Why we need an election soon
Most of those wanting an election soon, want one to throw the Liberals out of office, however I want one for very different reasons. For a government to be effective, it must be stable. Any government that is under the constant threat of an election cannot govern properly. By having an election sooner rather than later we can return to a stable government that can actually get something done rather than constantly be worrying about losing the confidence of the house. Some of you may say that the next election will result in another minority government so we will face the same problems again. I would disagree for a couple of reasons. If the Conservatives don't win the upcoming election, Stephen Harper will have to resign as leader. Until they have a new leader in place and the leader has had enough time to become known by the general public, I don't think they are going to want to bring down the government. If the NDP loses seats, they will be of less relevance, while if they gain seats, they will have more leverage, so the Liberals will be more likely to give them what they want. I understand there are some important pieces of legislation on the order paper such as C-55 and C-66, but there is no reason those pieces of legislation cannot be passed this week. The aboriginal First Ministers summit could still go ahead if an election was called, although I agree it would be best to wait until after the summit, but that is only a couple of weeks away. Finally there is the Christmas Holidays, but this can be averted by Paul Martin asking the Governor General to extend the election period. The only rule says the election must be held on a Monday and must be at least 36 days. My advice to the opposition is to bring the government down in early December. To Paul Martin, I would ask the Governor General to extend the election to early February. I would offer to make a deal with the opposition not to do any campaigning during the holidays, but instead to begin campaigning on January 2nd for a February election. The sooner we can get the election over, the sooner the government can get back to governing. Also this will mean the Conservatives will get rid of Stephen Harper as leader, which I have been advocating since the last election; hopefully they will replace with a real leader who is moderate and sensitive to the needs of Canadians.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 9:17 PM
7 Comments:
Hey Miles,
I agree with most of what you're saying, but just one thing:
What if Harper wins?
Remember that the Libs almost always drop 7 or so pints post writ drop. Meaning that if the campaign begins with the polls where they are now, and the usual pattern happens, Harper will be PM-elect after E-day.
When he was down in the low 20's over the simmer I figured he had no chance, but with the numbers where they are now its a whole new ball game.
-Brandon
It won't happen Brandon. Too many people are frightened of the prospect of Stephen Harper becoming prime-minister. As Warren Kinsella once said back in 2001, if you haven't defined yourself by the end of the leadership convention, you can count on your good friends at the Liberals doing it, which is the biggest mistake Harper made. I agree he will pull in the lead once the writ is dropped, but like last time, people will return to the Liberals the moment it looks like Harper might become PM.
Just watch it unfold. Kinsella himself is saying Mr. Dithers is going down.
-Brandon
I should note that in 2004, I was the only one in our club to predict a Liberal minority even when the Tories were leading in the polls and I was right. Most people I know were convinced Bush would lose the 2004 election, but I told them he would win and I was right. I predicted the BC Liberals would be re-elected with a reduced majority, even when they were trailing in the polls and I was right. Of those three elections, you are 1 for 3 on predicting the correct winner, while I am 3 for 3. Harper cannot get above 30% and no matter how one spins it, too many people are frightened of Stephen Harper. His perception of being Pro-American and a social conservative is one most Canadians hold and is a perspective most Canadians don't want to see in government. Stephen Harper has never been popular in Atlantic Canada, so no change there. The Liberals will lose seats in Quebec, but to the Bloc Quebecois, not the Tories. The Tories are stuck around 30% in Ontario so depending on whether the centre-left vote goes NDP or Liberal they could gain up to 10 seats or lose up to 10 seats. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, all they seats they failed to win, they didn't even come close so they won't gain any seats there and considering the NDP has traditionally been strong in Saskatchewan, they might even lose a few, but no more than five. There are only two seats left to pick up in Alberta, which they will pick up Kilgour's seat and maybe Anne McLellan's. In British Columbia, they are stuck in the high 20s with the NDP seeming to benefit more from Liberal anger, not the Tories. Depending on how the Liberals split the vote, they could lose between 5-10 seats in BC, but they certainly won't keep all their seats in BC. I don't think they will re-bound this time in BC as British Columbians are generally pretty liberal (ideologically, not partisan wise) so their views are generally offside with most British Columbians. The Reform/Alliance captured much of the protest vote as opposed to genuine support. Likewise in the past three elections, the Liberals dropped the Writ, while this time, it will be the opposition who will pull the plug so if anything, people might punish the opposition for triggering an unwanted election.
Brandon - You should read my post further down the page that says why the Liberals will win the election. I explain quite clearly the reasons for it.
I know Miles, you're a smart guy.
I concede to your prognosticating ability.
Even Kerry thought he was winning when I made my US prediction (right in the middle of E-day), but yes your record is superior to mine.
You might find this link of interesting though:
http://erg.environics.net/news/default.asp?aID=593
The bottom line is, put a muzzle on Randy White and Ralph Klein and Harper would have won last time.
Barring the same happening again, he could win this time too.
-Brandon
I think you are right Stephen Harper would have won last time had Ralph Klein, Randy White, and I should also add Cheryl Gallant and Scott Reid not made stupid statements. However, Stephen Harper wasn't as well known as he is today and since then people have become increasingly uncomfortable with him. Even if he runs a good campaign he still won't win. If he runs a good campaign he might pick up a few seats, but has people mouthing off stupid statements like last time around, he will lose up to 20 seats. I don't think Ralph Klein talking about violating the Canada Health Act will be as harmful as last time in light of the Supreme Court ruling and the fact Quebec is planning to make similar reforms to what he advocated last time around. Also, the Quebec wing of the Liberals passed a resolution this past weekend supporting allowing individuals to buy private health insurance for medically necessary services, so while not yet official Liberal policy, you can be sure Jack Layton will repeatedly point out that only the NDP can be trusted to stop privatization in Health Care.
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