Prediction on the Budget: An election will happen that is in the interest of no party
On Monday, the federal budget will be brought down and then voted on shortly after. If it fails, the government falls and an election will likely follow. While the governor general could technically ask Stephane Dion to form the government, thus avoiding an election, I would hope Dion would refuse since I worry that if he accepted this might backfire in the next election, so better he get a mandate from the electorate. Now some will say, it is in no party's interest to have an election and that is true, but that doesn't mean there won't be one.
The Conservatives have made gains over the past month or so, but those gains still put the Conservatives well short of a majority government, so if it is going to result in another minority government, it seems pointless. While Harper could go to the GG and ask for an election even if the budget passes, unless he is a really dumb strategist, I don't think he will do that since he would likely pay at the polls. So my prediction is the Conservatives will present a budget they think it popular with the public or at least the 40% who are open to voting Conservative so if the budget fails, they have one they can run on.
The Liberals were in the lead in January, but have since fallen behind, so one may ask why would they be silly enough to vote against the budget. I would argue it would be even sillier strategically to vote for the budget. The reason for this is, if we vote for the budget, this will essentially say to the public our two parties aren't very different, so if the two parties aren't very different, the public is likely to go Conservative, since whatever they may think of Stephen Harper, he is at least a known quantity. If we want to defeat the current government, we have to make the argument we have a different vision and a better one and that is how we can win. So even though our numbers are not ideal, strategically we should vote against the budget.
The NDP has fallen since last election and would likely lose seats if there was an election today, so one might ask, why would they want to vote against the budget. Again, voting for it would cause them more harm down the road than going to an election now. The demographic they appeal to is vastly different than the ones the Conservatives appeal to and due to the ideological differences, it would be next to impossible to create a budget that would be acceptable to both parties. One of the parties would have to completely surrender their principles for both of them to support the budget. So while the NDP may lose seats either way, they would lose more by voting for the budget than against it.
Finally that leaves us with the Bloc Quebecois and they are the one party that could potentially prevent the government from falling. They have set a definite price on how much must be transferred to Quebec to fix the fiscal imbalance and the price tag they set will be very difficult to meet and whatever attraction there is in meeting it, the Conservatives shouldn't even try to. If the Conservatives don't meet it, then they really have no choice but to vote against the budget. The only way out for them though is if the Parti Quebecois wins on March 26th, they can claim their ultimate goal is to separate from Canada and since they are within months of achieving this, having an election is pointless and so they will wait until after the referendum before bringing the government down.
So in essence, while a federal election doesn't seem to be in anybody's interest, it is pretty much inevitable if each party is thinking what is best for them strategically when it comes time to vote on the budget.
The Conservatives have made gains over the past month or so, but those gains still put the Conservatives well short of a majority government, so if it is going to result in another minority government, it seems pointless. While Harper could go to the GG and ask for an election even if the budget passes, unless he is a really dumb strategist, I don't think he will do that since he would likely pay at the polls. So my prediction is the Conservatives will present a budget they think it popular with the public or at least the 40% who are open to voting Conservative so if the budget fails, they have one they can run on.
The Liberals were in the lead in January, but have since fallen behind, so one may ask why would they be silly enough to vote against the budget. I would argue it would be even sillier strategically to vote for the budget. The reason for this is, if we vote for the budget, this will essentially say to the public our two parties aren't very different, so if the two parties aren't very different, the public is likely to go Conservative, since whatever they may think of Stephen Harper, he is at least a known quantity. If we want to defeat the current government, we have to make the argument we have a different vision and a better one and that is how we can win. So even though our numbers are not ideal, strategically we should vote against the budget.
The NDP has fallen since last election and would likely lose seats if there was an election today, so one might ask, why would they want to vote against the budget. Again, voting for it would cause them more harm down the road than going to an election now. The demographic they appeal to is vastly different than the ones the Conservatives appeal to and due to the ideological differences, it would be next to impossible to create a budget that would be acceptable to both parties. One of the parties would have to completely surrender their principles for both of them to support the budget. So while the NDP may lose seats either way, they would lose more by voting for the budget than against it.
Finally that leaves us with the Bloc Quebecois and they are the one party that could potentially prevent the government from falling. They have set a definite price on how much must be transferred to Quebec to fix the fiscal imbalance and the price tag they set will be very difficult to meet and whatever attraction there is in meeting it, the Conservatives shouldn't even try to. If the Conservatives don't meet it, then they really have no choice but to vote against the budget. The only way out for them though is if the Parti Quebecois wins on March 26th, they can claim their ultimate goal is to separate from Canada and since they are within months of achieving this, having an election is pointless and so they will wait until after the referendum before bringing the government down.
So in essence, while a federal election doesn't seem to be in anybody's interest, it is pretty much inevitable if each party is thinking what is best for them strategically when it comes time to vote on the budget.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 4:27 PM
4 Comments:
I agree with you Miles there will be an election this Spring but it will not be called this week.
My guess is the Liberals will vote for the budget next week to send it to committee.
They can use the line of argument that that they do not agree with the budget but they will attempt to work with Mr. Harper to make it more acceptable.
Of course at report stage which will happen in late-April the budget will be defeated and we will be in a campaign.
Such a strategy will reduce the impact of the budget as they tend to have short shelf lives. As well, it will give the Liberals more time to get their act together.
Ottlib - That is one possibility. Another is the Budget Implementation act, which comes in May or June, which could be defeated. I think the bounce from the budget will likely be short lived, although I think a fall election would be the best for the Liberals as an unusually hot summer and more deaths in Afghanistan will hurt the Tories. Likewise Dion can get out on the barbecue circuit and make himself more known to Canadians.
I also did forget to mention that the opposition usually puts forward an amendment, so if the Liberals were smart, they would agree to pass the budget only if the Tories support their amendment (which likely won't happen).
I hope they at least wait until I get back from NY March 28th until they call an election :)
The Bloc Quebecois is already saying they will support the budget, so it looks like an election is off for now, at least.
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