By-Election tonight

Tonight we have three by-elections in Quebec and this could have profound meanings for each party on whether they want to trigger an election or hold back after the throne speech is delivered. For the Conservatives; although not winning any seat wouldn't be a loss per se, as they hold none of the three, the fact they have expended so much effort on courting Quebec and cannot even pick up their 11th best riding in the province (the other 10 they won), will bring into question whether they can get a majority at all without gaining seats in Quebec. Off course if they win one of the two, it will show their efforts are producing some results and if they win both Bloc ridings, you can bet Harper will do everything possible to ensure the opposition opposes the throne speech and triggers an election. For the Bloc Quebecois, a win in Outremont (which is highly unlikely) would be a sweet victory for them and probably cause them to vote against the throne speech. Holding the two ridings, they have now, probably would as well, however if they lose either of the ridings they hold, I suspect they will want to figure out why the sovereignists movement has had nothing but trouble since the last federal election. The Liberals absolutely must win Outremont if they are to avoid any problems. While I doubt Dion will be turfed as leader before the next election, it could weaken the unity of the party, so I hope they do hold Outremont. For the NDP, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Since they were not a factor in Quebec in the first place, a loss in Outremont, means the status quo, while a win would be a huge coup as they have never won a seat in a general election in Quebec and only once in a by-election before. Below I have each riding listed and will post my projection once the results come in and I feel one candidate is ahead by enough to be declared elected. Below that I will give a summary on how things shaped up once all the polls are in.

Outremont

It pains me to do this but I'm calling it for Thomas Mulclair (NDP). Boy I hope I am wrong here

Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot

Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac (Bloc Quebecois) elected

Roberval-Lac Saint Jean

Denis Lebel (Conservative) elected