Campbell has massive lead in two polls

Recently two polls have come out showing the BC Liberals have a lead of 16% and 17% respectively, suggesting the benefits of their policies are beginning to pay off. At first, I thought the Mustel poll might have been a rogue poll, but with the Ipsos-Reid Poll showing similiar results, I suspect it is a clear trend. I believe much of this has to do with the fact Campbell's policies appear more centrist than in his first term, but also the benefits of the strong economy due to his leadership is beginning to pay off. Rather than making policies on the fly based on public opinion at the moment, his policies were based on the long-term goal of turning BC around from the mess the NDP left behind and making it once again the leader in Canada in economic growth and job creation. When you have a strong economy you can lower taxes and spend more on programs important to British Columbians. Also this is the first poll in quite some time where his approval rating exceeds his disapproval rating. While a lot can happen between now and the next three years, this is definitely encouraging. After all a mere two years ago, he was trailing by 7-8 points in the polls and had an approval rating barely over 30%. I have just recently renewed my membership in the BC Liberals and although my focus is now on the federal scene with the upcoming Liberal leadership race, I certainly plan to focus more on the provincial scene once the next federal election passes by and Stephen Harper is turfed from office.

Conservative Vs. Liberal test

Well it looks like I am more of a Liberal than Conservative. I should note this is an American test and their definition of Liberal is different than ours. Anyways here are my Results:

Your Political Profile:

Overall: 40% Conservative, 60% Liberal

Social Issues: 25% Conservative, 75% Liberal

Personal Responsibility: 25% Conservative, 75% Liberal

Fiscal Issues: 100% Conservative, 0% Liberal

Ethics: 0% Conservative, 100% Liberal

Defense and Crime: 50% Conservative, 50% Liberal

How Liberal Or Conservative Are You?

The fact some of my friends are coming out to 70% conservative on an American test is somewhat worrying. On defence and crime, one of the questions was on the Iraq war so I find it hard to believe any Canadian would still score 100%. It is one thing to have supported the Iraq war initially, which I regretfully did, but to still support it is absolutely insane. I should also note I am quite conservative on economic issues, so I don't see how one can get above 50% without being conservative on some social issues, which I am not.

Rodney Macdonald wins Nova Scotia Election

I would like to congratulate Rodney Macdonald on his successful re-election. Although it was a slightly weaker minority, 23 seats vs. 25 seats before, he increased his popular vote by 3% and got a greater share of the popular vote than the Nova Scotia PCs did in 1999. They also came in first on Cape Breton Island, which was a big surprise as that area traditionally goes Liberal. Although a federal Liberal, I am a former Progressive Conservative and since Rodney Macdonald is clearly a Tory rather than a Reformer in Tory drag like Harper, I would have supported him. Considering he got almost 10% of the popular vote more than Harper did in Nova Scotia, it appears other Nova Scotians feel the same way. I am also relieved the NDP didn't win. After seeing them wreck my own province in the 90s, I would hate to see them do the same thing to Nova Scotia. The good thing is they have been very cooperative in opposition and I am sure they can continue to make this upcoming session work.

This was certainly a bitterly disappointing election for the Liberals. They won fewer seats and even their leader couldn't win his own seat. There is no question that Francis Mackenzie will need to step down as leader. However, I don't think the Liberals are totally at fault. As pointed out on CBC, unlike in past elections, there was little to distinguish the three parties. The NDP were more centrist than in the past and their federal counterparts while Rodney Macdonald was also more centrist than John Hamm and especially Stephen Harper. This essentially squeezed the Liberals out. It will be interesting to see if Nova Scotia, becomes like British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and most European countries where you have a centre-right party vs. a centre-left party while no middle party.

For those federal Tories cheering at the results, I would not read too much into this. Many progressive Liberals went NDP while many Blue Liberals went PC, but I don't think they will necessarily automatically come over to their federal counterparts. I especially cannot see Harper winning either of the Cape Breton Island ridings next election. I suspect Macdonald's strong showing on Cape Breton Island had more to do with the fact he came from there since traditionally the Tories both federally and provincially fare poorly there.

Kevin Falcon Roundtable

Despite having most of my attention focused on the federal scene, I still remain active within the BC Liberals. However, since we have a majority government provincially and all the major changes that helped take BC from last to first were made in the first term, it has rather been quiet on the provincial scene. It was interesting to meet with Kevin Falcon and hear about the government's plans on transportation as well as other issues. He is generally one of the more conservative members of the BC Liberals, but I would still argue a strong minister. After all I was a former Progressive Conservative so I have no problem working with libertarian oriented conservatives, it is the social conservatives I have problems with.

