Belinda Stronach's decision not to run
I noticed many Tories are rejoicing at this, while Liberals are mixed on this. I on the whole was generally impressed with Belinda Stronach as a politician since as much as Tories hated her, she represented your typical 905 type conservative much like Garth Turner did who are fiscally conservative, but socially moderate and have little interest in the hard right policies than many from Western Canada and Rural Ontario support. I felt her suggestions at making the party more grassroots were also quite helpful. While some think she is doing it since the polls suggest the Liberals won't win the next election and she doesn't want to be in opposition, I am less sure about this as politics is a very difficult job. As an MP you really don't have much of a life other than work, so I can understand why so many are not running again.
As for all the Liberals not running again, I see this as a mixture of positive and negative. On the one had the lost of incumbency could put some of those seats in jeopardy, but by the same token getting new fresh blood in the party could help renew the party and bring new ideas. While in some cases such as Jim Peterson, Bill Graham, and Paul Martin, I doubt their loss will make much difference in terms of winneablity as those are all safe Liberal ridings. Also Bill Matthews riding was potentially vulnerable up until the budget was dropped, but with Danny Williams promising to campaign against the federal Conservatives and the Tory candidate Cynthia Downey from last time quitting the party, I think that one will stay Liberal. At the same time some ridings such as Fredericton and Newmarket-Aurora which we should have easily won are now up for grabs and could go either way, others like Guelph will likely go Liberal, but not a guarantee, while the worse loss was in Huron-Bruce, which I highly doubt we will hold considering how conservative the riding is and the fact Paul Steckle was generally well to the right of most of the party. Newmarket-Aurora is an outerlying suburb like Burlington, Halton, and Whitby-Oshawa so it is not a solid Liberal riding like Markham, Mississauga (save Mississauga South), Brampton, and Richmond Hill areas which are very ethnically diverse and quite cosmopolitan. On the other hand it is not a safe Tory one like the exurban areas such as Durham, York-Simcoe, and Wellington-Halton Hills, so tough to say how it will go.
Anyways while the Tories hated her much like Garth Turner (and I will admit she had her fair share of flaws), I suspect many disliked her less over personality and more because they saw her as too moderate for the party since many of these same people have no problem with people like Rob Anders, Myron Thompson, Randy White, Cheryl Gallant, and Jason Kenney who are even to a staunch fiscal conservative like me are downright terrifying. I think her defection was our gain and their loss.
As for all the Liberals not running again, I see this as a mixture of positive and negative. On the one had the lost of incumbency could put some of those seats in jeopardy, but by the same token getting new fresh blood in the party could help renew the party and bring new ideas. While in some cases such as Jim Peterson, Bill Graham, and Paul Martin, I doubt their loss will make much difference in terms of winneablity as those are all safe Liberal ridings. Also Bill Matthews riding was potentially vulnerable up until the budget was dropped, but with Danny Williams promising to campaign against the federal Conservatives and the Tory candidate Cynthia Downey from last time quitting the party, I think that one will stay Liberal. At the same time some ridings such as Fredericton and Newmarket-Aurora which we should have easily won are now up for grabs and could go either way, others like Guelph will likely go Liberal, but not a guarantee, while the worse loss was in Huron-Bruce, which I highly doubt we will hold considering how conservative the riding is and the fact Paul Steckle was generally well to the right of most of the party. Newmarket-Aurora is an outerlying suburb like Burlington, Halton, and Whitby-Oshawa so it is not a solid Liberal riding like Markham, Mississauga (save Mississauga South), Brampton, and Richmond Hill areas which are very ethnically diverse and quite cosmopolitan. On the other hand it is not a safe Tory one like the exurban areas such as Durham, York-Simcoe, and Wellington-Halton Hills, so tough to say how it will go.
Anyways while the Tories hated her much like Garth Turner (and I will admit she had her fair share of flaws), I suspect many disliked her less over personality and more because they saw her as too moderate for the party since many of these same people have no problem with people like Rob Anders, Myron Thompson, Randy White, Cheryl Gallant, and Jason Kenney who are even to a staunch fiscal conservative like me are downright terrifying. I think her defection was our gain and their loss.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 7:35 PM
2 Comments:
She wont be too far away from the spotlight dont you worry. Garth will be there to help her too.
More interesting stuff about Garth turner on Repo's blog.
Who knows what Belinda Stronach will do. It is too bad she didn't make the announcement earlier so Martha-Hall Findlay could run in this riding. With Martha Hall-Findlay as Liberal candidate, this would stay Liberal, but now this riding likes quite vulnerable. Since Willowdale is a safe Liberal riding, I would advise Dion to allow Martha Hall-Findlay to switch to Newmarket-Aurora since Willowdale is one where they can run a no namer and win whereas Newmarket-Aurora isn't.
Halton voter - Garth Turner is certainly amusing, that being said I think he has only discovered what many former PCs know long before him. His party left him in 2003 and it took him four years to finally realize this.
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