Campbell has massive lead in two polls
Recently two polls have come out showing the BC Liberals have a lead of 16% and 17% respectively, suggesting the benefits of their policies are beginning to pay off. At first, I thought the Mustel poll might have been a rogue poll, but with the Ipsos-Reid Poll showing similiar results, I suspect it is a clear trend. I believe much of this has to do with the fact Campbell's policies appear more centrist than in his first term, but also the benefits of the strong economy due to his leadership is beginning to pay off. Rather than making policies on the fly based on public opinion at the moment, his policies were based on the long-term goal of turning BC around from the mess the NDP left behind and making it once again the leader in Canada in economic growth and job creation. When you have a strong economy you can lower taxes and spend more on programs important to British Columbians. Also this is the first poll in quite some time where his approval rating exceeds his disapproval rating. While a lot can happen between now and the next three years, this is definitely encouraging. After all a mere two years ago, he was trailing by 7-8 points in the polls and had an approval rating barely over 30%. I have just recently renewed my membership in the BC Liberals and although my focus is now on the federal scene with the upcoming Liberal leadership race, I certainly plan to focus more on the provincial scene once the next federal election passes by and Stephen Harper is turfed from office.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 10:31 PM
7 Comments:
I certainly plan to focus more on the provincial scene once the next federal election passes by and Stephen Harper is turfed from office.
Getting a little ahead of yourself, aren't you?
I remember you saying this all last election....and it not happening....hmmm.
The next provincial election will be in May 2009. I highly doubt considering it is a minority government that it will last until then. And as for Harper being turfed, I have no way of knowing whether that will happen or not, I can only hope it will, although if either Rae or Volpe wins I won't be too enthusiastic about either of those two winning. Any of the other candidates with a realistic chance of winning (Hedy Fry has no chance at winning so I am not including here) I could happily support.
Premier Campbell had some serious heavy lifting to do in his first term. Making those tough decisions didn't make him the most popular figure in BC Politics.
With the hard work of the first term complete, the BC Liberals have focused on an agenda that is less about changing things and more about improving things.
It is also important not forget how bad 10 years of NDP Government where in BC. Here are a few of the lows.........
- A crushing marginal income tax rate of 54.4%
- Under the NDP, real GDP growth fell from a high of 8% above the Cdn average, to 8% below the Cdn average.
- The 1990's were truly were a "lost decade" under the NDP. Ask any student who graduated in the 1990's how tough it was to find a job in BC.
The polling numbers confirm the great job Premier Campbell and the BC Liberals have done in this Province. I'll be helping the BC Liberals in 2009, I hope we see you on the campaign trail.
The BC Liberals are probably about 2/3 conservative and 1/3 Liberals. Since I am a conservative on economic issues I can work with them. However the 1/3 who are Liberals certainly help pull the party towards the centre. After all the current finance minister Carole Taylor is probably a Liberal considering her husband Art Philips was a former Liberal MP and she was a strong defender of public broadcasting, not something you usually see from a Conservative, especially not in its current incarnation. Secondly ex-ndip, I am not sure Harper will win the next election. The economy is beginning to overheat so with interest rates likely to rise we could be heading into a downturn and although it is beyond the government's control the fact the economy was so strong when the Liberals were in power while weak the last time the Tories were in power could make a strong case that the Liberals are more competent managers than the Tories. I off course know the economy is largely out of control of the government, but the average voter doesn't think this.
I fully agree with Walter Schulz. The NDP left us in a mess and tough decisions had to be made. Now that those are behind us, the government can focus more on positive news instead of making tough choices. This was an example of leadership, not playing to the daily polls or focus groups.
Liberal Fortunes - You are absolutely right, three years is a long ways away. As for my endorsement, I've narrowed it down to Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff. Tomorrow I will be going to a Stephane Dion event so I may make a decision then.
Good choice to get more involved with the B.C. Liberals Miles. They're hosting a lot of events and activities for their members these days, and with the NDP always around, it is a fun place to be and still feel like you're contributing to the greater good.
The economy is doing very well, however I don't think you can give Campbell any more credit for the good economy as you can blame the poor economy at the end of the 90s on the NDP. A recent National Post headline proclaimed that Canada was experiencing its strongest economy in fify years. Surely the BC economy has been swept along by forces much more powerful than an tax cut here and an increased user fee there.
The poll difference I'd attribute to 1. the strong economy and 2. the invisibility of Carol James. If the NDP had a more charismatic leader, I'm sure the polls would be closer.
You are right Brian that the economy is largely doing well for reasons other than the government. However in the 90s when the NDP was in power, the economy was doing well elsewhere in Canada so while governments cannot create booms, they can hold a province back from enjoying the boom, which is what the NDP did.
On Carole James, you are absolutely right she has been invisible. We haven't heard a thing about the provincial scene for ages. However, I think it would depend on who they choose. If they choose a moderate like Mike Farworth, they will still be trailing in the polls, but by a smaller margin, while if they choose a wacko like Harry Lali they would be even further behind. Most NDP voters are centre-left, not far left. Also Campbell has been more centrist in his second term than first term. Tax cuts, spending cuts, de-regulation, and privatization were mostly in his first term. Chretien followed a similiar pattern adopting many similiar policies in his first term while moving to the left each successive term. This worked well for him whereas Mike Harris who adopted similiar policies to Campbell in both his first and second term easily won a second term, but shortly into his second term became quite unpopular. Otherwise people seem to be okay with major downsizing in government every now and then, but only for one term. If done for two terms than one runs into trouble as Mike Harris did.
Post a Comment
<< Home