Harper's one year anniversary
A year ago on this day, the Liberals were defeated and the Conservatives were elected with one of the smallest minorities possible. This was in essence giving the Conservatives a cautious endorsement. It showed that Canadians were willing to give Stephen Harper a chance, but still many were quite nervous about what he would be like as prime-minister. A year later, the party is languishing in the polls now being tied or trailing the Liberals. While it is too early to write Stephen Harper's political obituary, the last year has generally seen momentum in favour of the Liberals and against the Tories. Now off course this could change.
As for my view on Stephen Harper's government, I give the government a C as its overall grade. They haven't done anything awful or absolutely devastated the country, but nor have the done anything to improve and make Canada better. Most of their policies, while not overly harmful do appear simplistic and shortsighted. In addition it is still difficult to know what a Stephen Harper majority would look like. He has certainly on foreign policy, crime issues, and funding programs for vulnerable Canadians shown signs of being a hard core conservative, but yet all the areas he has gone after are mostly minor ones that aren't likely to cost the Tories a lot of votes and he has yet to go after any major area that could be seriously damaging. Their environmental policy has no doubt been a disaster, but I am glad the party has finally come around, even if rather late. On foreign policy, I feel Harper made a mistake to align us more closely with the United States. I would like to see Canada-US relations improve, but with the Democrats now in control of congress and the public turning against neo-conservatism it is likely the next president will either be a Democrat or a more moderate Republican therefore we would be best to wait until 2008. On economic issues, the party has really done very little to improve our economy, but not much to harm it either. The GST cut was a dumb move, while taxing income trusts was the right decision, although I think a longer transition period should have been considered. The programs cut by the Tories in some cases made sense and others were ill-advised. On the Canadian Wheat Board, I support a dual marketing system, but the Tories have handled it in about the worse possible way and are pretty much ensuring it will fail. I also prefer Dion's teamwork approach over Harper's one man style approach. Now to be fair, there is very little talent in the Conservative benches which is not uncommon with parties who have been in opposition for a long-time. Only parties that are seen as the government in waiting well before the election are able to attract strong talent from outside politics and clearly this was not the case with the Conservatives. Being decisive is good, but not so much that you are unable to thoroughly think through each policy. I prefer a happy medium between a dither and decisive. This ensures policies are well thought out while at the same time there is a consistent and coherent plan.
As for what the year ahead faces, certainly most Canadians will go to the polls when you consider the two largest provinces are likely or will have provincial elections, but it is tough to say whether the government will fall or not. My guess is with the current poll numbers, they probably will fall, but we will have to wait and see. My advice to the Liberals would be to see the budget first and then vote accordingly, although I have a tough time believing the budget will be one the Liberals can support. Based on Harper's performance I believe he deserves to lose the next election, but still form a strong opposition as the government hasn't done a good job, but it hasn't done a horrible job either.
As for my view on Stephen Harper's government, I give the government a C as its overall grade. They haven't done anything awful or absolutely devastated the country, but nor have the done anything to improve and make Canada better. Most of their policies, while not overly harmful do appear simplistic and shortsighted. In addition it is still difficult to know what a Stephen Harper majority would look like. He has certainly on foreign policy, crime issues, and funding programs for vulnerable Canadians shown signs of being a hard core conservative, but yet all the areas he has gone after are mostly minor ones that aren't likely to cost the Tories a lot of votes and he has yet to go after any major area that could be seriously damaging. Their environmental policy has no doubt been a disaster, but I am glad the party has finally come around, even if rather late. On foreign policy, I feel Harper made a mistake to align us more closely with the United States. I would like to see Canada-US relations improve, but with the Democrats now in control of congress and the public turning against neo-conservatism it is likely the next president will either be a Democrat or a more moderate Republican therefore we would be best to wait until 2008. On economic issues, the party has really done very little to improve our economy, but not much to harm it either. The GST cut was a dumb move, while taxing income trusts was the right decision, although I think a longer transition period should have been considered. The programs cut by the Tories in some cases made sense and others were ill-advised. On the Canadian Wheat Board, I support a dual marketing system, but the Tories have handled it in about the worse possible way and are pretty much ensuring it will fail. I also prefer Dion's teamwork approach over Harper's one man style approach. Now to be fair, there is very little talent in the Conservative benches which is not uncommon with parties who have been in opposition for a long-time. Only parties that are seen as the government in waiting well before the election are able to attract strong talent from outside politics and clearly this was not the case with the Conservatives. Being decisive is good, but not so much that you are unable to thoroughly think through each policy. I prefer a happy medium between a dither and decisive. This ensures policies are well thought out while at the same time there is a consistent and coherent plan.
