BC's Carbon Tax
As a former British Columbian myself and still a card carrying member of the BC Liberals (mine expires in 2009, however I will renew it if I ever return to British Columbia) I obviously take a great interest in what is happening. As someone who is both pro free market, but concerned about the environment, I believe BC's solution is the best of both worlds. This does not involve higher taxes overall or more regulation, but it gives British Columbians a strong incentive to reduce pollution and GHGs. By rewarding those who cut emissions and punishing those who increase them, this works in many ways like the market where higher prices cause people to buy less and lower prices cause people to buy more. Pollution is in economics what we call an externality, but since it is not priced, an optimal amount is not reached, but rather we have too much. What a carbon tax does, is it puts a price on pollution and then lets the market take care of the rest. This is the first in Canada and I hope others follow soon, although I don't count on Alberta following anytime soon and neither do I count on the federal government following suit as long as the Tories are in charge. However, much as California has been the leader on many issues in the United States, I believe British Columbia can be the same within Canada and on the environment it is. While most applaud this and indeed this will make it even more likely that in 2009 the BC Liberals will increase their seat count, there are some hard core conservatives who feel Campbell has abandoned them. I never really bought the idea he was a conservative ideologue and most close to him would argue he is actually more middle of the road than many think. Rather he is a premier that wants to see British Columbia succeed in all areas and will do what it takes to do so. In 2001, when he became premier, we had a large deficit and high taxes that were driving business away. He reduced taxes and cut spending in order to get our fiscal house in order and once again make BC an attractive place to do business. While he may have adopted many policies the Conservative ideologues liked such as tax cuts, privatization, spending cuts, and battles with public sector unions, his reasoning was he did what was necessary to turn BC around, whereas the conservative ideologues would support these policies whether they were appropriate for the time or not appropriate. In addition, Campbell has avoided federal bashing unlike most other premiers and past ones in British Columbia and this has paid off in terms of what BC has gotten. Although, it would be better if the federal government showed leadership, inaction at the federal level should not condemn the provinces to inaction. While attacking the federal government over their lack of action may be good politics, it will do little to deal with climate change. I am pleased with BC's leadership and would happily support anyone who showed similiar resolve at the federal level whatever party they ran on. Since Dion is still new and unknown, hopefully he can show similiar leadership on the environment (on the economy and taxes, Chretien and Martin took care of this). When it comes to the environment, it does not have to necessarily be a left vs. right thing. In fact the leaders in both Canada (Gordon Campbell) and United States (Arnold Schwartznegger) are both centre-right, they just are not ideologues who oppose doing anything about the environment because it goes against their ideology.
Here in Ontario, John Tory got 67% in a leadership review. Although I would have supported Tory for leader in 2004, I would have also voted in favour of having him step down as leader. I generally believe in giving leaders two shots as most don't succeed on their first try, but the fact he won fewer votes and fewer seats (if you include the re-distributed results) than Ernie Eves did in 2003, which was a bad result for the Ontario PCs, he clearly needs to go. Dalton McGuinty isn't widely hated, but isn't widely loved either so his ability to be re-elected or not depended heavily on his opponent and since his opponent ran a disastrous campaign, he would won handily. This is also not the first time Tory has shown bad political judgement, he showed the same thing when he managed Kim Campbell's disastrous 1993 campaign. The Ontario PCs needs someone who is as moderate as John Tory, but has better political judgement. If I had to suggest who I think would be the best choice, my choice would be Elizabeth Witmer who fits both of those criterias.
Here in Ontario, John Tory got 67% in a leadership review. Although I would have supported Tory for leader in 2004, I would have also voted in favour of having him step down as leader. I generally believe in giving leaders two shots as most don't succeed on their first try, but the fact he won fewer votes and fewer seats (if you include the re-distributed results) than Ernie Eves did in 2003, which was a bad result for the Ontario PCs, he clearly needs to go. Dalton McGuinty isn't widely hated, but isn't widely loved either so his ability to be re-elected or not depended heavily on his opponent and since his opponent ran a disastrous campaign, he would won handily. This is also not the first time Tory has shown bad political judgement, he showed the same thing when he managed Kim Campbell's disastrous 1993 campaign. The Ontario PCs needs someone who is as moderate as John Tory, but has better political judgement. If I had to suggest who I think would be the best choice, my choice would be Elizabeth Witmer who fits both of those criterias.
