Four news stories of the day

The first major story today is Danny Williams runs ads in national papers denouncing the Conservatives' changes to equalization. While I am not sure how effective it will be elsewhere, I do agree that Harper broke his promise since the changes made seem to contradict what he originally pledged. Although I live in Ontario where most people think Danny Williams is being unreasonable, I fully support the Atlantic Accord as it was written by Paul Martin in 2005. This is not about Atlantic Canada still getting equalization if the provinces some day become have provinces, rather this is providing Atlantic Canada with an opportunity to become have provinces. The sooner they can become have provinces, the better off we all are. By not clawing back non-renewable resources, this will allow them to develop new industries, which will sustain economic growth in the long-run and create other benefits. This is what was done for Alberta between 1957-1964, so why can't the same be done for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland & Labrador. Had Harper handled this right, it wouldn't hurt him anywhere, but this will likely hurt him in one of two ways: he caves in and gives both Newfoundland & Labrador and Nova Scotia what they want, which will hurt him in Ontario and Quebec or he ignores them and loses in those two provinces. As someone with family from Alberta who get shafted by the federal government under Pierre Trudeau's National Energy Program since Alberta didn't have enough seats to effect the outcome, I know what it is like to be shafted. The Liberals previous shafting of the West was wrong and Harper following the same strategy of shafting Atlantic Canada, which doesn't have enough seats to have a big impact, is also wrong. I also like the fact Rodney Macdonald is taking a more diplomatic approach while Williams is taking a more hardline approach. It is tough to know which has the best chance working, so by using different strategies there is a better chance of success than if they used the same one.

The second story is the results of the Barley plebiscite on the Canadian Wheat Board are now in. Not surprisingly, a majority voted against maintaining the single desk although support for abolishing the single desk was substantially higher in Alberta than either Saskatchewan or Manitoba, which is really not that surprising considering how Albertans tend to subscribe more to free markets and rugged individualism whereas the idea of collective responsibility and we are stronger united than divided has more reasonance in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. I do myself support ending the Wheat Board monopoly, but I totally condemn the handling of the plebiscite, which was an absolute farce. Since there were three questions, there should have been a run-off ballot if no question got over 50%. In addition it should have be run by an independent non-partisan agency such as Elections Canada to avoid either side trying to rig it. Finally the numbering of ballots, which can identify the voters is the worse fraud of it all. If the Conservatives want to end the monopoly on the basis it violates individual rights, fine, but then say so. If they want to do it through the democratic process, then do it fairly. My worry is Harper's bullying tactics here may ultimately backfire and put off any meaningful reforms for many years to come, whereas if done properly we could eliminate the monopoly in the near future without a major backlash.

Former BQ leader Michel Gauthier won't be running again, so it will be interesting to see how his riding plays out. He is from the Saguenay region which went solidly PQ provincially and the ADQ performed poorly so on the surface it might seem like a safe BQ riding. However, this was the only riding of the 65 ridings in Quebec, the Conservatives didn't win, that they came within 10% of winning. For whatever reason, the Saguenay is an anomaly in the sense that the Conservatives are competitive here while the ADQ isn't, despite the fact the ADQ is stronger in most parts of Quebec than the Conservatives.

The final topic is Indian Affairs minister Jim Prentice will not offer an apology for the residential schools. If the government had a policy of not offering any apologies due to fear of legal implications, then fine, but if they are willing to offer one for the Chinese Head Tax and Maher Arar then they should for the residential schools. I am almost feel sorry for Jim Prentice as I think he wants to help aboriginals, but he is dealing with a prime-minister who is hostile to aboriginals, not just here, but also through his other actions such as scrapping the Kelowna Accord. Clearly the Reform wing of the party is running the aboriginal affairs agenda as every Progressive Conservative premier and even former PM Brian Mulroney support the Kelowna Accord. I guess this is just more of Harper's vindictativeness towards those who aren't conservative or potential conservative voters. Although the Liberals did this too, I believe a PM should govern for all of Canada including those who didn't and won't vote for their party.

Post Mortem on Quebec Election

With the Quebec election results decided, now is time to look at what happened and the impact it will have. What happened was truly historic and could be a political re-alignment in Quebec. On the whole, the results were generally what I was hoping for. While my preference would have been a Liberal majority, if he had to choose which order I wanted the parties to finish in, my choice would have been Liberals first, ADQ as official opposition, and the PQ in third. One thing is certain about last night's results is another referendum won't being happening anytime soon, which is a good thing for Canada as a whole.

