Florida and South Carolina Primaries

Recently the Democrats had their South Carolina primary and the Republicans had the Florida primary. Below is my take on each as well as Edward's decision to drop out of the Democrats and Rudy Guiliani's decision to drop out of the Republicans.

Obama wins South Carolina

This is definitely a big win for Obama and the fact he won by a such a large margin no doubt puts him back in the game. However, the Democrat race is far from over. Super Tuesday next week might give us a better idea who the front runner is, but that assumes either Clinton or Obama take the majority of states. If the two split the results closely as they have so far, it could be a while before we see who wins the Democrat leadership. Unlike the Republicans who have a clear front-runner, there is not a front-runner for the Democrats at the moment.

Edwards bows out

For John Edwards, South Carolina was his make or break. Considering this was his birth state, he had to win there if he was to have any chance of staying competitive. After losing South Carolina, there was clearly no way he was going to win the Democrat nomination, so it made sense to bow out. I predicted he would drop out if he failed to win South Carolina. Now the big question is who he will endorse since this will provide a big boost to whoever he endorses.

In addition to this, the Kennedy family has endorsed Obama. While I would generally say this is a positive, it could have some negatives since the Kennedy family is viewed as coming from the Liberal side of the Democrats and unlike in the 60s, the word Liberal is almost like a four letter word in the United States these days. I could just see the Republicans running attack ads saying ultra-liberal Ted Kennedy has endorsed Obama, does this mean Obama is an ultra-liberal and do we really want an ultra-liberal. While Ted Kennedy's views are hardly that left wing by Canadian, European, or Australian standards, in the US they are. Still I hope enough Americans will realize all this fearmongering about how evil and dangerous liberals are is just that and they will tune it out, especially with Obama's message of hope and unity, versus pessimism and division.

McCain wins Florida

While there may be no front-runner in the Democrats, McCain is undoubtedly the front-runner for the Republicans. It is not a guarantee he will win, but both Romney and especially Huckabee are going to need to do well on Super Tuesday if they wish to stay competitive. McCain is undoubtedly the candidate the Democrats would least like to face is he actually has a realistic shot at winning whereas Romney and Huckabee don't. At the same time, I generally believe parties run stronger campaigns when they know there is the possibility of losing than when they think it is in the bag. If the Democrats think the election is in the bag, I am worried they might get cocky and then lose by surprise, whereas at least with McCain they will put in their full effort and not take anything for granted. If you want to see an example of a party losing due to thinking the election was in the bag, think David Peterson in 1990, Paul Martin 2006, WAC Bennett 1972, or Harry Strom 1971. These were all people who assumed their opponents had no chance of beating them, yet lost because they got too cocky and thought they had the election in the bag. I hope the Democrats don't make this mistake.

Rudy Guiliani bows out

I always thought Rudy Guiliani's idea of writing off earlier primaries and focusing solely on Florida was a bad strategy. While the earlier primaries may have had fewer delegates, winning those gives the appearance of momentum. By performing poorly in these, Guiliani no longer came across as a competitor, so by the time the Florida primary came around, it was too late to recover. He put all his resources into winning Florida, so anything less than a win in Florida, meant it was over for him. Not surprisingly he threw his support behind McCain, who is probably the next most moderate of the Republican candidates after Guiliani. This will definitely be a huge boost to McCain on the whole. The only liability here is that some hard-core conservatives don't like the fact Guiliani is pro-choice, supports gay rights, and gun control. However, while those views may not be popular amongst the Republican base, he does have a stronger appeal to moderate Americans than either Romney or Huckabee. And never mind he is still a conservative on foreign policy and law and order. By either Canadian or European standards, he would be too conservative to be electable.

South Carolina and Nevada Primaries

Last Weekend, the Republicans had primaries in South Carolina and Nevada, while the Democrats had one in Nevada. I was pleased to see McCain win South Carolina, while disappointed that Obama didn't win Nevada. As for what this means, here is my interpretation.

