Winners: Tories and NDP, Losers: Bloc Quebecois and Liberals
What a night it has been for by-elections. The results were certainly much different than some of us expected. Now before commenting on the specifics, I should note by-elections have low turnouts and often produce different results than what would happen in a general election, so one should be careful about not reading too much into these. So below will be my analysis for each party.
Conservatives: If you are a Conservative, you will no doubt be happy with these results. Not only did the Tories win Roberval-Lac Saint Jean, they got close to 60% which is far more than most predicted. They also had a strong respectable second place showing in Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot. These numbers certainly suggest the Tories could make big gains in rural Quebec, although not necessarily a majority as I doubt they will gain much if anything in Atlantic Canada (they are more likely to lose seats here than gain) and there is still Ontario and unless the Tories can pick up some suburban and mid sized city seats, getting a majority will be really difficult. Never mind, voting Conservative in the West will no longer be a protest vote, so people in the West will probably take a closer look at the party before voting for it. Still the Conservatives should be happy with the results, but those predicting a Conservative majority should lay off on it at this point.
NDP: The NDP has never won a seat in Quebec in a general election and only once in a by-election so this is a big gain for them. The question is will they hold onto this in the general election or lose it like they did last time. In addition the size of their win in a safe Liberal riding is something Dippers should be really proud of. If anything we could see a historical re-alignment of Quebecers voting along left-centre-right lines instead of separtist vs. federalist, which I see as a good thing even if it regretably means more seats for the NDP and Tories in some parts of the province. As long as we can as Liberals pick up some of the seats is what matters.
Bloc Quebecois: Definitely a bad night for them. Lost Roberval-Lac Saint Jean badly, won Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot by a narrower margin and fell to almost 10% in Outremont where they were competitive last time around. They may want to think twice about voting against the throne speech with these results. They seem to have encountered trouble after trouble since last election in Quebec, so obviously they need to figure out why they and their provincial counterparts are losing ground. Off course I am quite happy to see both of them continue to lose ground.
Liberals: This finally brings me to the party I support. Tonight was definitely a bad night as we lost badly in a safe Liberal riding and failed to get above 10% in the two rural Quebec ridings. However, we have two paths we can take from here going forward. Through out my life I've suffered several setbacks, some worse than others, but I never lose sight of my long-term goal and I have usually eventually achieved it, even if it happened later than I wanted. So we can start a dump Dion movement and fight amongst ourselves over what wrong and lose the next election or we can unite together and start working towards winning the next election. This means uniting behind our leader, this means no longer taking ridings for granted that we have won in the past, and this means no longer assuming we will win because it is our God given right to win. We are not entitled to anyone's vote, we have to earn it the hard way and unfortunately I feel too many Liberals still think it is our God given right to be in power and Canadians are obligated to vote for us rather than earning people's trust. We are still quite strong in Ontario and unlike Quebec, Ontario results tend to be far more predictable. We have a great shot at picking up seats in Atlantic Canada and in fact we could have one of our best showings in that region ever. Also, with the prospect of a Conservative majority, people in the West will no longer be able to vote Conservative as a protest vote and therefore as Western Canadians have doubts about the Conservatives we must move those doubters over to the Liberal column. And in Quebec, we need to not let this setback cause us to give up because I've found in life, those who give up usually fail, while those who continue to try not only succeed, but come out stronger when they do. As for the throne speech, we probably aren't ready for an election, but lets not look weak and vote for it just to avoid an election. Lets see what is in it and decide accordingly.
Conservatives: If you are a Conservative, you will no doubt be happy with these results. Not only did the Tories win Roberval-Lac Saint Jean, they got close to 60% which is far more than most predicted. They also had a strong respectable second place showing in Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot. These numbers certainly suggest the Tories could make big gains in rural Quebec, although not necessarily a majority as I doubt they will gain much if anything in Atlantic Canada (they are more likely to lose seats here than gain) and there is still Ontario and unless the Tories can pick up some suburban and mid sized city seats, getting a majority will be really difficult. Never mind, voting Conservative in the West will no longer be a protest vote, so people in the West will probably take a closer look at the party before voting for it. Still the Conservatives should be happy with the results, but those predicting a Conservative majority should lay off on it at this point.
NDP: The NDP has never won a seat in Quebec in a general election and only once in a by-election so this is a big gain for them. The question is will they hold onto this in the general election or lose it like they did last time. In addition the size of their win in a safe Liberal riding is something Dippers should be really proud of. If anything we could see a historical re-alignment of Quebecers voting along left-centre-right lines instead of separtist vs. federalist, which I see as a good thing even if it regretably means more seats for the NDP and Tories in some parts of the province. As long as we can as Liberals pick up some of the seats is what matters.
Bloc Quebecois: Definitely a bad night for them. Lost Roberval-Lac Saint Jean badly, won Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot by a narrower margin and fell to almost 10% in Outremont where they were competitive last time around. They may want to think twice about voting against the throne speech with these results. They seem to have encountered trouble after trouble since last election in Quebec, so obviously they need to figure out why they and their provincial counterparts are losing ground. Off course I am quite happy to see both of them continue to lose ground.