Liberal Party of Quebec

Certainly their failure to win a majority must be a huge disappointment and the fact it initially appeared Charest had lost his own seat was great cause for concern. In the end Charest did though hold onto his seat, but his minority government definitely will have some people calling for his ouster. I believe he should stay on as leader for now since a minority government can fall at any time and without a permanent leader in place, this can only mean bad news for the party. If he decides not to stay on as leader, he should resign when the summer recess is called and have the leadership convention before the National Assembly returns for the Fall sitting this way they will have a leader in place for the next election. I think he did a reasonably good job, but clearly many outside of Montreal felt their interests were being ignored and therefore he needs to do more to reach out to these people, so the Quebec Liberals can win a majority next time around.

Action Democratique du Quebec

If there was any winner last night, it was Mario Dumont since he took his party from a fringe party to official opposition and came very close to winning the election. Not only did he make a breakthrough in Quebec City as most expected, he even won in some of the outerlying suburbs of Montreal, which I don't think anyone expected to see happen. Even though I agree with his fiscal policies and believe Quebec needs a real shake up to move into the 21st century on economic policies, I could not vote for his party in good conscience for two reasons:
1. With the party at the beginning of the election just trying to gain official party status, there were few candidates capable of being cabinet ministers. Had he won, he would have faced the same scenario as Bob Rae did in 1990 in Ontario, which is have a caucus full of people not expecting to win their seats and unprepared for cabinet. Next time around, the party will likely attract stronger candidates as they now have the potential to form the next government.
2. The party's talk about reasonable accomodation with immigrants and the fact some members made xenophobic remarks and the party was willing to appeal to xenophobia is something I cannot accept. This may have greatly helped the party, but that still doesn't make it morally right. A true leader would stand up to xenophobia and try to stamp out rather than play to people's fears.

Still this at least might mean a slightly more conservative government, which although not a conservative, I do believe that from time to time, places need a shake-up when they drift too far to the left as was the case in Britain before Margaret Thatcher and Ontario before Mike Harris. Neither would be good leaders for Britain or Ontario today, but they were both the right ones for the time. Right now Quebec is in a simliar situation as those places were back then.

Parti Quebecois

I am obviously very pleased the PQ came in third. Rather than making the election about important issues such as taxes, economy, health care, environment, and education, the PQ made having another referendum the central issue and although many Quebecers may still vote Yes in another referendum, clearly having another one is not a top priority. Andre Boisclair made this his central theme and he lost big time and this is a good thing for all of Canada and all federalists. Although he hasn't resigned as leader yet, I highly doubt he will stick around for the next election

Federal Implications

For the Conservatives, on the whole this was good news since the PQ came in third and the ADQ who are ideologically closest to Harper made a huge breakthrough. If Harper could win a third of the seats in Quebec (that is the share the ADQ got), this would put him very close to a majority, so obviously he would be pleased with the results. Still one should not assume all ADQ votes will go Conservative. The BQ got 14 points higher than the PQ while the Quebec Liberals got 12 points higher than the federal Liberals, so it is probably not unreasonable to say many ADQ voters will go Bloc Quebecois federally and likewise many provincial Liberals will go Conservative federally, so one must be careful about drawing conclusions on how it will affect things federally.

For the Liberals, it was both good and bad news. The bad news is Dion won't be able to use his strength in terms of fighting separtism, which he would have been able to do had the PQ won. The good news is Dion is a strong federalists and last night was a clear victory for federalism. In addition the fact Harper's open federalism failed to deliver Charest a majority may make some Canadians wonder if the amount of pandering to Quebec was worth it.

For the Bloc Quebecois, this is definitely bad news as if they have similiar results to the PQ it could be serious trouble for them. The only good thing for them is Gilles Duceppe is a more popular leader than Andrew Boisclair, but thats about it.

As for an election, certainly Harper will try to do everything he can to trigger one, while trying to make sure the opposition takes the blame for his government falling, since if he calls one without falling on a confidence motion, he will likely get punished at the polls. By the same token, the Bloc Quebecois is probably not going to be keen about going to the polls soon, so really too early to tell.