Republicans

Romney's win in Nevada no doubt puts him back in the game since he now has two wins (three if you include the Wyoming delegates) under his belt. At the same time this was overshadowed by South Carolina, which is a key state. Usually whoever, wins this goes on to win the Republican nomination. While I wouldn't say it is sure thing McCain will win, he is definitely looking strong. South Carolina has a large Evangelical community and this is a crucial part of the Republican base. Many including myself thought McCain was too moderate for this group. This also weakens Huckabee's campaign considerably as this was the group he was strongest amongst. I would say that if he cannot carry several Southern states on Super Tuesday, his run is over. Likewise Guiliani's dismal showings to date pretty much mean he must win in Florida or his run is over. Romney's main area of strength is more the Midwest and Mountain West since despite his social conservatism, the fact he is a Mormon is probably a liability in the South. Off course, while I am happy McCain won in the sense that I see him as one of the better choices amongst the Republicans, I am somewhat concerned in the sense that he just might be able to win the presidency, whereas at least Huckabee and Romney are far less likely to become president. By the same token, I find their views so repulsive that I would rather have a Republican leader I can tolerate, than one I absolutely despise. Since I am not a hardcore conservative, I don't think I will like any leader the Republicans choose.

Democrats

Hilary Clinton's win in Nevada undoubtedly gives her a lot of momentum, however it is still much too early to make any predictions. The next few states will be very crucial in determining whether Obama remains a competitor or not. John Edwards stands little chance at this point of winning the Democrat nomination and I suspect, if he doesn't win South Carolina, he will have no choice but to bow out. Even though I am disappointed that Hilary Clinton won Nevada, I would still support her over any of the Republicans. However, I not only prefer Obama's vision to hers, I believe he will be tougher for the Republicans to beat than Clinton.

Recent Events

Okay, it has been a few days since blogging, but here is my take on the recent events.

Michigan Primary

In the case of the Democrats it is largely meaningless as both Obama and Edwards refused to be put on the ballot in protest of the date being moved earlier. However, for the Republicans, Romney's win makes this a three way race and maybe even a four way race if Guiliani wins some on Super Tuesday. Romney put a lot of money into this state and played up the fact he was born there and this seems to have paid off. Off course Huckabee being popular amongst Evangelicals should help him in some of the Southern states, while McCain having the momentum and being seen as the most electable still means he has plenty of chances to win elsewhere.

The Chalk River Reactor Issue

This issue touches me personally more than others. When I lived in Vancouver, I was constantly asked if I was related to Gary Lunn, since we share a common surname and my answer was off course No, since he is not a relative despite the fact Lunn is a relatively rare surname. Now living in Toronto, I assumed I would never get asked this again as he was the Natural Resources minister which is normally a low profile ministry, but after mishandling this, he is back in the news nationally.

Now on the issue itself, I think the firing of Linda Keen was disgusting. What happened at Chalk River was unfortunate, but we have a Nuclear safety watchdog to ensure we don't have a Chernobyl type incident. This requires that the head be someone who is expert in Nuclear safety and one who is free from political interference. The shutdown that lead to a shortage of isotopes was serious and an investigation should have been launched into what caused this and if the investigation turned out that Linda Keen was negligent, then fire her, however to fire her for political grand-standing is absolutely dispicable. I am concerned about the high levels of partisanship from both the Liberals and Tories, but at least the Liberals never took it to this extreme. To Harper and Gary Lunn, Shame on you!

Manufacturing Crisis

While I don't always agree with Harper, I do think he was right to refuse to offer Ford a subsidy. I don't believe businesses should be getting government subsidies as this involves picking winners and losers, which the government traditionally is not good at, but also it leads to businesses that are poorly run continuing to be poorly run knowing they will get subsidies. In British Columbia, Gordon Campbell as part of his 2001 New Era promises, eliminated corporate subsidies and there is little evidence this has harmed British Columbia. While I agree corporate tax cuts are definitely one solution, I also understand that plant closures do lead to job losses and here the government does have a role to play. However, its role should be to provide programs to re-train workers so that they can find new jobs. The reality is our economy is rapidly changing and certain industries will come and others will go. Trying to keep a dying industry alive only prolongs the inevitable, instead we should help those in those industries make the transition to new ones. Besides I am not sure manufacturing is totally dying. I realize the high dollar is hurting exports, but one should remember, Toyota and Honda have both opened plants in Ontario not too long ago and are expanding. The problem here seems more that the Big three American companies are making lousy cars compared to the Japanese, which is why they are facing trouble. As someone who also has an interest in cars, the reality is American cars since the 70s have generally been lousy, which is why I have only driven a Japanese car which are smaller, reliable, and last long.

I will have more on Nevada and South Carolina primaries later.

