By-Election results

Now that the final results are in, here is my take on the by-election and I will try to give a non-partisan approach that looks at the results as fairly as possible. It is important to note voter turnouts were very low in all of these ridings so one should be careful in reading too much into any of these. Since the voter turnout will almost certainly be better in the next general election, the results may be very different.

Conservatives: A good showing, but not great. They won Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River and nearly won in the liberal stonghold of Vancouver-Quadra, however they failed to make headway in the two Toronto ridings. So although they are looking strong in Western Canada, they already hold the majority of seats here so they need to make gains in the East if they want to get a majority. In fact most polls showing the Tories up from the Manitoba/Ontario border Westward while down East of the Ontario/Manitoba border, however there are twice as many seats east of the Ontario/Manitoba border as to the West. That being said while polls place the Tories in the low 30s in Ontario right now, they were flirting with the 40% not too long ago, so if they spent less times trying to pick fights with the provincial government and bashing the province, they could also do better in Ontario.

Liberals: Not a great night, but not terrible either. They won both Toronto ridings by solid margins and in fact so their share of the popular vote go up in both, but their loss by a large margin in DMCR and near loss in liberal stronghold of Vancouver-Quadra, shows they Liberals are in trouble in Western Canada. And while they can win a minority without winning many seats in Western Canada, they will need to do much better if they ever want to win a majority government. Since they can no longer pull off sweeps of Quebec (as Trudeau did) or Ontario (as Chretien did) they will need to do better here if they want to do better than a weak minority government.

NDP: They weren't expected to win any ridings, but their drop in the share of the popular vote is not a good thing for them.

Green Party: No wins as expected, but the fact they got into double digits in Toronto Centre and Vancouver-Quadra is definitely a good sign for them in terms of at least making their issues ones the mainstream parties have to contend with.

Toronto Centre

Bob Rae as expected won, but also increased his share of the popular vote by 7% so definitely a good sign with the Liberals. In fact if the trend in Toronto Centre in terms of vote increases and decreases played out across Ontario, the results would be very similiar to 2004 meaning a Liberal minority and that any Conservative gains in the West would be offset by Liberal gains in Ontario. Although I would never want to see Bob Rae become PM after his disastrous rule as premier, he is a very effective debater and knows where Harper's weaknesses are and can take hm on. Dion may be a good future PM, but not a great opposition leader, whereas Bob Rae is a great opposition leader, but not the best PM for the future so he will be strong compliment to Dion. The Conservatives fell to fourth and dropped to 12%. I hope this sends a strong message to them that bashing Toronto running a so-con in a riding with a large gay population and turfing a candidate whose views were moderate and represented the riding will get you a well-deserved slap on the wrist. The Tories never stood a chance at winning this riding, but if they keep acting the same as they are now, they may be in danger of not getting their deposit re-imbursed (one must get at least 10% to get their deposit re-imbursed). The NDP has continued their slide in this riding and this cannot be good news in neighbouring ridings which either went NDP or could go NDP. While the inclusion of Rosedale puts this out of reach for the NDP, this also includes areas such as Regent Park and Cabbagetown, which should be NDP friendly turf.

Willowdale

Martha Hall Findlay easily won this riding and increased her share of the popular vote by 4%. She is definitely a strong candidate and I am glad to have her in the House of Commons. The Tories did lose badly here so one could make he argument there are not gaining in the GTA where they need to, but they still did increase their share of the popular vote, even if only by 1% so one can argue that are making small gains in the GTA. Some Tories might point out that while they are declining the core of Toronto, they are holding steady in the suburban parts of the 416 so using this trend they are probably going up in the 905 belt where they do have the potential to win seats. I don't fully buy this argument, however I do agree that if the Tories stopped picking fights with the Ontario premier and were seen as more Ontario friendly, they would be in a good position to gain seats in Ontario and the GTA rather than lose them.