Quebec Polls Closed Now

Polls are closed now in Quebec, lets see what happens.

I'll be back soon.

UPDATE:

Looking good so far, Lib 22, PQ 10, ADQ 6, and GRN 1, so lets so what will happen. Not enough votes though to call the election, but hopefully soon we can call it.

UPDATE 2:

CTV has projected a minority government and still too close too call. In fact the ADQ could come in third in votes and first in seats.

UPDATE 3:

CTV projects the Parti Quebecois will not win the election. Although my preference is for the Liberals, I would rather the ADQ win than PQ, still I hope the Liberals pull it off. I am also surprised how well the ADQ is doing. I sure hope this doesn't translate into a Conservative majority since if the Conservatives get these numbers in Quebec, it would be a majority. Still I think since Harper unlike Dumont, has a record, he won't get this good a result, but we shall see. This also reminds me of the Ontario 1990 election where the protest vote resulted in a government being elected that people didn't plan on electing.

UPDATE 4:

CTV Projects a Liberal minority. Well at least the Liberals win the election, although much closer than I hoped. Although I am happy about the fact the PQ appears to be headed for third place, which is a good thing. More tomorrow.

UPDATE 5:

CBC has projected Jean Charest will lose his seat. While he stays premier, without a seat this could be problematic. That being said Don Getty in 1989 in Alberta lost his seat and stayed premier so it can be done. I think for stability reasons, he should stay on as leader until the summer recess and then at that point decide whether to stay on.

UPDATE 6:

Charest is now only trailing by 110 votes, so he might hang on with approximately 20 polls to go. Andre Boisclair is now speaking. I wonder if he will resign as leader on the spot.

UPDATE 7:

My mistake, Jean Charest has been re-elected, so he will have a seat in the National Assembly. Talk about making the wrong call on such a critical candidate.

Quebec Election What to Expect

With less than an hour to go before the polls close in Quebec, I thought I would give my input. Barring some last minute shift, it looks like a near certainty Quebec will have its first minority government in over 100 years. The question is which will it be. We also could be looking at another historical first: the party that wins comes in third place in terms of votes or likewise the party with the most votes comes in third in terms of seats. Any of the three parties could potentially form a minority government so I'll give my view on each scenario below.

Liberal Minority

This is my preferred option as for all his flaws, I believe Jean Charest is the best choice of the three since he has experience, is a federalist, and is fiscally conservative but socially progressive. Recent polls show him in the lead, but due to the fact he piles up huge majorities amongst non-Francophones and is in third amongst Francophones, there is no guarantee he will win. If he does win, I suspect it will be a relatively stable minority as the Liberals are more likely to get support from the ADQ than the PQ would. I don't seeing it helping Harper a lot for the simple reason he is pretty close to his ceiling, so although I think it might have helped back in January when the Tories were in the low 30s, I doubt it will push Harper up into the mid 40s as he hopes. It will also mean the end of Andre Boisclair as PQ leader since at the time he took over as leader, all polls suggested he would win a landslide majority, while now there is a real possibility of him losing.

PQ minority

This is still very much a possibility, especially considering that their vote is the least concentrated of the three parties so they don't necessarily need to come in first place in terms of the popular vote to win the election. However, a minority PQ government would pretty much kill the chances of another referendum as they need to pass the bill in the National Assembly, which neither the Liberals or ADQ will support. This will also be the end of Charest's career so the PQ government will probably last a year as the Liberals choose a new leader, but after that, they could have trouble lasting any longer. This could hurt Harper in the short-term, but since there will be no referendum, it won't hurt him as much as if the PQ won a majority. As for whether the Bloc Quebecois withdraws their support for the budget or not, it is tough to say. Although this would give them every reason to do so, I suspect they will only do it if their numbers improve. All three times they have supported the government have been less out of principle and more out of fear they would lose seats if an election were called.

ADQ minority

This is the least likely scenario of the three, but the fact we are even bringing the idea up is remarkable. What was no more than a fringe party is about to elect several more MNAs and play a major role in the next parliament. This will dramatically alter the Quebec political scene just as the Conservative breakthrough last January did. Some on the right may cheer about the rise of the right in Quebec, but I would argue they aren't any more right wingers than ten years ago, they simply were voting for other parties then. In the past Quebec elections have been fought along separtist/federalist lines as opposed to left/right lines and it was only when the automonists (most Conservative and ADQ supporters in Quebec fall under this group) found the two main parties so unattractive than they started looking at other options, and thus the rise in the ADQ and Conservatives.

