Throne Speech and Election
Stephen Harper has prorogued parliament and is going to deliver a throne speech on October 16th. Personally I think this is unnecessary, but this leads to the possibility of an election as the Throne Speech is a vote of confidence and if the government loses it an election will be called. With no credible poll showing the Conservatives anywhere near majority territory, it seems bizarre to me why the Tories would even want to take this risk. I can understand them not wanting the government to fall while Ontario is in the middle of election as far each party this could mean fewer campaign workers and also runs the risk of possibly causing voter confusion. However, this could be achieved by each party agreeing not to introduce a non-confidence motion and likewise the Tories will not bring forward any bill which is a motion of confidence until the Ontario election is over.
As for what will happen, I cannot say. An election is not really beneficial to any party as there is no party who has consistently polled higher than what they got last election save for perhaps the Liberals, still most polls only show us only tied with the Tories meaning winning the next election at this point is far from certain. By the same token, we may just get an election no party wants.
Liberals: The Liberals have set out a list of priorities they want included in the Throne Speech and seeing what they are, I have a tough time believing Harper will include them so to get the Liberals to support it, one of the parties will have to blink, which will not look good for whichever party that is.
Bloc Quebecois: To date the Bloc Quebecois has voted with the government on three confidence motions, but this time around they are demanding the Throne Speech include pulling out of Afghanistan in 2009 and considering how unpopular the Afghan mission is in Quebec, I believe they would vote against it if the Tories don't include this promise. Considering how Stephen Harper has made clear he strongly believes in the mission and doesn't believe in "cutting and running" he would look like a hypocrit if he did include this although it could happen since he has flip flopped on other issues when defeat is staring him down.
NDP: They haven't really set any demands and have more or less argued the Throne Speech is just a bunch of promises, which they claim past governments rarely keep. At the same time they are the party who has voted with the government the least amount of times.
So in summary, I cannot really predict what will happen. One party may decide going to an election is too risky and therefore blink or all the opposition parties may worry more about how they will look if they blink and therefore vote against the Throne Speech causing an election no party wants.
On Monday, I will have more on the upcoming provincial election here in Ontario when the writ is officially dropped.
As for what will happen, I cannot say. An election is not really beneficial to any party as there is no party who has consistently polled higher than what they got last election save for perhaps the Liberals, still most polls only show us only tied with the Tories meaning winning the next election at this point is far from certain. By the same token, we may just get an election no party wants.
Liberals: The Liberals have set out a list of priorities they want included in the Throne Speech and seeing what they are, I have a tough time believing Harper will include them so to get the Liberals to support it, one of the parties will have to blink, which will not look good for whichever party that is.
Bloc Quebecois: To date the Bloc Quebecois has voted with the government on three confidence motions, but this time around they are demanding the Throne Speech include pulling out of Afghanistan in 2009 and considering how unpopular the Afghan mission is in Quebec, I believe they would vote against it if the Tories don't include this promise. Considering how Stephen Harper has made clear he strongly believes in the mission and doesn't believe in "cutting and running" he would look like a hypocrit if he did include this although it could happen since he has flip flopped on other issues when defeat is staring him down.
NDP: They haven't really set any demands and have more or less argued the Throne Speech is just a bunch of promises, which they claim past governments rarely keep. At the same time they are the party who has voted with the government the least amount of times.
So in summary, I cannot really predict what will happen. One party may decide going to an election is too risky and therefore blink or all the opposition parties may worry more about how they will look if they blink and therefore vote against the Throne Speech causing an election no party wants.
On Monday, I will have more on the upcoming provincial election here in Ontario when the writ is officially dropped.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 11:13 AM
5 Comments:
Miles, I personally think doing a Throne Speech is a excellent political move on the part of the CPC. As you describe someone is going to have to blink on a host of issues and if the CPC waters down some they have the time honored we are listening to the Canadian people scenario to fall back on. The also get rid of some pesky bills that they cannot or do not want to support like C-30 and these bills we require full house support to bring them back at their present stages which they will not get. The bills that the CPC kill that they want back our fire proof that would damage the other parties if they do not bring them back as they are all Crime bills. Also as an side thought of what the TS will include, I think the results of the bi-elections will have a great deal to do with its contents, if the LPC loses in Outremont, and the CPC wins a two of those riding or even one riding and close in other, then all bets are off, you might see them author a Throne Speech to bring down the govt because the LPC and Blog will be in a state of shock.
I think Harper wants to help John Tory in Ontario. He can send his goons to get mixed up with Tory and Randy Hillier and they will all be at home.
Kingston - You do have a good point, but my point was that we don't really need an election now so why go about playing games. The CPC should try and govern until their mandate expires and the opposition should keep a close eye on them and introduce a non-confidence motion if any point they believe they have lost the moral right to govern.
Scottie - Considering the Liberals and NDP also have provincial cousins, I think avoiding having one during the Ontario provincial election is in everybody's political interest with perhaps the exception of the Bloc Quebecois. Lets remember campaigns require campaign workers and many PCs, Liberals, and NDP campaign workers are also active federally in their respective parties (or in a few cases in other parties i.e. Red Tories supporting John Tory provincially and Dion federally). If the two elections are occurring simultaneously, this will mean fewer campaign workers.
Miles, I personally agree with you as a person who straddles the center about no real need for an election right now but there are quite a few farther to the left and right of me that are clamoring for one right now. The right because they are saying they are not being allowed to proceed with their policies, and the left to bring down the govt before it destroys " Canadian Values" per say. Although if any single govt can destroy this country in four years, I fear we might not have had any true values in the first place. Again just my thoughts, Rip away at them
Kingston - You are right those further to the left and right are more eager for an election, but historically the centre is where the largest chunk of the electorate is. It is pretty much impossible to win in Canada by appealing exclusively to the right or left. That is the reason the NDP never has formed government and the reason the Reform/Alliance parties couldn't and the reason the Tories had to jettison a lot of their former Reform policies before being electable.
That being said I do fine people tend to go into politics because they believe in something passionately so there are probably fewer centrists in parliament than amongst the general populace.
Post a Comment
<< Home