Ontario Election - Live Blogging
After coming home from work, I voted today and despite not being registered, it only took a few minutes. I was a former Progressive Conservative federally and have generally been supportive of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives and therefore was initially looking forward to supporting John Tory. However, with the defining issue by about extending funding to other religious schools and little else to distinguish McGuinty with Tory, I could not in good conscience vote Ontario PC this time around, therefore just as I entered the polling station I made up my mind to vote Liberal. I believe John Tory has many good ideas and is not too extreme unlike Harper, but due to my strong disagreement on the most pivotal issue, I could not vote for a party who I disagreed so strongly with on the most pivotal issue, even if I agreed with them on most other issues. I don't believe Dalton McGuinty has been a great premier, but neither has he been a bad one, so I can live with him as premier for another four years if there is no better alternative.
I should also note that I would have voted PC in some ridings where the PCs had a realistic chance of winning and a decent candidate, but in my riding, Trinity-Spadina, it is between the NDP and Liberals and I off course prefer the Liberals. More importantly I would rather have a Liberal majority than a Liberal minority who would have to rely on the NDP to prop them up.
On the referedum, I voted No and without holding up my nose. I have no idea how this will turnout, but hope it goes down in defeat.
UPDATE at 9:11PM
The Liberals and Tories are tied. I also heard the internal polls from the three parties showed the Tories only 5-7 points behind, so the Liberals still being re-elected, but not by as much as expected. Perhaps maybe when it became clear the Liberals were going to win, some people went back to the Tories since they didn't want McGuinty to win another large majority. Also MMP seems to be losing badly, which is a good thing, lets hope it stays the way.
UPDATE 9:15PM
CTV projects a Liberal win, but won't say whether it is a minority or majority. Although with the Liberals being 20 and PCs 19, a minority still looks possible.
UPDATE 9:16PM
Now 25 Liberal, 20 PC, so the lead widening slightly, although still closer than expected. However, I would have to look at which ridings are reporting and what part of the ridings the polls are coming from to get a better gage of how things are going.
UPDATE 9:23PM
First elected MMP, Rick Bartolucci of Sudbury, for the Liberal Party of Ontario. So far the Liberals are at 38, Tories 24, and NDP 3, so not looking good for the NDP, while the Liberals have pulled into a more comfortable lead.
UPDATE 9:27PM
Howard Hampton wins his seats, no surprise. I also think at this point with 46 Liberal, 26 PC, and 7 NDP, I am going to predict a Liberal majority. Lets see if I am right.
UPDATE 9:32PM
CTV predicts a Liberal majority, so it looks like the pollsters were right.
UPDATE 9:41PM
CTV Predicts referendum will fail. Good is all I can say.
UPDATE 9:59PM
Dalton McGuinty re-elected in his riding, no surprise.
UPDATE 10:13PM
My riding goes NDP, Trinity-Spadina, ugh.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The final results are still not in and we still don't know if Tory has won his riding, but now time to weigh in on the results. The Liberals have a large majority, while the PCs absolutely bombed this election and may even do worse than Ernie Eves not just in share of the popular vote, but also seats (under the re-distributed results, Eves would have won 29 seats). Some Liberals will say it is a result of their good governance, but I would argue tonight's results were due to two factors.
1. People weren't overly happy with McGuinty, but they weren't overly angry either so a lot depended on who his opponent was.
2. John Tory with funding of religious schools caused his campaign to self-destruct and the Liberals to win. In fact in terms of popular vote, the Liberals fell by almost as much as the Tories and it was third parties (NDP and Green Party) gained the most. This suggests there were many voters who were unhappy with both parties.
My congratulations to McGuinty and I wish him best of luck in his second term. Although I don't agree with him on everything, I can't say there is much to complain about how things have been going. As for the PC, it is clear with these disastrous results than John Tory needs to go as leader. Had he formed a stronger opposition, I would argue he should stay on, but with results even worse than Ernie Eves' disaster in 2003, he needs to go. In order to succeed, the party should do two things.
1. Find issues that will separate them from the Liberals and issues that reasonate with voters
2. And don't move to the right. Many are tempted to return to the Harris era of more right wing policies, but I would argue that is not the way to go as there appears to be no appetite for a more conservative government unlike in 1995. Unfortunately I fear they will go in this direction, but I hope I am wrong.
UPDATE 10:49PM
I have seen Dalton McGuinty's speech was so far has been good and generally positive like much of his campaign. It is though rather odd to have the premier speak before the leader of the opposition, but I guess John Tory is waiting until his riding is decided before speaking. It will be interesting to see if he resigns on the spot after the disastrous results tonight.
UPDATE 10:56PM
John Tory has lost his riding and the Ontario PCs have been shut out of Toronto once again.
UPDATE 11:00PM
John Tory is speaking now and is conceding the riding of Don Valley West. It looks as though John Tory is staying put as leader for now, although I wonder how long that will last. He has said he will consult with his party in the coming days to decide what to do about the future.