Anyways I will be back once the winner is called and then probaby tomorrow when the results are finalized.

Budgets and Budgets and other news

This week was a big week not just because of the federal budget, but also a few provincial budgets. The Saskatchewan budget appeared to be a last ditch attempt by the NDP to shore up the flagging support. In Nova Scotia the government opted to take the new equalization plan, which will give the province more money in the short-term, but likely wouldn't help in the long-term. While I believe keeping the Atlantic Accord option is the best long-term solution, it will be another six years at least before any of the positive benefits show up and there will be another election between then and hopefully the Atlantic Accord will be fully re-instated. Considering how mistake prone Harper is, my gut instinct says he won't be PM in six years, so I say to all Nova Scotians, be patient. Work hard to defeat Harper next election and you have a good chance at getting a better deal. I would also say the same for Newfoundland & Labrador. It will be interesting to see what the regional polls here say since although the budget seems to have helped the Conservatives federally, I suspect it has hurt them there, although it is too early to tell how bad the damage will be for the Conservatives. Still as someone who values all members of confederation, no party should try it alienate a certain region. If Harper simply didn't understand how angry this would make Atlantic Canadians, fair enough, but he should do the right thing and re-instate the Atlantic Accord. I am not for either province staying on equalization permanately, in fact the sooner we can get them off, the better and that is why I support the Atlantic Accord.

Ontario also delivered its budget, which focused heavily on poverty, I suspect in an effort to woo back soft NDP votes. I am not sure this is the wisest strategy since as I've said elsewhere it is the 905 belt here in Ontario and the middle class who determine the winner so moving to the left only leaves a greater opening for the Ontario PCs. I do support some of the measures since we do need to tackle poverty, but I do believe some modest income tax cuts as well as greater efforts to achieve a balanced budget sooner should have been done. I do not however, support raising the minimum wage to $10.25/hour by 2010, unless other provinces raise their minimum wage to similiar levels. While I understand how difficult it is to live on $10/hour, unfortunately many of these people would not be hired at this wage, so the solution is to develop strategies so people have better skills so they can get higher paying jobs. In addition if our minimum wage is out of whack with other provinces, we could lose business to them. Another possibility is firms will not layoff employees, but will pass on the wage increases in higher prices thus negating the positive effects of a wage increase. One solution I think that should be explored though is having a higher minimum wage in the GTA than elsewhere in Ontario as the cost of living is significantly higher in Toronto than in Rural Ontario so $10/hour means a much lower standard of living if you live in Toronto than elsewhere in Ontario.

In other news, the Tories appear to be approaching majority territory. While I am not too happy about the polls, I am not terribly worried as I've seen poll results fluctuate frequently, so this is only a current snapshot of things, not a prediction or the actual outcome. The only consistency seems to be neither party can easily crack the 40% and both parties generally stay above 30% so its probably a good guess both parties will get between 30-40% next election. Off course in terms of seat breakdown, this could mean anything from the Liberals winning a stronger minority than in 2004 to a small Tory majority, so for Liberals nervous, I say relax, stay focused on the goal and don't panic. We should be concerned, but not give up.

Tom Wappel is retiring and all I can say is good riddance. This guy was to the right of even most Conservative MPs and considering his riding is a safe Liberal riding, I suspect he was only a Liberal of convenience. I just wish he crossed the floor to the Tories so he could get the good ass whopping he deserves. I am all for diversity of views within a party but there is a big difference between disagreeing with the party on individual issues versus disagreeing with their basic principles and philosophy. I fall under the former, Tom Wappel falls under the latter.

Stockwell Day is under investigation for possible ethics breaches back in 2000 as Canadian Alliance leader. I've thought this guy along with Vic Toews and Jason Kenney was too right wing to be a cabinet minister, so I hope this will finally be a way to sack him from cabinet, but I wouldn't count on it.

Further Reaction to the Budget

After looking more carefully at the budget, reading the analysis, and the fine details, I am now downgrading it to C- from a B-. Otherwise this was a budget that sounded good on the surface, but below was visionless and seemed more about winning the next election than promoting any vision. I am not doing this as a blind Liberal partisan as I thought Paul Martin's deal with Jack Layton was a bad one. I am doing this because there for a number of reasons for it:

1. Spending increases could cause inflation to rise if continued. Spending increases should not exceed inflation + economic growth, so the budget fails here.

