South Carolina and Nevada Primaries
Last Weekend, the Republicans had primaries in South Carolina and Nevada, while the Democrats had one in Nevada. I was pleased to see McCain win South Carolina, while disappointed that Obama didn't win Nevada. As for what this means, here is my interpretation.
Republicans
Romney's win in Nevada no doubt puts him back in the game since he now has two wins (three if you include the Wyoming delegates) under his belt. At the same time this was overshadowed by South Carolina, which is a key state. Usually whoever, wins this goes on to win the Republican nomination. While I wouldn't say it is sure thing McCain will win, he is definitely looking strong. South Carolina has a large Evangelical community and this is a crucial part of the Republican base. Many including myself thought McCain was too moderate for this group. This also weakens Huckabee's campaign considerably as this was the group he was strongest amongst. I would say that if he cannot carry several Southern states on Super Tuesday, his run is over. Likewise Guiliani's dismal showings to date pretty much mean he must win in Florida or his run is over. Romney's main area of strength is more the Midwest and Mountain West since despite his social conservatism, the fact he is a Mormon is probably a liability in the South. Off course, while I am happy McCain won in the sense that I see him as one of the better choices amongst the Republicans, I am somewhat concerned in the sense that he just might be able to win the presidency, whereas at least Huckabee and Romney are far less likely to become president. By the same token, I find their views so repulsive that I would rather have a Republican leader I can tolerate, than one I absolutely despise. Since I am not a hardcore conservative, I don't think I will like any leader the Republicans choose.
Democrats
Hilary Clinton's win in Nevada undoubtedly gives her a lot of momentum, however it is still much too early to make any predictions. The next few states will be very crucial in determining whether Obama remains a competitor or not. John Edwards stands little chance at this point of winning the Democrat nomination and I suspect, if he doesn't win South Carolina, he will have no choice but to bow out. Even though I am disappointed that Hilary Clinton won Nevada, I would still support her over any of the Republicans. However, I not only prefer Obama's vision to hers, I believe he will be tougher for the Republicans to beat than Clinton.
Republicans
Romney's win in Nevada no doubt puts him back in the game since he now has two wins (three if you include the Wyoming delegates) under his belt. At the same time this was overshadowed by South Carolina, which is a key state. Usually whoever, wins this goes on to win the Republican nomination. While I wouldn't say it is sure thing McCain will win, he is definitely looking strong. South Carolina has a large Evangelical community and this is a crucial part of the Republican base. Many including myself thought McCain was too moderate for this group. This also weakens Huckabee's campaign considerably as this was the group he was strongest amongst. I would say that if he cannot carry several Southern states on Super Tuesday, his run is over. Likewise Guiliani's dismal showings to date pretty much mean he must win in Florida or his run is over. Romney's main area of strength is more the Midwest and Mountain West since despite his social conservatism, the fact he is a Mormon is probably a liability in the South. Off course, while I am happy McCain won in the sense that I see him as one of the better choices amongst the Republicans, I am somewhat concerned in the sense that he just might be able to win the presidency, whereas at least Huckabee and Romney are far less likely to become president. By the same token, I find their views so repulsive that I would rather have a Republican leader I can tolerate, than one I absolutely despise. Since I am not a hardcore conservative, I don't think I will like any leader the Republicans choose.
Democrats
Hilary Clinton's win in Nevada undoubtedly gives her a lot of momentum, however it is still much too early to make any predictions. The next few states will be very crucial in determining whether Obama remains a competitor or not. John Edwards stands little chance at this point of winning the Democrat nomination and I suspect, if he doesn't win South Carolina, he will have no choice but to bow out. Even though I am disappointed that Hilary Clinton won Nevada, I would still support her over any of the Republicans. However, I not only prefer Obama's vision to hers, I believe he will be tougher for the Republicans to beat than Clinton.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 5:48 PM
2 Comments:
The main reason McCain won SC was because the Evangelical vote got split between Huckabee and Thompson (who has since dropped out). McCain was able to easily win the more moderate coastal areas to counter losses in the extremely conservative upstate.
I think Romney will win Florida by being consistent across the state (McCain is hurt by the fact it is only for registered Republicans, Giuliani will struggle in the more conservative northern areas and Huckabee likewise in the southern areas), and Obama will win the South Carolina Democratic primary since Blacks dominate the SC Democratic Party. (Like Michigan, the Florida Democratic primary is meaningless).
Anonymous - It is very true that Huckabee might have won South Carolina were it not for splitting the vote with Thompson. It is odd that unlike here in Canada, there is no run-off if no one gets above 50% (if this were the case Ignatieff, not Dion would be Liberal leader). That being said, this definitely gives McCain the momentum, making him the definite frontrunner. In Florida, I agree Guiliani likely won't win it and likewise Huckabee's strength will be in the more Conservative northern parts which tend to be more like the rest of the Deep South, while Guiliani's strength will probably be primarily in the Southern parts of the state, which interestingly enough are more Northeastern in both their voting patterns and demographics, thus more moderate.
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