Quebec Election What to Expect

With less than an hour to go before the polls close in Quebec, I thought I would give my input. Barring some last minute shift, it looks like a near certainty Quebec will have its first minority government in over 100 years. The question is which will it be. We also could be looking at another historical first: the party that wins comes in third place in terms of votes or likewise the party with the most votes comes in third in terms of seats. Any of the three parties could potentially form a minority government so I'll give my view on each scenario below.

Liberal Minority

This is my preferred option as for all his flaws, I believe Jean Charest is the best choice of the three since he has experience, is a federalist, and is fiscally conservative but socially progressive. Recent polls show him in the lead, but due to the fact he piles up huge majorities amongst non-Francophones and is in third amongst Francophones, there is no guarantee he will win. If he does win, I suspect it will be a relatively stable minority as the Liberals are more likely to get support from the ADQ than the PQ would. I don't seeing it helping Harper a lot for the simple reason he is pretty close to his ceiling, so although I think it might have helped back in January when the Tories were in the low 30s, I doubt it will push Harper up into the mid 40s as he hopes. It will also mean the end of Andre Boisclair as PQ leader since at the time he took over as leader, all polls suggested he would win a landslide majority, while now there is a real possibility of him losing.

PQ minority

This is still very much a possibility, especially considering that their vote is the least concentrated of the three parties so they don't necessarily need to come in first place in terms of the popular vote to win the election. However, a minority PQ government would pretty much kill the chances of another referendum as they need to pass the bill in the National Assembly, which neither the Liberals or ADQ will support. This will also be the end of Charest's career so the PQ government will probably last a year as the Liberals choose a new leader, but after that, they could have trouble lasting any longer. This could hurt Harper in the short-term, but since there will be no referendum, it won't hurt him as much as if the PQ won a majority. As for whether the Bloc Quebecois withdraws their support for the budget or not, it is tough to say. Although this would give them every reason to do so, I suspect they will only do it if their numbers improve. All three times they have supported the government have been less out of principle and more out of fear they would lose seats if an election were called.

ADQ minority

This is the least likely scenario of the three, but the fact we are even bringing the idea up is remarkable. What was no more than a fringe party is about to elect several more MNAs and play a major role in the next parliament. This will dramatically alter the Quebec political scene just as the Conservative breakthrough last January did. Some on the right may cheer about the rise of the right in Quebec, but I would argue they aren't any more right wingers than ten years ago, they simply were voting for other parties then. In the past Quebec elections have been fought along separtist/federalist lines as opposed to left/right lines and it was only when the automonists (most Conservative and ADQ supporters in Quebec fall under this group) found the two main parties so unattractive than they started looking at other options, and thus the rise in the ADQ and Conservatives.

Anyways I will be back once the winner is called and then probaby tomorrow when the results are finalized.