2. There were no across the board tax cuts, instead tax cuts designed at certain groups who are potential conservative voters. I believe individuals should have more money in their pocket and be able to choose how to spend it, therefore while some tax credits to encourage buying greener cars might make sense, an across the board income tax cut is the best solution. It is too bad the party that once championed tax cuts has abandoned this.

3. Spending should be targeted to areas where it is lacking, not to where it will gain votes. Areas such as aboriginals, Post-Secondary Education, and Social Housing should have gotten more, while less in more provincial transfers and vote buying schemes for suburban voters.

4. Equalization should be based on what share of the population one province has. Whatever percentage of the population one has, that is what percentage of transfers they should get. No wonder half of the provinces are not happy. In addition raising expectations so high is partly why some premiers are so enraged. Had Harper like Martin in the 90s not promised anything on the fiscal imbalance (which I don't believe exists), I suspect the provinces would be making less noise.

Now I don't think this budget will likely have too big an impact on the party in the long-run. It will anger some and please others, but since there will be no election over it, I suspect subsequent events will affect the Tory fortunes more.

The only impacts I really see it having is it will increase Jean Charest's chances of re-election, which is a plus for Harper, but if Williams follows through on his promise to campaign against the Tories (which I believe he will) it will making holding the three seats in Newfoundland & Labrador quite a bit more challenging, although not impossible. That being said as angry as I would be if I were a Newfie at the budget, I am not sure that having no government MPs would benefit the province as long as Harper is PM.

In other news Joe Comuzzi was expelled from the Liberal caucus for intending to voting with the Tories on the budget. While I support free votes on most issues, on confidence issues, all members of the party should be required to support the party position or be kicked out. I am sure any leader would have done this if one of their MPs planned to do this. I am also pleased Stephane Dion spoke to Joe Comuzzi to confirm he did plan to indeed do this rather than just go media reports.

Budget: My reaction

Now that the budget has come down I will give my opinion. Unlike some other bloggers, I will try not to be overly partisan, but rather give a fair assessment. As Garth Turner gave on his blog, a B-, that is what I would give this budget, so while an improvement over the last budget, it still could be much better. It certainly hit all the right notes for winning the next election for the Tories, but it seemed to have too much of a short-term focus and lacked a long-term one. However, to be fair to the Tories, no forward looking budget has every come in a minority government or an election year. Instead election budgets are always about trying to win the next election. Some Liberals and Dippers are condemning it for not spending enough, but while I agree we should spend more on Post-Secondary Education, Health Care, and Social Housing, overall spending increases are too large in my view. We need to re-allocate from low priorities to higher priorities, but despite being awash in cash, that would disappear if we fell into a recession and if we continue to let spending grow unhindered, we could risk a deficit again. In addition bigger government may be popular with some, but it generally doesn't work. Also elections are not won by appealing to the wealthy or rural voters, nor are they won by appealing to the poor and people living in the urban cores. Rather the middle class suburban vote is where elections are won and lost and this budget did a good job of appealing to this group. On the whole most of the things in the budget were positive and almost all the negatives were not what was in the budget, but rather what was not in the budget. Some fiscal conservatives are complaining this budget abandons conservatism, but I would argue that since the government was acting like a truly conservative government up until January, the change to a more liberal budget has more to do with the fact Canadians are still not fully comfortable with conservatism as opposed to Harper being a liberal convert. In addition even the most conservative leaders such as Ralph Klein and Mike Harris presented liberal budgets during election years, so groups like the Canadian Taxpayer's Federation should realize a conservative budget will not come in a year where there is a potential for an election.

The child tax benefit, environmental funding, increased equalization, and minor tax cuts are all positives and going in the right direction. Sure many will say it wasn't enough, but all governments have limitations. Its biggest weakness was to spend more on R&D (which Canada has on the lowest amongst the G-8 Countries) and lack of income tax cuts as well as spending on Post-Secondary Education. These are key investments if we want to succeed in the future. I also think the government should do a full review of all programs and cut inefficient ones as we simply cannot do everything. Budgets should be designed to be deficit proof regardless of how the economy is doing. We are only awash in cash because of the strong economy, but this could change in the next few years.