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River

A strong win by the Conservatives and this cannot be played down by the Liberals. Had the Liberals only narrowly lost this, that might be one thing since they only won by 67 votes, but a loss of this size cannot be ignored. While part of it was the appointment of Joan Beatty, I also think the Liberals have failed to capitalize on potential Tory weaknesses in Saskatchewan. The changes in equalization and ending the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly were all suppose to hurt the Tories in Saskatchewan, but this appears not to be the case. I can see two possible reasons for this and I hope whichever it is, the Liberals figure it out and act accordingly. The first is those issues could harm the Tories in Saskatchewan, but they are buried in the backs of newspapers, not front page, so the Liberals have to find a way to make them front page news. Another possibility is those really aren't issues that harm th Tories. Saskatchewan is a borderline have province so the question of equalization may be less of an issue than in the past since they don't pay much into it, but neither do they get much out either. In the case of the Canadian Wheat Board (please note I support a dual marketing system, even though I understand and respect the Liberal position), I wonder if Harper's position is as unpopular as some say. Most MPs in the Wheat Board district are in favour of the changes while most outside it are not, so I wonder if this is a case of MPs elsewhere assuming the views of farmers in their area are held across Canada (supply management is very popular amongst farmers in Eastern Canada and is somewhat similiar to the Wheat Board in terms of both involve government intervention as opposed to the free market), rather that perhaps realizing maybe Western Canadians are more pro-free enterprise than Eastern Canadians and take a different view on government's role in agriculture. I am not saying this is the case, I am simply raising the possibility. I have lived in both Western Canada and Eastern Canada and I have found people in the East tend to be somewhat more skeptical of the free market than in the West.

Vancouver-Quadra

The Liberals won this, but their margin of victory is nothing to celebrate. If this trend were to play out across British Columbia, we could see the Conservatives dominating BC the same way the Alliance did in 2000. While the Tories are dropping in Ontario, they are going up in British Columbia (for whatever reason) and if the Liberals don't do something about it, it could cost them. Having lived in BC and still talking to regularly to family and friends out there, I have noticed that last election, people's attitude towards Harper was much the same as in Ontario, but since then people have generally been impressed with the job he is doing in BC, while generally unhappy here in Ontario. In addition, Dion is considered an acceptable alternative in Ontario, but not reasonating in BC. The problem in the West is the Liberals have traditionally been seen as favouring Central and Eastern Canada so they have to work hard to win in the West. Paul Martin was able to make gains there by spending lots of time out there, producing a made in BC platform and speaking directly on local issues. Had it not been for adscam, I suspect the Liberals would have made their much wanted breakthrough in BC. Unfortunately the gains by Martin may be squandered. Also fair or not fair, most people in Ontario accept Dion's less than perfect English since being so close to Quebec, we understand Canada is a nation of two languages and considering Dion's English is better than 90% of Ontarioan's French, most accept his less than perfect English. In British Columbia, they are far removed from any French speaking area so most British Columbians tend to think of Canada more as an English speaking country since very little French is heard and you have to drive 12 hours straight for four days before you even get into an area with a large French speaking population. Therefore, the expectation is that any leader wishing to be PM should speak English fluently without an accent. This means Dion needs to improve his English if he wants to do well in the West. I have no problem with his English as his English is far better than my French, but I plan to vote Liberal anyways, so what matters is what the typical swing voter as opposed to committed voter thinks.

So, each party has their work cut out. The Tories were doing well in Ontario until they started bashing it, so they need to find a way to make themselves more appealing in Ontario. While they stand no chance at winning Willowdale and Toronto Centre, they could have at least closed the gap, which they didn't. The Liberals on the other hand need to spend at lot more time in Western Canada and focus specifically on issues important to Western Canadians since if they don't make changes, they could get wiped out in Western Canada and this could not only limit their ability to go beyond a weak minority government, it could also cause Western Alientation to flare up again. They need to keep on doing what they are doing in Ontario to ensure the Liberal momentum continues while improve things in the West, while the Tories need to keep their momentum in the West and regain their lost support in Ontario if they wish to win (off course I hope they don't, but I would rather see them lose support equally in all regions than gain in some and lose in others).

By-Elections tonight

Tonight, we have four by-elections, all in four formerly held Liberal ridings. In the case of Toronto Centre and Willowdale, I expect the Liberal to win those easily as well as Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay will both be strong additions to the opposition bench and hopefully government some day. Vancouver-Quadra will almost certainly go Liberal and in fact it would be a huge blow to the party if they lost here. Even if the Tories come within 10 points of winning here, I would say that is bad news. Joyce Murray, although less known is a very capable candidate and hopefully will be an MP soon. Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River is probably the most unpredictable. Considering that the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP have all won this riding since 1997, anyone of the three parties could win here. For the Conservatives, it wouldn't be a huge gain as they only lost by 67 votes, still any gains in seats is a good thing for them and a bad thing for the Liberals. An NDP win would finally put them back on the map in Saskatchewan, which despite being the birthplace of the party, they have been shut out for two straight elections. A Liberal win wouldn't be as big a boost as some may thing since the riding went Liberal last time around, still four wins by the Liberals, especially if strong ones would give a strong impression of momentum. As for bringing down the government, my view as stated earlier, is the Liberals should vote against any money bill or legislation that is a matter of confidence if they believe it is bad for the country and goes against their principles irrespective of their poll numbers. By the same token, they should support any legislation or money bill that is good for the country and comptable with their values regardless of their poll numbers. Voting based on poll numbers just feeds into the cynicism the Liberals only care about winning and nothing else and this is partly why they are in opposition. However, the Liberals need to quite abstaining and start showing up and voting either Yea or Nay on all confidence measures.