New Hampshire Primary

With all the networks projecting McCain as the winner for the Republicans and Clinton as the winner for the Democrats. I am not surprised about the first one, but very surprised about the second as some polls showed Obama with a 10 point lead over Clinton. I off course was hoping for Obama, so I am somewhat disappointed Clinton won, but this only once again makes this truly a competitive race. We probably won't know for at least another few primaries who will be the leader of the Democrats and hopefully the next president. As for the sudden comeback, I am not exactly sure what happened, but I do know Clinton is a real fighter and won't go down without a fight, so I think the third place showing in Iowa really caused many in the Clinton camp to step up the effort.

As for the Republicans, I think McCain is certainly a better choice than Romney or Huckabee whose views I find scary. On the other hand, although McCain is definitely to the right of me, I can at least tolerate some of his views and the fact in the senate he was better able to work with Democrats means at least a McCain presidency with a Democrat controlled congress might be able to do something productive unlike the current congress which is deadlocked due to Bush's instrigence. McCain needed to win this to stay in the game and he did. As for Romney, two second place finishes are definitely a blow to him, however, I don't think he will drop out yet. Huckabee's poor showing is no surprise and considering that the religious right is much smaller in New Hampshire than some other states including Iowa and coming up states such as South Carolina. So I suspect many in the Huckabee camp are hoping to pick up much of the religious right vote in states where that vote is much larger. I hope they fail, but I will not deny the possibility of them succeeding at doing this. Guiliani fared poorly as expected, but he pretty much wrote off both New Hampshire and Iowa, so the next primaries will be the big test. Super Tuesday will ultimately decide whether Guiliani is still competitive or not.

Huckabee and Obama win Iowa caucuses

A few months back, the predictions were that Hilary Clinton would easily capture the Democrat nomination and Rudy Guiliani would easily win the Republican one. While those two may still go on to be the eventual victors of their respective parties, the results in Iowa were much different than many would have guessed earlier. Mike Huckabee not only come out of nowhere and into contention, he went on to win Iowa caucuses resoundingly despite the fact he was outspent massively by Mitt Romney and faced a barrage of attack ads from the Romney camp. McCain and Guiliani were not in contention in Iowa despite the fact they are still in contention at the national level. For the Democrats, Obama was gaining momentum and pulled off a win, with Edwards and Clinton still battling out for second and third.

If there was a common theme of the two caucuses, it was that the people of Iowa were tired of the status quo and wanted those who represented change. There were however, deeper reasons for tonight's results. In the case of the Republicans, Iowa has a very strong Evangelical community and Huckabee's social conservatism as well as the fact he was a former Baptist minister gave him a strong appeal amongst this group. While this group is strong in Iowa, they are considerably weaker in New Hampshire, where Republicans tend to be more the smaller government type ones as opposed to social conservatives, so Huckabee will likely face more difficulty there. In the case of Obama, his support was strongest amongst both younger voters as well as Independents. Unlike Clinton who is a very polarizing candidate, Obama has a much stronger appeal to independent voters. Although this was only becoming apparent recently to many, I saw this all along since in his home state of Illinois, he won several traditionally Republican counties in the senate race in 2004 and is well-respected across the spectrum. Now, that more people elsewhere in the country are getting to hear about Obama's vision, many are coming over to his camp. Another significant factor is Iowa has a relatively small Black community compared to many other states, so if a Black candidate can win in an overwhelmingly white state, this should hopefully put to rest the idea the United States isn't ready for a Black president. I've argued all along that the only group who has a problem with a female and/or Black president are the hard-core Conservatives who won't vote Democrat no matter what. The Democrat and swing voters for the most part don't have a problem with either and this is where the Democrats will get their votes from, not the hard-core conservatives.

As for what this means? It no doubt gives a lot of momentum to both Obama and Huckabee, but it is far from over. John Edward's competitive showing means he is still not out and Hilary Clinton will likely continue to fight back. On the Republican side, Romney will definitely need to win New Hampshire if he is to still stay in the game. Despite McCain's poor showing in Iowa, where he put very little effort in the first place, most polls show him neck-neck with Romney in New Hampshire, so a McCain win there will be pivotal in determining whether he has momentum going forward or not. Rudy Guiliani has pretty much written off both states, so we will have to wait for South Carolina as well as Super Tuesday to see whether the strategy of focusing on later states was wise or not.

I am certainly pleased to see Obama win Iowa, while although not a fan of Huckabee, the fact a candidate who relied on the traditional method of grassroots support rather than big money and negative ads is a plus. Hopefully the next president will have those two qualities minus the right wing views Huckabee holds.