The NDP obviously will vote against it and as I said earlier I don't think you could create a budget that would be acceptable to supporters of both. Already many Tories are complaining it abandons fiscal conservatism too much, so I think the idea of getting a budget both the NDP and Tories could support should be dropped.

The Liberals will also vote against it and I felt their reasoning was generally reasonably good. I do disagree with the party on childcare as I am not sure that creating a large program and all the cost it entails is the right way to go, but on competitive taxes, Post-Secondary Education, and the environment I fully agree with the Liberals. In addition, as I alluded to in my earlier blog, the Liberals really had no choice but to vote against it. Even if it was a budget they privately liked, voting for it would only benefit the Tories as it would say the two parties are essentially the same, so people would go for who is known than who isn't. Voting against it, whatever its pitfalls, was the right choice.

The Bloc Quebecois has decided to support it, which is a bit of a surprise for me, but I guess they realized an election would hurt them more than anyone else. After just coming out of a provincial election, I don't think they are keen on another election. In addition they are fighting a two-front battle with the Conservatives being their main opponents in Quebec City and Rural Quebec, while the Liberals in the Greater Montreal Area.

The fact we are having no election is good news for us Liberals as this gives Dion time to make himself more known to Canadians, brush up on his debating skills, as well as the longer the government is in power, the more baggage they will accumulate. It also gives me a little break from politics this spring, since as I new resident of Toronto, there are other things I would rather be doing than campaigning. On a final note, as bad as our poll numbers may be, I think the fair of us returning to power has caused the Tories to take a far more centrist approach than they were prior to Christmas and this a good thing. At the end of the day, I care less about who is making the decisions than what they are, so if the threat of the Liberals returning to power pushes Harper towards the middle, that is fine by me. Lets just make sure he doesn't get too far ahead in the polls or else he will revert to his right wing tactics, which I don't want to see.

As a side note, Elizabeth May will be taking on Peter MacKay. This will no doubt be a tough riding to win as Peter MacKay is reasonably popular here and in addition while they are pockets that are left wing such as Antigonish, the riding on the whole is still fairly conservative like most rural ridings. Even though her chances of winning the seat are close to nil, taking on MacKay will at least bring a higher profile to her and could help them elsewhere. In addition, although a Liberal, I generally think MacKay is a decent person and would make a good PM. It is more his current leader Stephen Harper and the ex-Reformers who I have a major beef with.

Prediction on the Budget: An election will happen that is in the interest of no party

On Monday, the federal budget will be brought down and then voted on shortly after. If it fails, the government falls and an election will likely follow. While the governor general could technically ask Stephane Dion to form the government, thus avoiding an election, I would hope Dion would refuse since I worry that if he accepted this might backfire in the next election, so better he get a mandate from the electorate. Now some will say, it is in no party's interest to have an election and that is true, but that doesn't mean there won't be one.

The Conservatives have made gains over the past month or so, but those gains still put the Conservatives well short of a majority government, so if it is going to result in another minority government, it seems pointless. While Harper could go to the GG and ask for an election even if the budget passes, unless he is a really dumb strategist, I don't think he will do that since he would likely pay at the polls. So my prediction is the Conservatives will present a budget they think it popular with the public or at least the 40% who are open to voting Conservative so if the budget fails, they have one they can run on.

The Liberals were in the lead in January, but have since fallen behind, so one may ask why would they be silly enough to vote against the budget. I would argue it would be even sillier strategically to vote for the budget. The reason for this is, if we vote for the budget, this will essentially say to the public our two parties aren't very different, so if the two parties aren't very different, the public is likely to go Conservative, since whatever they may think of Stephen Harper, he is at least a known quantity. If we want to defeat the current government, we have to make the argument we have a different vision and a better one and that is how we can win. So even though our numbers are not ideal, strategically we should vote against the budget.

The NDP has fallen since last election and would likely lose seats if there was an election today, so one might ask, why would they want to vote against the budget. Again, voting for it would cause them more harm down the road than going to an election now. The demographic they appeal to is vastly different than the ones the Conservatives appeal to and due to the ideological differences, it would be next to impossible to create a budget that would be acceptable to both parties. One of the parties would have to completely surrender their principles for both of them to support the budget. So while the NDP may lose seats either way, they would lose more by voting for the budget than against it.