As for what the year ahead faces, certainly most Canadians will go to the polls when you consider the two largest provinces are likely or will have provincial elections, but it is tough to say whether the government will fall or not. My guess is with the current poll numbers, they probably will fall, but we will have to wait and see. My advice to the Liberals would be to see the budget first and then vote accordingly, although I have a tough time believing the budget will be one the Liberals can support. Based on Harper's performance I believe he deserves to lose the next election, but still form a strong opposition as the government hasn't done a good job, but it hasn't done a horrible job either.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 4:51 PM
5 Comments:
Pretty reasonable assessment Miles.
With such a slim minority, PMSH was still able to do what he campaigned on, (including 4 pilot projects for wait time guarantees, which deserve mention).
That would be quite an acheivement , even for a majority government. And PMSH did it with a minority, in less than 12 months.
I expect to see a Conservative budget with tax cuts, more money to the provinces and less meddeling in provincial affairs, and of course, Senate reform, some seat re-distribution would be warranted too.
This is the budget that will focus on First Nations, as a way to deal with child poverty, I hope.
Miles, do you think Cons and Libs could ever put down the swords long enough to do the strategic voting thing in Quebec, and send these separatists back to the fringes of under 15% ?
"With such a slim minority, PMSH was still able to do what he campaigned on..."
When will that happen? Seriously. Last time I checked, increasing military spending and transfer payments to Quebec by BILLIONS of dollars wasn't in his platform.
You must be talking about the 1% GST cut. That was pretty sweet... I s'pose.
Oh boy I didn't even eralize that it's the anniversary. Sadness.
He really hasn't rocked the boat that much. Sure the cutting of the SWC sucks but will that be an issue? Probably not. He has been awful for the environment but his messaging has been excellent. We can crticize on the income trust thing all we want but it was the right decision. That said, he did lie. I fear that all people will see is their GST cut. Which is BS btw. Those people should check income tax. Sigh. I dunno. That all said, I have faith in Dion :-)
Pretty reasonable assessment Miles.
With such a slim minority, PMSH was still able to do what he campaigned on, (including 4 pilot projects for wait time guarantees, which deserve mention).
That would be quite an acheivement , even for a majority government. And PMSH did it with a minority, in less than 12 months.
Harper did manage to achieve 4 of his 5 priorities, the problem is the one priority I actually supported they haven't achieved. Now in fairness, the health guarantee was the toughest one to achieve, still I would like to see more movement on this file.
I expect to see a Conservative budget with tax cuts, more money to the provinces and less meddeling in provincial affairs, and of course, Senate reform, some seat re-distribution would be warranted too.
This is the budget that will focus on First Nations, as a way to deal with child poverty, I hope.
I hope you are right on First Nations and Child Poverty. I want lower taxes and less government spending, but there are certain areas where government involvement is necessary and those are two where they are.
When will that happen? Seriously. Last time I checked, increasing military spending and transfer payments to Quebec by BILLIONS of dollars wasn't in his platform.
Actually it was in the platform, just not part of the five priorities. If one reads the platform carefully, while there are some things I support and some I don't, a common thread is noticed is each was aimed at wooing a different segment of potential conservative voters, i.e. retail politics at its finest.
He really hasn't rocked the boat that much. Sure the cutting of the SWC sucks but will that be an issue? Probably not. He has been awful for the environment but his messaging has been excellent. We can crticize on the income trust thing all we want but it was the right decision. That said, he did lie. I fear that all people will see is their GST cut. Which is BS btw. Those people should check income tax. Sigh. I dunno. That all said, I have faith in Dion :-)
Canadians do believe in compassion and fairness but unless they or someone they know is affected by the cuts it likely won't impact their vote. More importantly most Canadians don't even know what the SWC does so the reaction depends on who does a better job of spinning the decision. The Conservatives will argue it was a Liberal slush fund to fund advocacy groups that were about advancing the Liberal agenda rather than woman's rights, while the Liberals will argue it is an attack on both woman and the disadvantaged. Who the public will believe, I don't know. As for Income trust, I would say it is more case of incompetence than lying. Someone who had worked in the financial sector would have seen this coming, whereas I honestly believe Harper's expertise is more on the theory side of economics rather than the practical side of how businesses actually work. A smart politician would have promised not to tax existing trusts, but left the door open to taxing new trusts. And yes I too have faith in Dion. Last election, my vote for the Liberals was more a vote against Harper than for the Liberals, this coming election my vote will be a vote FOR the Liberals rather than against Harper. I am really looking forward to actually being able to vote for something rather than against.
What grades did you give the preceding Martin and Chretien governments?
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