Alberta Election

No surprise that the Tories won another majority, but what many including myself expected to be one of their toughest fights ever, turned out to be a landslide win. The fact they increased their vote and gained seats was totally unexpected. I still haven't seen all the detail and it could very well be simply a result of a higher voter turnout this time around. Last time around, many traditional Tory voters stayed home, so I wonder if the fear of the Tories possibly not winning a majority brought many of these voters out. Also the economy has been doing well, which normally should mean the government gets re-elected, but that was certainly not the case in neighbouring Saskatchewan. The PCs did cede some ground in Calgary as expected, but it appears they kept their seat loss to the minimal, however a big surprise was their gains in Edmonton. I was not totally surprised of the PCs picking up one or two seats in Edmonton as despite Ed Stelmach's lower popularity than Ralph Klein there is a very strong Edmonton-Calgary rivalry in Alberta so it is not uncommon for the two cities to go in opposite directions, but the Tories actually dominating the city other than the core ridings surprised me. In fact looking at the maps, it appears only the core ridings of Calgary and Edmonton are painted red and orange while everything else is painted blue. This brings up the question as to what it will take to bring about change in Alberta. My argument as it has been all along is to win, one must be closest to the median voter and the reality is the average Albertan is centre-right much like the PCs. The NDP are obviously too left wing for Alberta, but even the Liberals who might be most in line with your median Ontario voter, are still too left leaning for Alberta. My advice to them is first to change their name to something such as the moderate party or centre party so as they can end this idea they are associated with the federal Liberals, who for good or ill are still widely disliked in Alberta. Also, they should adopt a centre-right platform much like the BC Liberals. But just as the Liberals and NDP may be too left leaning for Alberta, the Wild Rose Alliance is too right wing. While Albertans are more conservative than most Canadians, they are by no means the Texas of the North or Alabama of the North. Albertans still by and large share the same values as Canadians do elsewhere, they just have a different approach to achieving those goals. Some have argued this doesn't matter as Alberta is receiving so many newcomers who are more liberal than most Albertans, but I have never really bought into this. I generally believe that people after living in any location for a few years tend to develop views more or less in line with the majority of people where they live. It was often said most NDPer's in Alberta were recent newcomers from British Columbia and Saskatchewan, but after a couple election cycles, they would be voting Tory.

As for the parties, it goes without question that Kevin Taft needs to step down. Much like John Tory in Ontario, this was an election he should have gained seats, but instead lost them. While I cannot pinpoint the reasons, it is clear he will not take the party to victory. As for the PCs, they have a mandate to continue with their current approach, but should not take it as a blank cheque. As for who I would have voted, I cannot say since I am generally centre-right so I don't find the Alberta PCs too right wing for my tastes, but at the same time, I do believe 37 years in power is too long for anyone party.

Tomorrow I will have more on the Texas and Ohio primaries. If Obama wins both, then Clinton should seriously consider stepping aside as she really won't have much chance at winning, while if they each take one, Obama will still maintain front-runner status, but I expect she will stay on, while if Clinton takes both, then the race is competitive once again.