Finally that leaves us with the Bloc Quebecois and they are the one party that could potentially prevent the government from falling. They have set a definite price on how much must be transferred to Quebec to fix the fiscal imbalance and the price tag they set will be very difficult to meet and whatever attraction there is in meeting it, the Conservatives shouldn't even try to. If the Conservatives don't meet it, then they really have no choice but to vote against the budget. The only way out for them though is if the Parti Quebecois wins on March 26th, they can claim their ultimate goal is to separate from Canada and since they are within months of achieving this, having an election is pointless and so they will wait until after the referendum before bringing the government down.

So in essence, while a federal election doesn't seem to be in anybody's interest, it is pretty much inevitable if each party is thinking what is best for them strategically when it comes time to vote on the budget.

SCC ruling on Blackout

Yesterday, the Supreme Court of Canada upheld the blackout law, which means on election day one cannot transmit results from one part of the country where the polls are open to where they are closed. Obviously as a blogger this is a disappointment, that being said the SCC was put in a tough position since they could only uphold or stike down the law, not re-write some compromise, which probably explains why it split 5-4.

In this day and age with the internet, I don't think it is realistic to ban the transmission of results from one part of the country to another. The cost of going after every blogger who breaks the rule is too expensive and never mind one in the United States or some foreign country can get around it completely. At the same token I don't believe it is fair for people in Central Canada and Western Canada to be influenced by early results in Atlantic Canada in how they vote. So a better solution is to do one of three things:
1. Hold off on the count until all polls are closed nationwide
2. Stagger voting hours so polls open and close at the same time in all parts of the country
3. Require scrutineers to swear an oath that they won't release the results until all polls close and also Elections Canada would be prohibited from releasing the results of the count until all polls close. This means only the election officials, Elections Canada, and the scrutineers would know the results.

On election day, I will follow the rules and not broadcast any early results although I do plan to find out the results from other sources myself. Considering how difficult it will be to police this, the government should consider making one of the above changes, thereby repealing this outdated law, but at the same time not allowing voters in BC to be influenced by results elsewhere.

Dion's economic and crime plan

Over the last little while much has been focused on Dion's failings and it has been argued that he is pulling the party too far from the centre. I disagree with such characterization, but I realize politics is more about perception than reality so if Harper is perceived as being more mainstream and closer to the centre than Dion, he will be re-elected. Environmental sustainability and social justice are important topics, but we cannot win on those alone. Rather we need to realize most Canadians are neither right wing nor left wing, but support ideas on both sides of the spectrum, so our goal should be to take the good ideas on each side and avoid the bad ones. In addition it is the middle class suburban vote is who will determine the winner of the next election, not the rural or the downtown vote. In Ontario, Rural Ontario is likely to stay predomiantely conservative as will the BC Interior. Likewise both Toronto and Vancouver proper are off limits for the Conservatives and should stay predominately Liberal with a few NDP wins possible. Where the election will be decided is the 905 belt here in Ontario and the Lower Mainland suburbs in BC. These areas are neither strongly Liberal or Conservative and could go either way. They like lower taxes, safer communities, a cleaner environment, as well as a strong health care system.

This week Dion hit on two themes that will likely reasonate in those areas and may bring back some of the voters we have been losing here. First he spoke about the need to make sure our taxes are competitive. While we need taxes to fund our social programs, our taxes must also be internationally competitive, which is why I support income tax cuts over GST cuts. In fact most economists on both the left and right agree that income tax cuts are preferable to GST cuts and I am glad to see Dion will implement those if he forms government.

The second issue is law and order. While the lock'em style justice has been proven ineffective, Canadians want safe communities and those seen as soft on crime will pay at the polls. That is why I am glad to see Dion come out with a reasonable law and order package that isn't based on solely locking them up, but also understands serious and repeat offenders should face longer jail times. He also recognized the importance of having more police officers since locking people up after they commit the crimes doesn't do any good, rather we need to prevent the crimes from happening and studies have shown that a greater visibility of police leads to less crimes being committed.

Hopefully these issues will be mentioned during the election so we can counter any conservative claims we are too left wing. If we can convince Canadians we are a centrist mainstream party, we can win the next election, so hopefully Dion will continue to promote his balanced vision.