I'll have more later. In the mean time happy St. Patrick's Day to all.

Clinton Wins Ohio and Texas

Depending on which camp you talk to, you will hear two different stories. For Clinton, she won both Ohio and Texas, which is what she needed to do to stay in the game. At the same time because of the way delegates are divided up, Obama managed to maintain his delegate lead so despite three losses last night, he still is the front-runner. Clinton will still have a tough time catching Obama, however, at least she can claim some momentum. I suspect this might go all the way to the convention. While some worry this may divide the party, I am not sure this will totally be the case. The reality is most Democrats want the Republicans out so badly they will unite behind whoever wins, whereas McCain faces the difficulty of convincing the conservative base in the Republicans he shares their views, but at the same time not so far right he alienates the moderate vote.

In other news on the home front, but still in relation to the primaries, it appears the leaked memo of an Obama economic advisor saying Obama's position on NAFTA was just political posturing was leaked from the PMO's office. This is quite serious and I hope there is a thorough investigation. We should not interfere in other country's elections. If Ian Brodie was in any way involved, he needs to be fired immediately. While I would have a tough time imagining Harper doing this, not because he doesn't privately want McCain to win, but simply because trying to even appear like he is supporting the Republicans is politically stupid in a country where they are so unpopular. That being said, anything is possible. While the Liberals certainly have been undiplomatic in the past in terms of showing favoritism towards the Democrats, they have never tried to intervene directly in the process. As for how it will affect relations, it could put the chill on them, mind you I cannot see relations between a Liberal and Republican administration being any better. Unfortunately, it seems both parties are more interested in supporting the party closest to their ideology than realizing that whoever occupies the White House there will be issues we agree with them on and ones we do not. For one thing, the Democrats are to the right of the Liberals as any party who ran on a platform similiar to the Liberals would get clobbered much like the Liberals did on Monday in Alberta, which like the US, is more conservative than Canada as a whole. Likewise, even though Harper may be privately as right wing as the Republicans, he would not only lose the election, but would get clobbered if he governed that far to the right. The worry is that he will try to get as close as he realistically can. As for the impact, this no doubt hurt Obama, although I should note most polls showed Clinton a bit ahead, so what would have been a nail biter was a more comfortable win. In terms of the NAFTA positions, I suspect both are posturing much the way Chretien was in 1993 when he promised to review NAFTA, still if either do as president or even the Republicans as a matter of fact, try to re-open NAFTA, we need to make clear that it will not be a one way street. I would much rather they explain to the people the benefits of NAFTA and how the job losses in Ohio have nothing to do with it. Immigration is not very popular in the Republican party, yet McCain was willing to stand his ground on the issue despite being offside with most of his party. Still, I suspect NAFTA will be a dead issue by November.

On the home front, the war of words between the Ontario government and federal government is heating up. Besides being politically stupid, considering that it is next to impossible to win without doing well in Ontario, I think the federal government should respect the voters of Ontario and the decisions their government made. It is true they won't see eye to eye, but the federal government and provinces should learn to work together regardless of their ideological differences. In British Columbia, Gordon Campbell enjoyed strong relations with Chretien, Martin, and Harper, so it is possible to work well with people of different ideologies. And it has paid off in terms of what British Columbia has received. Its too bad that we don't have people like Campbell at both the federal and provincial level here in Ontario. Besides, this seems more of a case of Flaherty trying to settle old scores with his former provincial rivals. If this is the case, my advice to Flaherty is to step down from federal politics and try and run for the Ontario PCs, as they will likely need a new leader before 2011. The provincial opposition is suppose to be the one who goes after the provincial government's policies, not the federal government.

The final issue is C-10 which gives the government more power to censor films going against public policy. This is very worrisome as I am a staunch defender of freedom of expression. It is one thing to argue against ending tax credits altogether (and note we are talking about tax credits not subsidies for those who argue we shouldn't have to pay for things we don't like) but quite another to pick and choose. I support amending the bill so films that break the law won't get tax credits as originally intended, but those that are fully legal can qualify without having the government play the role of moral judge. It is especially troubling that Charles McVety is championing this. This guy is the Pat Robertson/Gerry Falwell of the North who seems all about imposing a theocracy and his views on everyone else. Even most right wingers find him too extreme, so I am quite troubled the government would even listen to a wacko like this and if this was by mistake, hopefully this serves as a warning of its dangers.

