Election Predictions
Okay, now that a federal election looks imminent, I thought I would make a few predictions to see if I can continue my streak of correctly picking the winners. I predict a Liberal minority government will be produced. In 2004, I made seat guesses with several of my friends and while all of us were way off in terms of what the final numbers were, I was the only one to correctly predict the Liberals would be re-elected. After watching the Reform/Alliance parties always fall apart, I knew as soon as Stephen Harper became leader that the Liberals were going to bring up some of his past controversial statements and views and that when voters were faced with a choice between someone who was perceived as very right wing versus corrupt, but middle of the road, voters would go for the latter. In the US election, with the exception of Brandon Langhjelm who wanted Bush to win, but predicted Kerry, I was alone amongst everyone I talked to in wanting Kerry to win, but predicting a Bush win. All the others I know who thought Bush would be re-elected wanted him to be re-elected. As someone who has spent a fair bit of time in my Youth traveling through the Red States as well as talking to people who lived in them, I was well aware of the strong right wing tendencies so Bush's re-election was no surprise to me. The average American has a very limited knowledge of the outside World compared to Canadians as well as I was well aware of how powerful the Religious Right was so that is how I made my predictions. Finally I predicted the BC Liberals would win a reduced majority, even back when they were trailing in the polls since the BC Liberals were approximately at the same spot the former Social Credit was usually at going into an election, so I figured they would pick up a lot of the undecided votes (which aren't included in opinion polls).
My Predictions here (I will make riding by riding predictions as we get closer to the election, but rather than list each riding individually, I will list the ones which I think which will switch hands)
Atlantic Canada: Not much has changed since the last election and besides there were very few close races unlike further West, so the results will probably be similiar if not identical. The Liberals will hold the majority of seats, while the Tories and the NDP will win in their traditional strongholds, but not do particularly well in the whole region.
Quebec: With support for the Bloc Quebecois being at an all time high, I think it is almost a guarantee they will gain seats, probably over 60 this time around. The Liberals won't get completely wiped out as they are at least 8 ridings in West Montreal that will go Liberal no matter what. The only prediction I will make, is they won't win any seats they didn't win last time around. The Tories and NDP will likely be shut out of Quebec again.
Ontario: Conservative support is stuck in the low 30s and so no change over last time in share of the popular vote, but could change in terms of seats depending on the NDP/Liberal split. The Conservatives are strongest in rural ridings, especially Southwestern Ontario and Eastern Ontario, while the Liberals are strongest in the GTA and the NDP has their pockets here and there. If the NDP increases their share of the vote, the Liberals will not only lose seats to the NDP, but also to the Conservatives as you could see what happened in several BC and Saskatchewan ridings or like what happened in Oshawa where the Conservatives didn't do particularly well, but were able to come up the middle since most NDP votes are likely to come at the expense of the Liberals. Likewise if the NDP vote drops, the Liberals will go up and therefore the Conservatives will lose seats. At this point the Liberals will still win the majority of seats in Ontario, but will it be only around 60 seats under the worse case scenario or as high as 80 seats under the best case scenario. Likewise the Tories could win as few as 15 seats to as many as 40 seats. The NDP should get between 5-12 seats.
Manitoba: The Liberals will hold the three ridings they current have, while possibly pick up as many as three at the most (Churchill, Kildonan-St. Paul, and maybe but not likely, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia). The NDP certainly won't gain any seats, but other than Churchill, they won't lose any of the three Winnipeg seats. The Conservatives also won't gain any seats, but only risk possibly losing their two Winnipeg seats; they will easily hold the five rural seats.
Saskatchewan: The Conservatives may get 13 seats again, although considering Saskatchewan doesn't have a strong conservative history unlike neighbouring Alberta, I would be very surprised if they pull if off again, although I still expect them to win the majority of seats, probably 8-11 seats. Ralph Goodale will be re-elected, but if they are lucky they might pick up one more seat, but I don't expect them to do particularly well. After the embarassment of the NDP winning no seats in their birthplace, I think they will put a lot more resources into Saskatchewan to ensure they win at least one seat. At the same time their strength is largely limited to Regina and Saskatoon, which will make making Saskatchewan an NDP stronghold again very unlikely. I would say 3 seats at the most.
Alberta: Besides Anne McLellan's riding, I would be surprised if there are any other ridings that don't go Conservative. The only real battle is Anne McLellan's riding, which will be close. The NDP will be shut out of Alberta as usual.
British Columbia: The Conservatives will almost certainly lose seats even if they partially re-bound. I am guessing they will get between 10-16 seats, although considering how volatile BC is, I may be wrong here. Both the Liberals and NDP are likely to gain seats at the expense of the Conservatives, but I could also see them swapping a few seats (NDP gaining Victoria, Vancouver Centre, and Vancouver-Kingsway, while Liberals gaining Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New Westminster). Although I am pretty sure both will end up with more seats than they got last time around, but neither will likely win over half the seats in BC.
North: Liberals hold Yukon and Nunavut, while the Northwest Territories is a tight battle between the Liberals and NDP.