5 Comments:
As moderate as John Tory? Consider that there are 17 seats that are Conservative federally and Liberal provincially. All but a couple of them are held by strong social conservatives. If they pick a strong socon-populist, they might also be able to make gains in northern Ontario which a Red Tory wouldn't have a prayer of doing.
By contrast, outside the GTA, only one seat is held by the Liberals federally and PC's provincially - Witmer's. That makes her an aberration, not a trend that can be applied province-wide.
Anonymous - Actually there are four ridings that are held by Liberals federally and Tories provincially (Newmarket-Aurora, Halton, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Thornhill) although Halton did vote Tory last election.
I disagree with your idea of having a strong social conservative populist. You cannot win Ontario by only winning rural Ontario, you need to at least pick up mid sized cities and suburbs and these areas will only vote for a moderate. Lets remember, the Liberals, despite the sponsorship scandal, still won more seats in Ontario federally than the Tories and the Canadian Alliance who were unabashedly socially conservative got only 2 seats while Harper did better in 2006 when he ran on a more moderate platform, than 2004 when he ran on a more conservative one.
As for Northern Ontario - The Tories won't win there no matter who they choose. Parry Sound-Muskoka is a safe Tory riding and Nippissing is a swing riding, the rest are solid Liberal/NDP. The Tories will only win in Northern Ontario if they move to the left of the Liberals, which would be a dumb idea elsewhere. Upstate New York and Michigan are both more socially conservative than Ontario, yet even there the Republicans at best run even with the Democrats to further prove my point.
Bill Davis was a successful premier and a Red Tory.
"Upstate New York and Michigan are both more socially conservative than Ontario, yet even there the Republicans at best run even with the Democrats to further prove my point."
This is because the Democrats there are not that liberal. In Michigan, Bonior, Dingell, and Granholm attract a working class social conservative base. They are also fiercely pro-life and economic protectionist.
The irony is this base is now controlled by Dalton. Why has he insist on maintaining public funding of Catholic education, proposed the establishment of Family Day, and cry out to Flaherty for not aiding the rust belt of Canada. Fast forward to 2011 and you may have Christine Elliott saying the same thing to David McGuinty.
So the similarities between western New York, Michigan, and Ontario are not that much. A so-con can do well in Ontario, if he or she presses the right buttons. Particularly with the demise of Red Tory politics since the 1980s.
Mushroom - I think a populist can do well in Ontario outside the GTA, but I am not so sure about a social conservative. Maybe in Eastern, Central and parts of Southwestern Ontario, but considering the Tories won most of those seats federally in 2004 yet still did poorly in Ontario, I fail to see the benefit with this.
And in the case of Michigan, the working class cities have generally gone Democrat whether they were liberal or not. The support for social conservatism is more in the suburbs, smaller cities, and rural areas, especially Western Michigan. Never mind the conservative parts of the state generally have much higher voter turnouts than the more liberal parts, whereas in Ontario is irrelevant as we don't vote on a province wide scale, but rather riding by riding so even if voter turnout is lower in Liberal ridings and higher in conservative ones, the results are still the same, whereas in the US where it is popular vote by state, that is not the case.
Will Tory remain seatless? Who would step aside for him? He'd need to run in the GTA somewhere. Dufferin-Caledon would be a bad choice because he already "used" that riding before so he'd look like the ultimate carpet-bagger. Thornhill probably only went PC by a narrow margin because of the religious schools issue (it has the largest number of parochial schools in ON) and it would look really bad if he ran there after having abandoned the school funding plank. That leaves Halton, Newmarket-Aurora, Whitby-Oshawa or Burlington.
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