagetown, which should be NDP friendly turf.
Willowdale
Martha Hall Findlay easily won this riding and increased her share of the popular vote by 4%. She is definitely a strong candidate and I am glad to have her in the House of Commons. The Tories did lose badly here so one could make he argument there are not gaining in the GTA where they need to, but they still did increase their share of the popular vote, even if only by 1% so one can argue that are making small gains in the GTA. Some Tories might point out that while they are declining the core of Toronto, they are holding steady in the suburban parts of the 416 so using this trend they are probably going up in the 905 belt where they do have the potential to win seats. I don't fully buy this argument, however I do agree that if the Tories stopped picking fights with the Ontario premier and were seen as more Ontario friendly, they would be in a good position to gain seats in Ontario and the GTA rather than lose them.
Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River
A strong win by the Conservatives and this cannot be played down by the Liberals. Had the Liberals only narrowly lost this, that might be one thing since they only won by 67 votes, but a loss of this size cannot be ignored. While part of it was the appointment of Joan Beatty, I also think the Liberals have failed to capitalize on potential Tory weaknesses in Saskatchewan. The changes in equalization and ending the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly were all suppose to hurt the Tories in Saskatchewan, but this appears not to be the case. I can see two possible reasons for this and I hope whichever it is, the Liberals figure it out and act accordingly. The first is those issues could harm the Tories in Saskatchewan, but they are buried in the backs of newspapers, not front page, so the Liberals have to find a way to make them front page news. Another possibility is those really aren't issues that harm th Tories. Saskatchewan is a borderline have province so the question of equalization may be less of an issue than in the past since they don't pay much into it, but neither do they get much out either. In the case of the Canadian Wheat Board (please note I support a dual marketing system, even though I understand and respect the Liberal position), I wonder if Harper's position is as unpopular as some say. Most MPs in the Wheat Board district are in favour of the changes while most outside it are not, so I wonder if this is a case of MPs elsewhere assuming the views of farmers in their area are held across Canada (supply management is very popular amongst farmers in Eastern Canada and is somewhat similiar to the Wheat Board in terms of both involve government intervention as opposed to the free market), rather that perhaps realizing maybe Western Canadians are more pro-free enterprise than Eastern Canadians and take a different view on government's role in agriculture. I am not saying this is the case, I am simply raising the possibility. I have lived in both Western Canada and Eastern Canada and I have found people in the East tend to be somewhat more skeptical of the free market than in the West.
Vancouver-Quadra
The Liberals won this, but their margin of victory is nothing to celebrate. If this trend were to play out across British Columbia, we could see the Conservatives dominating BC the same way the Alliance did in 2000. While the Tories are dropping in Ontario, they are going up in British Columbia (for whatever reason) and if the Liberals don't do something about it, it could cost them. Having lived in BC and still talking to regularly to family and friends out there, I have noticed that last election, people's attitude towards Harper was much the same as in Ontario, but since then people have generally been impressed with the job he is doing in BC, while generally unhappy here in Ontario. In addition, Dion is considered an acceptable alternative in Ontario, but not reasonating in BC. The problem in the West is the Liberals have traditionally been seen as favouring Central and Eastern Canada so they have to work hard to win in the West. Paul Martin was able to make gains there by spending lots of time out there, producing a made in BC platform and speaking directly on local issues. Had it not been for adscam, I suspect the Liberals would have made their much wanted breakthrough in BC. Unfortunately the gains by Martin may be squandered. Also fair or not fair, most people in Ontario accept Dion's less than perfect English since being so close to Quebec, we understand Canada is a nation of two languages and considering Dion's English is better than 90% of Ontarioan's French, most accept his less than perfect English. In British Columbia, they are far removed from any French speaking area so most British Columbians tend to think of Canada more as an English speaking country since very little French is heard and you have to drive 12 hours straight for four days before you even get into an area with a large French speaking population. Therefore, the expectation is that any leader wishing to be PM should speak English fluently without an accent. This means Dion needs to improve his English if he wants to do well in the West. I have no problem with his English as his English is far better than my French, but I plan to vote Liberal anyways, so what matters is what the typical swing voter as opposed to committed voter thinks.
So, each party has their work cut out. The Tories were doing well in Ontario until they started bashing it, so they need to find a way to make themselves more appealing in Ontario. While they stand no chance at winning Willowdale and Toronto Centre, they could have at least closed the gap, which they didn't. The Liberals on the other hand need to spend at lot more time in Western Canada and focus specifically on issues important to Western Canadians since if they don't make changes, they could get wiped out in Western Canada and this could not only limit their ability to go beyond a weak minority government, it could also cause Western Alientation to flare up again. They need to keep on doing what they are doing in Ontario to ensure the Liberal momentum continues while improve things in the West, while the Tories need to keep their momentum in the West and regain their lost support in Ontario if they wish to win (off course I hope they don't, but I would rather see them lose support equally in all regions than gain in some and lose in others).
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 6:15 PM
7 Comments:
What do you think of the chances of the Green Party winning a seat in the next Federal general election?
Vancouver Quadra, the Greens took a lot of votes from the Liberals, I heard, is what happened.
One comment about your analysis: why are you judging all of Ontario based on the results in the two Toronto ridings? Last poll had the Conservatives and Liberals nearly tied in the province, and a perfect tie would likely mean more seats for the Conservatives due to the fact the Liberals are heavily concentrated in the Toronto area.
Opinionator 777 - The Green party likely won't any seats, but they could play spoiler in several.
Anonymous - That is partially the reason, although 35% for the Conservatives in Vancouver-Quadra is rather on the high side as this more typical of what they get in suburban rather than urban ridings.
Anonymous - You have a valid point, however, most of the recent polls show the Liberals with a pretty healthy lead in Ontario and even those that don't the consistent trend is the Tories have lost support. A few weeks ago before Flaherty started picking a fight with Ontario government and telling people Ontario is the last place they wanted to invest, that was true. So while it is true the results in Toronto, may not necessarily reflect the rest of Ontario, they may as well. In addition much of the population in the 905 belt works in Toronto so the trends there are usually similar to the 416 except the Tories do better the farther one gets from the city. Since the Tories have the majority of seats in Ontario outside the GTA, they really do need to gain in the GTA if they want a majority. Maybe not the 416, but if they aren't increasing their vote share in that area, what makes you think they will win more seats in the 905 belt. Had they increased their share of the popular vote, that would be a different story.
I believe your analysis is accurate with 2 exceptions:
1. I have to agree with Anonymous No. 2, and question your view that results in Toronto reflect possible results in the rest of Ontario. As you are aware, Conservative ridings both federally and provincially are outside the GTA, and Liberal ridings are concentrated around the GTA. Thus, making a judgment of Conservative/Liberal losses/gains in the rest of Ontario based on Toronto ridings is questionable.
2. The effort/scheming of the Conservatives is not discussed or discounted in your analysis. The Conservatives pick and choose their fights for strategic reasons. For example, they made limited effort in both Toronto Centre, and the word I am hearing, in Vancouver Quadra. I believe they did that because they hoped that the Liberals would be beated by the NDP (like in Outremont, where out of nowhere a safe Liberal seat disappeared).
As an aside: Liberal strategy, or Dion strategy, of appointing candidates has twice been proven stupid (while obviously being viewed as undemocratic).
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hammertimegp, interesting one, but I have to say I disagree strongly. Socialism, while it may sound good on paper, does not work in fact. In addition, while I share you frustration for the Liberals propping up the Tories, there are differences as the Liberals are a centrist party while the Tories are a right wing one and the NDP are a left wing one.
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