My Predictions here (I will make riding by riding predictions as we get closer to the election, but rather than list each riding individually, I will list the ones which I think which will switch hands)
Atlantic Canada: Not much has changed since the last election and besides there were very few close races unlike further West, so the results will probably be similiar if not identical. The Liberals will hold the majority of seats, while the Tories and the NDP will win in their traditional strongholds, but not do particularly well in the whole region.
Quebec: With support for the Bloc Quebecois being at an all time high, I think it is almost a guarantee they will gain seats, probably over 60 this time around. The Liberals won't get completely wiped out as they are at least 8 ridings in West Montreal that will go Liberal no matter what. The only prediction I will make, is they won't win any seats they didn't win last time around. The Tories and NDP will likely be shut out of Quebec again.
Ontario: Conservative support is stuck in the low 30s and so no change over last time in share of the popular vote, but could change in terms of seats depending on the NDP/Liberal split. The Conservatives are strongest in rural ridings, especially Southwestern Ontario and Eastern Ontario, while the Liberals are strongest in the GTA and the NDP has their pockets here and there. If the NDP increases their share of the vote, the Liberals will not only lose seats to the NDP, but also to the Conservatives as you could see what happened in several BC and Saskatchewan ridings or like what happened in Oshawa where the Conservatives didn't do particularly well, but were able to come up the middle since most NDP votes are likely to come at the expense of the Liberals. Likewise if the NDP vote drops, the Liberals will go up and therefore the Conservatives will lose seats. At this point the Liberals will still win the majority of seats in Ontario, but will it be only around 60 seats under the worse case scenario or as high as 80 seats under the best case scenario. Likewise the Tories could win as few as 15 seats to as many as 40 seats. The NDP should get between 5-12 seats.
Manitoba: The Liberals will hold the three ridings they current have, while possibly pick up as many as three at the most (Churchill, Kildonan-St. Paul, and maybe but not likely, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia). The NDP certainly won't gain any seats, but other than Churchill, they won't lose any of the three Winnipeg seats. The Conservatives also won't gain any seats, but only risk possibly losing their two Winnipeg seats; they will easily hold the five rural seats.
Saskatchewan: The Conservatives may get 13 seats again, although considering Saskatchewan doesn't have a strong conservative history unlike neighbouring Alberta, I would be very surprised if they pull if off again, although I still expect them to win the majority of seats, probably 8-11 seats. Ralph Goodale will be re-elected, but if they are lucky they might pick up one more seat, but I don't expect them to do particularly well. After the embarassment of the NDP winning no seats in their birthplace, I think they will put a lot more resources into Saskatchewan to ensure they win at least one seat. At the same time their strength is largely limited to Regina and Saskatoon, which will make making Saskatchewan an NDP stronghold again very unlikely. I would say 3 seats at the most.
Alberta: Besides Anne McLellan's riding, I would be surprised if there are any other ridings that don't go Conservative. The only real battle is Anne McLellan's riding, which will be close. The NDP will be shut out of Alberta as usual.
British Columbia: The Conservatives will almost certainly lose seats even if they partially re-bound. I am guessing they will get between 10-16 seats, although considering how volatile BC is, I may be wrong here. Both the Liberals and NDP are likely to gain seats at the expense of the Conservatives, but I could also see them swapping a few seats (NDP gaining Victoria, Vancouver Centre, and Vancouver-Kingsway, while Liberals gaining Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New Westminster). Although I am pretty sure both will end up with more seats than they got last time around, but neither will likely win over half the seats in BC.
North: Liberals hold Yukon and Nunavut, while the Northwest Territories is a tight battle between the Liberals and NDP.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 7:12 PM
4 Comments:
Hey Miles, thanks for the comment on my blog.
Some free advice if I may, I see that your blog is new, if you are a Liberal supporter you should sign it up at Liblogs (liblogs.freethought.ca/) and Progressive Bloggers (www.progressivebloggers.ca/) If you put your RSS feed there all your posts will show up there and it will get your blog exposure.
Hishighness - I am actually a Conservative in exile, rather than a Liberal blogger as I am a former Progressive Conservative who cannot stand Stephen Harper. Although you are right I would like more exposure and after next election you will probably see my under either lib bloggers or blogging Tories just depending on who replaces Harper.
Ok, my bad. Just tryin to help.
Let me tell you I respected the old PC Party. Obviously since I'm a Liberal I thought they were a little misguided, but I always at least had the feeling they wanted to do what was right for Canada, they just thought what was right for Canada was a little different than I did. However I don't get that feeling from Harper, or this Reform contingent in the new party, I feel like they want to reshape Canada in their perverse image. Starting by allowing the Church far too much power in the legislative process.
I fully agree with you hishighness. Even though I personally wasn't a fan of Liberal policies and certainly disliked the NDP policies, I felt all three parties were driven by good intentions. In the case of the Reform Party they had some individual members such as Chuck Cadman who were driven by good intentions, but they were in the minority within the party and over time most of them left. I get the sense of lot of them were right wing ideologues who wanted Canada to be exactly like the United States. No disrespect to the Americans, but were a different nation and I think it is silly for someone from either country to advocate being exactly like the other one. That doesn't mean we cannot take good ideas from the other one from time to time.
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