Liberals: This finally brings me to the party I support. Tonight was definitely a bad night as we lost badly in a safe Liberal riding and failed to get above 10% in the two rural Quebec ridings. However, we have two paths we can take from here going forward. Through out my life I've suffered several setbacks, some worse than others, but I never lose sight of my long-term goal and I have usually eventually achieved it, even if it happened later than I wanted. So we can start a dump Dion movement and fight amongst ourselves over what wrong and lose the next election or we can unite together and start working towards winning the next election. This means uniting behind our leader, this means no longer taking ridings for granted that we have won in the past, and this means no longer assuming we will win because it is our God given right to win. We are not entitled to anyone's vote, we have to earn it the hard way and unfortunately I feel too many Liberals still think it is our God given right to be in power and Canadians are obligated to vote for us rather than earning people's trust. We are still quite strong in Ontario and unlike Quebec, Ontario results tend to be far more predictable. We have a great shot at picking up seats in Atlantic Canada and in fact we could have one of our best showings in that region ever. Also, with the prospect of a Conservative majority, people in the West will no longer be able to vote Conservative as a protest vote and therefore as Western Canadians have doubts about the Conservatives we must move those doubters over to the Liberal column. And in Quebec, we need to not let this setback cause us to give up because I've found in life, those who give up usually fail, while those who continue to try not only succeed, but come out stronger when they do. As for the throne speech, we probably aren't ready for an election, but lets not look weak and vote for it just to avoid an election. Lets see what is in it and decide accordingly.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 7:52 PM
10 Comments:
I am a Liberal too and first we should stop this appointment crap because in Scarborough Southwest theyre might be a blacklash where Dion appointed a female canadiate M Simson over the tamil and hindu community who wanted to particpate in the nomination. I say lets replace Dion with Iggy asap
Anonymous - I think appointing candidates should be done sparingly and only done if there is a good reason. In the case of Scarborough Southwest, this was done to increase female representation in winneable ridings as this is a very safe Liberal riding that will go Liberal no matter what. In the case of Jocelyn Coulon, I agree it was a dumb choice especially considering his views on Israel and the fact Outremont has a large Jewish population who historically have been the most rock solid in terms of voting Liberal. I wonder how many in the Jewish community just choose to stay home (as I cannot see many of them going NDP).
As for replacing Dion, I strongly disagree. Regardless of what you think of him, we could be into an election anytime and if we don't have a leader ready to go, we will lose. I don't want to see Harper win the next election, but by infighting and trying to choose a new leader, we will ensure this happens. If Harper had a majority, you would have a point, but when we have a minority, we need to stick with our leader.
But doesn't it strike you how totally irrelevant the LPC has become outside of the big cities.
I mean, fourth place Miles?
And why is the LPC having so much trouble fund-raising?
I agree though that the party needs to unite behind Dion. He's the wrong guy, but axing him now wouldn't show leadership, merely desperation.
My forecasts:
Fund-raising will dry up even more;
Iggy's operatives will continue to undermine Dion even more; and
in desperation, Dion will lurch the LPC even more to the left.
Anonymous - It is true outside of Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have struggled in the big cities, but considering how poorly the Tories do in the cities, I don't think it is uniquely a Liberal problem. The problem is more why can we not find a party that reasonates in both the large cities and countryside.
As for fundraising, I cannot predict here, but no doubt the Liberals are definitely having their troubles. The only good thing is our elections rely considerably less on big money than they do in the US, so all though a disadvantage to the Liberals, not as big as it could be.
I am not sure the party will necessarily go any further to the left than it has since 2000. I think a more accurate description is due to the fiscal situation in the 90s, the party swung to the right, and then swung back to where it was before.
Miles, with all due respect, I don't where you get this idea that Jews don't vote NDP. In fact they have historically supported the party at an above-average rate and are certainly prominent in the party (i.e. David and Stephen Lewis, Dave Barrett, etc.) They are very well represented among the urban intelligentsia types that vote heavily NDP. Now that you live in Trinity-Spadina you'll have a chance to meet a lot of them!
Only about one-third of the Jews in Outremont riding are ultraconservative Hassidic types. A lot of the rest are very assimilated urban intelligentsia and bohemian types who don't at all cast their votes on Israel policy (and Mulcair is very pro-Israel anyway). It's true that in Mount Royal they'd never vote NDP but that's because that riding consists of affluent suburbs like Hampstead and Cote St. Luc that will vote Liberal no matter what. If the Liberals suffered a Kim Campbell defeat that would be one of their two seats left!
In the next election Julius Grey, a very prominent Jewish Montrealer and leading civil liberties lawyer, is rumored to be running in Westmount-Ville Marie.
I'm an NDP supporter so I'm glad Mulcair won, but I have to say the attacks on Coulon for being "anti-Israel" were totally unfair. Nothing really that extreme or unreasonable. I'm sure any so-called "Mideast expert" is bound to have written something that has offended ultraconservative Hassidic Jews or Islamic fundamentalists - and probably both.
Bnai Brith represents the small minority of rightwing mostly orthodox Jews that vote Tory simply because they're 95% pro-Israel while the Liberals are only 90% and the NDP only 85%. Most Jews don't cast their votes primarily based on Israel policy.
