Liberal Post Convention Bounce or Permanent Lead?
This past week four polls have come out which all show great news for the Liberals and bad news for the Conservatives. While this may be a post-convention bounce, I would say at the moment the likelihood of Harper winning the next election is under 50%. As PM he hasn't really inspired too many people, while angered a good chunk of the population, although the majority are probably neutral. Dion in all the polls leads in BC, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, while is second in Quebec ahead of the Conservatives and behind the Bloc Quebecois, a very close second in the Prairies, while Alberta remains the lone area where the Tories are still well out in front. I think last election was one the Liberals lost rather than the Tories won. Had the Liberals choosen a leader Canadians didn't like they would still be trailing, but since they choose one Canadians are comfortable with they have pulled ahead. While a lot can change between now and the next election, we are definitely in a great position, so lets keep it up.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 10:17 AM
5 Comments:
Miles,
My Conservative friends and acquaintances are panicking big time -- they know it's the end of the road and most doubt that this situation is recoverable.
It will take a miracle for the Prime Minister to reverse this downslide. Harper is supposed to be close to a genius. He has got his work cut out for him if he hopes to reverse this incredibly damaging political train wreck.
In Conservative circles, power tends to be a fleeting phenomenon. That is something that Stephen Harper is truly about to discover, to his peril.
I don't think this is a bounce, but a return to the natural order of things. People didn't elect the Conservatives, they kicked out the Liberals. Now that we are moving beyond scandal and there appears new energy within the Liberal Party, the disaffected are returning. The bounce sticks, unless the Liberals fumble.
Ed King - I think most Canadians will see through the smears as I don't think negative campaigning works particiularly well.
PST - I think most Conservatives, even if they won't admit it or generally worried.
Steve V - I wouldn't say it is so much a return to the natural order as more people are dissatisfied with Harper. Had Harper done a good job been more centrist and concillatory, the numbers would be much different. He is right wing and divisive policies are what is hurting his party.
PST - I think most Conservatives, even if they won't admit it or generally worried
Give me a break. Apparently three of the four days of that Decima poll was during the convention, before Dion was even chosen.
When a political party dominates the news cycle with its message for several days, it's only natural that it's poll numbers would go up.
I remember what it was like when the Liberals were up by 30 points or more. For them to be raving about being up by a mere 4 after an exciting leadership convention shows just how far they've fallen.
The Libs count Harper out at their own peril.
Brandon - The tories have seen their numbers falling since August, so even if it is just a post-convention bounce, the parties will still be tied. In addition in Ontario the Tories are still in the mid 30s, the major change is the NDP vote has dropped dramatically and I suspect the reason the drop only occurred now is most dippers feel Harper is worse than the Liberals, but would have stuck with the NDP had Ignatieff won. Since most were expecting either Ignatieff or Rae to win, I suspect that is why the Liberals are in more favourable territory.
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