In closing here, it will be interesting how the federal parties view the results. While those results do look promising for the federal Liberals, Ontario does have a long history of going one way federally and another provincially, so I wouldn't read too much in them. In addition, voter turnout was about 15% lower than the federal level so I wonder how many Tory voters just stayed home because of John Tory's lousy campaign. Also Saskatchewan will be having an election on November 7th. In all likelihood, the Saskatchewan Party appears to be in the best position to win, but that assumes that don't bomb the campaign much like Tory did. Considering the Liberals are not that competitive here and the fact I am a Blue Liberal/Red Tory, I am hereby endorsing the Saskatchewan Party, although I do hope the Liberals win a few seats and would vote Liberal if I lived in a riding they had a legitimate shot at winning.
I should also note that I would have voted PC in some ridings where the PCs had a realistic chance of winning and a decent candidate, but in my riding, Trinity-Spadina, it is between the NDP and Liberals and I off course prefer the Liberals. More importantly I would rather have a Liberal majority than a Liberal minority who would have to rely on the NDP to prop them up.
On the referedum, I voted No and without holding up my nose. I have no idea how this will turnout, but hope it goes down in defeat.
UPDATE at 9:11PM
The Liberals and Tories are tied. I also heard the internal polls from the three parties showed the Tories only 5-7 points behind, so the Liberals still being re-elected, but not by as much as expected. Perhaps maybe when it became clear the Liberals were going to win, some people went back to the Tories since they didn't want McGuinty to win another large majority. Also MMP seems to be losing badly, which is a good thing, lets hope it stays the way.
UPDATE 9:15PM
CTV projects a Liberal win, but won't say whether it is a minority or majority. Although with the Liberals being 20 and PCs 19, a minority still looks possible.
UPDATE 9:16PM
Now 25 Liberal, 20 PC, so the lead widening slightly, although still closer than expected. However, I would have to look at which ridings are reporting and what part of the ridings the polls are coming from to get a better gage of how things are going.
UPDATE 9:23PM
First elected MMP, Rick Bartolucci of Sudbury, for the Liberal Party of Ontario. So far the Liberals are at 38, Tories 24, and NDP 3, so not looking good for the NDP, while the Liberals have pulled into a more comfortable lead.
UPDATE 9:27PM
Howard Hampton wins his seats, no surprise. I also think at this point with 46 Liberal, 26 PC, and 7 NDP, I am going to predict a Liberal majority. Lets see if I am right.
UPDATE 9:32PM
CTV predicts a Liberal majority, so it looks like the pollsters were right.
UPDATE 9:41PM
CTV Predicts referendum will fail. Good is all I can say.
UPDATE 9:59PM
Dalton McGuinty re-elected in his riding, no surprise.
UPDATE 10:13PM
My riding goes NDP, Trinity-Spadina, ugh.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The final results are still not in and we still don't know if Tory has won his riding, but now time to weigh in on the results. The Liberals have a large majority, while the PCs absolutely bombed this election and may even do worse than Ernie Eves not just in share of the popular vote, but also seats (under the re-distributed results, Eves would have won 29 seats). Some Liberals will say it is a result of their good governance, but I would argue tonight's results were due to two factors.
1. People weren't overly happy with McGuinty, but they weren't overly angry either so a lot depended on who his opponent was.
2. John Tory with funding of religious schools caused his campaign to self-destruct and the Liberals to win. In fact in terms of popular vote, the Liberals fell by almost as much as the Tories and it was third parties (NDP and Green Party) gained the most. This suggests there were many voters who were unhappy with both parties.
My congratulations to McGuinty and I wish him best of luck in his second term. Although I don't agree with him on everything, I can't say there is much to complain about how things have been going. As for the PC, it is clear with these disastrous results than John Tory needs to go as leader. Had he formed a stronger opposition, I would argue he should stay on, but with results even worse than Ernie Eves' disaster in 2003, he needs to go. In order to succeed, the party should do two things.
1. Find issues that will separate them from the Liberals and issues that reasonate with voters
2. And don't move to the right. Many are tempted to return to the Harris era of more right wing policies, but I would argue that is not the way to go as there appears to be no appetite for a more conservative government unlike in 1995. Unfortunately I fear they will go in this direction, but I hope I am wrong.
UPDATE 10:49PM
I have seen Dalton McGuinty's speech was so far has been good and generally positive like much of his campaign. It is though rather odd to have the premier speak before the leader of the opposition, but I guess John Tory is waiting until his riding is decided before speaking. It will be interesting to see if he resigns on the spot after the disastrous results tonight.
UPDATE 10:56PM
John Tory has lost his riding and the Ontario PCs have been shut out of Toronto once again.
UPDATE 11:00PM
John Tory is speaking now and is conceding the riding of Don Valley West. It looks as though John Tory is staying put as leader for now, although I wonder how long that will last. He has said he will consult with his party in the coming days to decide what to do about the future.
In closing here, it will be interesting how the federal parties view the results. While those results do look promising for the federal Liberals, Ontario does have a long history of going one way federally and another provincially, so I wouldn't read too much in them. In addition, voter turnout was about 15% lower than the federal level so I wonder how many Tory voters just stayed home because of John Tory's lousy campaign. Also Saskatchewan will be having an election on November 7th. In all likelihood, the Saskatchewan Party appears to be in the best position to win, but that assumes that don't bomb the campaign much like Tory did. Considering the Liberals are not that competitive here and the fact I am a Blue Liberal/Red Tory, I am hereby endorsing the Saskatchewan Party, although I do hope the Liberals win a few seats and would vote Liberal if I lived in a riding they had a legitimate shot at winning.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 5:56 PM
1 Comments:
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