Ken of Kensington - I am not suggesting some Jews don't vote NDP, but if you look at the ridings with large Jewish populations, the NDP has generally fared quite poorly. Here in Ontario (where I am a little more familiar with the political scene) ridings such as St. Paul's, Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre, Thornhill, and Vaughan all have large Jewish populations and the NDP struggles to even make it into double digits in these ridings. Also most are not Orthodox Jews who tend to go Conservative. Most other Jews however vote Liberal and it is true many in the Jewish community are left of centre, but not socialists. Otherwise, it is the Liberals who do best amongst the Jewish community.
While I am not suggesting must Jews vote solely on the Middle East issues, when who is seen as strongly critical of Israel could lose some of the swing votes in the Jewish community and Coulon, fair or not fair, was criticized as being anti-Israel, even if his criticism were legitimate. And most people generally don't research issues in depth, so statements like this can hurt, much the same way the Tories' statement of Dion not being a leader hurt, even though it is absolute nonsense.
Nobody denies the Liberals get the bulk of the Jewish vote. A look at the heavily Jewish ridings will definitely tell you the Liberals win the most votes and the Conservatives do very poorly.
But upon further investigation, the NDP does much better than one would believe looking at the results. It is well known among political scientsits and pollsters that Jews are well to the left of non-Jews of similar status. So in a wealthy riding like St. Paul the Liberals and the NDP do better among Jews and the Conservative vote is more heavily WASP. Similarly the Jews who live in ridings like Trinity-Spadina vote overwhelmingly NDP.
There is data to back this up. One study by Laponce (1987), a UBC professor, showed that Jews voted NDP at an above-average rate esp. after one takes into account things like education, occupation, etc. So in the 1970s and 1980s the NDP was running at 23% among Jews outside Quebec. This was when the party was getting around 10% in St. Pauls (now they get around 20% BTW).
More recently I spoke with Michael Marzolini about this. Marzolini is a Liberal pollster who is head of Pollara. He said in 2004 and 2006 the Jewish Liberal vote declined. But the beneficiary was actually the NDP, where they went above the (already-above average) 1980s level. The Conservatives did far worse among Jewish voters than they did in the 80s.
Generally recently arrived groups are overwhelmingly Liberal and get more independent as they're more established. Since Jews are overwhelmingly small-"l" liberal it makes sense the NDP would be the beneficiary. There isn't anything really that socialist about the NDP anymore.
King of Kensington - Interesting data. I was going more by the fact the NDP has historically done quite poorly in ridings with large Jewish communities. Here in Toronto the big ones are Thornhill, Vaughan, St. Paul's, Eglinton-Lawrence, and York Centre, which are all very safe Liberal ridings. I knew the Conservatives didn't do well amongst the Jewish vote as a whole, the one exception though being the Orthodox Jews, but they only represent a small fraction of the community, however the Tories did win a whole series of polls on the west side of York Centre and Eglinton-Lawrence, which I believe has a large Hassadic Jewish community, but they fared poorly in all the other areas that are predominately moderate Jews.
Yes, this echoes a trend in the US. Places like Beverly Hills, Manhattan and Westchester County have large Jewish populations and and tend to vote for liberal Democrats. Yet some of the ultra-orthodox enclaves of Brooklyn and Rockland County vote for the Republicans by whopping margins. But in the end American Jews go about 80% Democrat. In Canada it is generally believed that the combined Liberal/NDP vote is around 85%.
The interesting point here is you can get a general trend based on riding results but you often miss subtle things because usually ridings aren't all that homogeneous - no riding has a Jewish majority, for instance. Marzolini also told me that the Italian Canadian vote is less Liberal than one might think (and is a lot Liberal than it used to be). I think in Vaughan the Conservatives are very poorly organized (provincially and federally) and they have very popular incumbents to boot that pads the Liberal vote higher. So it's likely a lot of Italians in places like Richmond Hill, Oak Ridges and Caledon vote Tory in quite large numbers (while places like Hamilton and the Soo a lot will vote NDP).
King of Kensington - I believe the data that says over 85% of Jews vote for centre and left wing parties. In the US, 75% voted for Kerry and 85% voted Democrats in midterm elections. It is true in New York, the Democrats do well in Westchester County and Manhattan which are mostly liberal and moderate Jews while the Republicans were stronger in Rockland County which is more Orthodox Jews.
As for the Italians, a similiar trend has occured in the US as well. Staten Island has the largest Italian population of any county, yet it usually goes Republican. Here in Canada, I think it depends more on where the Italian community lives and also how many generations they have been here. Those in the city proper still go overwhelmingly Liberal, but more go Conservative in the suburbs and especially in the rural areas. Although I should note making comparisons to the US may not work here since the largest wave of Italians to Canada was in the 50s, while in the US it was around the turn of the century so most Italian-Americans are fully Americanized, only speak English, and just happen to have Italian ancestry. Here in Canada, most younger people around my age speak English as their first language, while people around my parents age are more likely to still speak Italian.
Post a Comment
<< Home