Gilles Duceppe running for PQ leader
With Duceppe now announcing he is stepping down as Bloc leader and running for PQ leader, it looks even less likely that we will have an election any time soon. While I would like to see the Liberals return to power ASAP, I also feel the longer the Harper government is in power, the better the odds are, so if we don't have an election until the spring of 2008, that is okay by me. In addition with Manitoba and PEI already holding spring elections, Newfoundland & Labrador and Ontario definitely holding fall elections and the high likelihood Alberta and Saskatchewan will as well, I suspect there was some reluctance to have an election any time soon as having one too close to a provincial election carries risks for whichever party triggers it. If Duceppe does become PQ leader, I believe it could be good news for them as he is well liked in Quebec unlike Andre Boisclair and in fact part of the reason the BQ didn't suffer as heavily as the PQ in the last federal election could be attributed to Duceppe's personal popularity. On the other hand his leaving the BQ could be bad news for them, but good news for both the Tories and Liberals as neither party can get a majority without winning significant number of seats in Quebec. Even though I disagreed with his view of creating a sovereign Quebec, I always saw him as a good leader for the BQ.
In other news the Tories are calling for increasing the seats in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta. While the additional five seats in Alberta will undoubtedly help the Tories, the 7 new seats in British Columbia and 10 new seats in Ontario could go either way just depending on what part of the province they are located in. However, I support this as a matter of principle since I believe we should strive to ensure a vote no matter where casted carries the same weight. I am willing to grant some leeway to large Northern ridings and smaller provinces having slightly smaller constituencies so their concerns aren't drowned out and in the case of Northern ridings, the size of the riding isn't so large that it is impossible for the MP to be accessible to their constituents. At the same time the distortion is way too large. The important test here is that the new ridings by done by Elections Canada and they are not stacked with partisan appointments. This will ensure the additional ridings are added where there is the largest population growth, not where it will provide the greatest political advantage to a certain party. My guess is in Alberta, they will be in Calgary and Edmonton, in Ontario in the 905 belt and in BC in the Lower Mainland suburbs and Fraser Valley. There will probably be one new riding in the Fraser Valley which will almost certainly go Conservative, but the other ones in the Lower Mainland are unlikely to be Tory strongholds, although the only new riding I could see being a Liberal strong one will be in the Downtown core (population has exploded in this region as people are actually moving back from the suburbs to the downtown peninsula). In Ontario the 905 belt is generally Liberal, however the fastest growing suburbs are the outerlying ones like Milton and Whitby, which tend to be more bellwether ridings. Also the Ottawa suburbs are growing reasonably fast, so any new seats there could potentially benefit the Tories as the Tories dominate pretty much everywhere in Eastern Ontario except the Ottawa core and Kingston. At least the Rural areas shouldn't be getting any new seats.
In other news Flaherty is back tracking on his policy of ending tax deductions for foreign expansions. This was an incredibly stupid policy that was almost universally condemned by the business community. As much as people say the Tories are the party of business, I would argue they've done a lot to burn bridges with Bay Street since being elected and if anything this will likely cost them in the more affluent ridings. Besides, good business policies are good for the economy and good for Canada. I don't buy the NDP idea of pitting business against everyone else. The Liberals understand you need a strong economy to have a socially just one, which is another reason I support the Liberals. The Tories now appear to neither understand the importance of economic prosperity or social justice, but seem more interested in buying votes from those they think will give them their coveted majority.
UPDATE: Gilles Duceppe has already withdrawn, still my prediction that the next election won't come until next spring stands. His decision to stay as BQ leader will be their gain while the PQ's loss.
In other news the Tories are calling for increasing the seats in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta. While the additional five seats in Alberta will undoubtedly help the Tories, the 7 new seats in British Columbia and 10 new seats in Ontario could go either way just depending on what part of the province they are located in. However, I support this as a matter of principle since I believe we should strive to ensure a vote no matter where casted carries the same weight. I am willing to grant some leeway to large Northern ridings and smaller provinces having slightly smaller constituencies so their concerns aren't drowned out and in the case of Northern ridings, the size of the riding isn't so large that it is impossible for the MP to be accessible to their constituents. At the same time the distortion is way too large. The important test here is that the new ridings by done by Elections Canada and they are not stacked with partisan appointments. This will ensure the additional ridings are added where there is the largest population growth, not where it will provide the greatest political advantage to a certain party. My guess is in Alberta, they will be in Calgary and Edmonton, in Ontario in the 905 belt and in BC in the Lower Mainland suburbs and Fraser Valley. There will probably be one new riding in the Fraser Valley which will almost certainly go Conservative, but the other ones in the Lower Mainland are unlikely to be Tory strongholds, although the only new riding I could see being a Liberal strong one will be in the Downtown core (population has exploded in this region as people are actually moving back from the suburbs to the downtown peninsula). In Ontario the 905 belt is generally Liberal, however the fastest growing suburbs are the outerlying ones like Milton and Whitby, which tend to be more bellwether ridings. Also the Ottawa suburbs are growing reasonably fast, so any new seats there could potentially benefit the Tories as the Tories dominate pretty much everywhere in Eastern Ontario except the Ottawa core and Kingston. At least the Rural areas shouldn't be getting any new seats.
In other news Flaherty is back tracking on his policy of ending tax deductions for foreign expansions. This was an incredibly stupid policy that was almost universally condemned by the business community. As much as people say the Tories are the party of business, I would argue they've done a lot to burn bridges with Bay Street since being elected and if anything this will likely cost them in the more affluent ridings. Besides, good business policies are good for the economy and good for Canada. I don't buy the NDP idea of pitting business against everyone else. The Liberals understand you need a strong economy to have a socially just one, which is another reason I support the Liberals. The Tories now appear to neither understand the importance of economic prosperity or social justice, but seem more interested in buying votes from those they think will give them their coveted majority.
UPDATE: Gilles Duceppe has already withdrawn, still my prediction that the next election won't come until next spring stands. His decision to stay as BQ leader will be their gain while the PQ's loss.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 8:37 AM
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