My question was on the Patullo Bridge, when would the government would put a median to help prevent the high number of fatal accidents on the bridge. As it turns out, it is under Translink's jurisdiction (one of the many dumb things the NDP did when in power in BC). Another issue discussed was the Port Mann Bridge. The government is considering tolling it since the cost of twinning it would be too high, which require either raising taxes or going into deficit, something the government doesn't want to do. I suspected many would oppose it, but apparently 56% support the idea. I personally support tolling bridges and upgraded roads. As much as a pain in the neck it would be for me, hopefully it would cut down on the number of people using cars, which would be good for our environment. Finally there was a question on the government abandoning its earlier conservative positions. He argued that many of the earlier decisions were made in order to turn around the finances and economy in BC and now that this has been done, we can afford to invest that money in the future of the province. He argued that the party has not moved to the left. I would argue it has taken a more centrist approach, but this has been due to the fact that we can now do so. The NDP swung the province so far to the left that we had to adopt a right wing fiscal agenda, much like the federal Liberals did in the early 90s to turn things around. Now that we have healthy surpluses, we can afford to invest in education, health care, and infrastructure.

Canada's Near Terror Attack

As most have probably heard 17 suspects were arrested in connection with an attempted terror plot . I would like to send my kudos out to the RCMP, CSIS, and all law enforcement officials who helped foil this plot. I also would like to condemn those idiots who vandalized a mosque . Most Muslims are good honest citizens, not supporters of terrorism, so we should not blame the whole community for the radical views of a few individuals. I am glad even our public safety minister, Stockwell Day, who I absolutely despise, admitted most Canadian Muslims are honest citizens.

In light of this failed attack, it is clear Canada is a target, but the question is what is the cause. Stephen Harper believes it is our way of life and our freedoms, but I personally don't buy this argument. Others argue it is our role in Afghanistan and our close alliance with the United States. Even though there is likely not one reason for it, I think this argument has far more merit than the former one. I don't think we should just pull out of Afghanistan just because we are a target, but I do think we need to decide whether the benefits from being in Afghanistan outweigh the risks. People will differ on this including even those within the Liberal Party, but personally I don't believe the benefits of being in Afghanistan outweigh the risks.

Stephane Dion's Conference Call

Well it looks like my blog is finally getting noticed. Stephane Dion agreed to do a conference call with several Liberal bloggers from across the country. Last week he did it with declared Dion supporters, while this week with undecided supporters. Due to my busy work schedule, I was only able to participate in the first half of the conference call.

On the conference call, there were Liberal bloggers from different regions of Canada, myself being someone from the West Coast. First Stephane Dion gave an introduction. I was generally pleased with his emphasis on his experience, achievements, and his vision. While he didn't delve too much into specifics, I generally like what I heard. After that, each blogger got to ask one question. The first question from a blogger from London, Ontario was on the role of the private sector in health care. Stephane Dion mentioned the importance of upholding the Canada Health Act, but at the same time said the current growth of spending in health care is unsustainable long-term. I was quite pleased that he was willing to look at the idea of major reforms to help save health care. He off course disagreed with Klein's Third Way (which I support personally), but I am glad he is at least open to making reforms, even if they don't go as far as I want. Most importantly he recognizes that throwing more money at the problem won't solve it.

My Question was on the Kyoto Protocol and how he would achieve it and could Canada meet its targets. He seemed to suggest it was possible to meet our targets, although I am skeptical of this. He did however say the focus must be on putting pressure on industry to move to greener technologies. He also pointed out how countries like Sweden have not only met their Kyoto targets, but have done well economically by creating a large sector in exporting green technologies. This could be especially important with emerging economies such as China and India. I initially opposed the Kyoto Protocol since I was worried about its affects on the economy, especially in the province of Alberta where most my family comes from. However, if we can meet our targets without hurting the economy, then I fully support it. I believe global warming does exist and we need to deal with it, but without harming our economy. The fact he has a plan to achieve both: sustainable environment and economic growth is definitely a positive.

The final question before I had to depart was on democratic reform. On his website he has written a fair bit on this topic. He mentioned possibilities such as the German system of Mixed PR as well as senate reform. However, he did mention that this needs more debate. I am skeptical of PR since our experiences with minority governments has generally not been good, but since they have worked well elsewhere, perhaps maybe the problem lies with our politicians and their unwillingness to work with those of different political persuasions. I fully agree that BC and Alberta are under-represented in the senate, which I know Paul Martin mentioned and I think before we start electing senators this should be fixed.

On the whole I was pleased with what I saw, but I still haven't yet made a decision. I can say though to anyone from Stephane Dion's campaign reading this that whoever I do end up endorsing, I will fully back Dion should he be chosen as leader. I know he has quite a bit of support here in BC.

On a side note, I know there has been a lot of talk about Joe Volpe's sketchy campaign contributions. Let me just say that while Joe Volpe didn't break the election act, what happened certainly went against the spirit of it. I think if we are serious about winning the next election, all our candidates need to stop this kind of stuff otherwise Canadians will conclude we haven't learned anything from our defeat.