Clinton wins Ohio

Clinton has won Ohio, while Texas is still too close to call and considering it is almost midnight here in Toronto, I probably won't find out until tomorrow who wins. Regardless of the results in Texas, it is far from over, still Obama is ahead in the delegate count for now. I'll have more when the Texas results are complete.

McCain clinches the Republican nomination

Now its official, McCain will be the Republican nominee as he won the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination. His challenge now will be can he bring the conservative vote behind him without alienating the moderates who helped bring him this far. This will be no easy task, but not impossible. What is amazing about this is only six months ago, McCain was considered dead in the water, so talk about the comeback kid. If Clinton doesn't win the Democrat nomination, which looks more and more likely, that will mean neither of the two frontrunners of either party before the nominations (Guiliani for the Republicans and Clinton for the Democrats) won their nominations. Also Huckabee has thrown his support behind McCain and dropped out now that he has no chance of winning. It will be interesting to see if conservatives follow him or not. Anyways I will have more on the Democratic race later tonight when we find out who wins Ohio and Texas. The Republican race maybe over, but the Democrat race is far from over. So far Clinton has won Rhode Island and Obama has won Vermont, which is not a surprise. At least Clinton has ended Obama's winning streak, although neither state has a large enough delegates to make much of a difference, Ohio and Texas will make a far bigger difference and both are too close to call.

Alberta Election

No surprise that the Tories won another majority, but what many including myself expected to be one of their toughest fights ever, turned out to be a landslide win. The fact they increased their vote and gained seats was totally unexpected. I still haven't seen all the detail and it could very well be simply a result of a higher voter turnout this time around. Last time around, many traditional Tory voters stayed home, so I wonder if the fear of the Tories possibly not winning a majority brought many of these voters out. Also the economy has been doing well, which normally should mean the government gets re-elected, but that was certainly not the case in neighbouring Saskatchewan. The PCs did cede some ground in Calgary as expected, but it appears they kept their seat loss to the minimal, however a big surprise was their gains in Edmonton. I was not totally surprised of the PCs picking up one or two seats in Edmonton as despite Ed Stelmach's lower popularity than Ralph Klein there is a very strong Edmonton-Calgary rivalry in Alberta so it is not uncommon for the two cities to go in opposite directions, but the Tories actually dominating the city other than the core ridings surprised me. In fact looking at the maps, it appears only the core ridings of Calgary and Edmonton are painted red and orange while everything else is painted blue. This brings up the question as to what it will take to bring about change in Alberta. My argument as it has been all along is to win, one must be closest to the median voter and the reality is the average Albertan is centre-right much like the PCs. The NDP are obviously too left wing for Alberta, but even the Liberals who might be most in line with your median Ontario voter, are still too left leaning for Alberta. My advice to them is first to change their name to something such as the moderate party or centre party so as they can end this idea they are associated with the federal Liberals, who for good or ill are still widely disliked in Alberta. Also, they should adopt a centre-right platform much like the BC Liberals. But just as the Liberals and NDP may be too left leaning for Alberta, the Wild Rose Alliance is too right wing. While Albertans are more conservative than most Canadians, they are by no means the Texas of the North or Alabama of the North. Albertans still by and large share the same values as Canadians do elsewhere, they just have a different approach to achieving those goals. Some have argued this doesn't matter as Alberta is receiving so many newcomers who are more liberal than most Albertans, but I have never really bought into this. I generally believe that people after living in any location for a few years tend to develop views more or less in line with the majority of people where they live. It was often said most NDPer's in Alberta were recent newcomers from British Columbia and Saskatchewan, but after a couple election cycles, they would be voting Tory.

As for the parties, it goes without question that Kevin Taft needs to step down. Much like John Tory in Ontario, this was an election he should have gained seats, but instead lost them. While I cannot pinpoint the reasons, it is clear he will not take the party to victory. As for the PCs, they have a mandate to continue with their current approach, but should not take it as a blank cheque. As for who I would have voted, I cannot say since I am generally centre-right so I don't find the Alberta PCs too right wing for my tastes, but at the same time, I do believe 37 years in power is too long for anyone party.

Tomorrow I will have more on the Texas and Ohio primaries. If Obama wins both, then Clinton should seriously consider stepping aside as she really won't have much chance at winning, while if they each take one, Obama will still maintain front-runner status, but I expect she will stay on, while if Clinton takes both, then the race is competitive once again.