Florida and South Carolina Primaries
Recently the Democrats had their South Carolina primary and the Republicans had the Florida primary. Below is my take on each as well as Edward's decision to drop out of the Democrats and Rudy Guiliani's decision to drop out of the Republicans.
Obama wins South Carolina
This is definitely a big win for Obama and the fact he won by a such a large margin no doubt puts him back in the game. However, the Democrat race is far from over. Super Tuesday next week might give us a better idea who the front runner is, but that assumes either Clinton or Obama take the majority of states. If the two split the results closely as they have so far, it could be a while before we see who wins the Democrat leadership. Unlike the Republicans who have a clear front-runner, there is not a front-runner for the Democrats at the moment.
Edwards bows out
For John Edwards, South Carolina was his make or break. Considering this was his birth state, he had to win there if he was to have any chance of staying competitive. After losing South Carolina, there was clearly no way he was going to win the Democrat nomination, so it made sense to bow out. I predicted he would drop out if he failed to win South Carolina. Now the big question is who he will endorse since this will provide a big boost to whoever he endorses.
In addition to this, the Kennedy family has endorsed Obama. While I would generally say this is a positive, it could have some negatives since the Kennedy family is viewed as coming from the Liberal side of the Democrats and unlike in the 60s, the word Liberal is almost like a four letter word in the United States these days. I could just see the Republicans running attack ads saying ultra-liberal Ted Kennedy has endorsed Obama, does this mean Obama is an ultra-liberal and do we really want an ultra-liberal. While Ted Kennedy's views are hardly that left wing by Canadian, European, or Australian standards, in the US they are. Still I hope enough Americans will realize all this fearmongering about how evil and dangerous liberals are is just that and they will tune it out, especially with Obama's message of hope and unity, versus pessimism and division.
McCain wins Florida
While there may be no front-runner in the Democrats, McCain is undoubtedly the front-runner for the Republicans. It is not a guarantee he will win, but both Romney and especially Huckabee are going to need to do well on Super Tuesday if they wish to stay competitive. McCain is undoubtedly the candidate the Democrats would least like to face is he actually has a realistic shot at winning whereas Romney and Huckabee don't. At the same time, I generally believe parties run stronger campaigns when they know there is the possibility of losing than when they think it is in the bag. If the Democrats think the election is in the bag, I am worried they might get cocky and then lose by surprise, whereas at least with McCain they will put in their full effort and not take anything for granted. If you want to see an example of a party losing due to thinking the election was in the bag, think David Peterson in 1990, Paul Martin 2006, WAC Bennett 1972, or Harry Strom 1971. These were all people who assumed their opponents had no chance of beating them, yet lost because they got too cocky and thought they had the election in the bag. I hope the Democrats don't make this mistake.
Rudy Guiliani bows out
I always thought Rudy Guiliani's idea of writing off earlier primaries and focusing solely on Florida was a bad strategy. While the earlier primaries may have had fewer delegates, winning those gives the appearance of momentum. By performing poorly in these, Guiliani no longer came across as a competitor, so by the time the Florida primary came around, it was too late to recover. He put all his resources into winning Florida, so anything less than a win in Florida, meant it was over for him. Not surprisingly he threw his support behind McCain, who is probably the next most moderate of the Republican candidates after Guiliani. This will definitely be a huge boost to McCain on the whole. The only liability here is that some hard-core conservatives don't like the fact Guiliani is pro-choice, supports gay rights, and gun control. However, while those views may not be popular amongst the Republican base, he does have a stronger appeal to moderate Americans than either Romney or Huckabee. And never mind he is still a conservative on foreign policy and law and order. By either Canadian or European standards, he would be too conservative to be electable.
Obama wins South Carolina
This is definitely a big win for Obama and the fact he won by a such a large margin no doubt puts him back in the game. However, the Democrat race is far from over. Super Tuesday next week might give us a better idea who the front runner is, but that assumes either Clinton or Obama take the majority of states. If the two split the results closely as they have so far, it could be a while before we see who wins the Democrat leadership. Unlike the Republicans who have a clear front-runner, there is not a front-runner for the Democrats at the moment.
Edwards bows out
For John Edwards, South Carolina was his make or break. Considering this was his birth state, he had to win there if he was to have any chance of staying competitive. After losing South Carolina, there was clearly no way he was going to win the Democrat nomination, so it made sense to bow out. I predicted he would drop out if he failed to win South Carolina. Now the big question is who he will endorse since this will provide a big boost to whoever he endorses.
In addition to this, the Kennedy family has endorsed Obama. While I would generally say this is a positive, it could have some negatives since the Kennedy family is viewed as coming from the Liberal side of the Democrats and unlike in the 60s, the word Liberal is almost like a four letter word in the United States these days. I could just see the Republicans running attack ads saying ultra-liberal Ted Kennedy has endorsed Obama, does this mean Obama is an ultra-liberal and do we really want an ultra-liberal. While Ted Kennedy's views are hardly that left wing by Canadian, European, or Australian standards, in the US they are. Still I hope enough Americans will realize all this fearmongering about how evil and dangerous liberals are is just that and they will tune it out, especially with Obama's message of hope and unity, versus pessimism and division.
McCain wins Florida
While there may be no front-runner in the Democrats, McCain is undoubtedly the front-runner for the Republicans. It is not a guarantee he will win, but both Romney and especially Huckabee are going to need to do well on Super Tuesday if they wish to stay competitive. McCain is undoubtedly the candidate the Democrats would least like to face is he actually has a realistic shot at winning whereas Romney and Huckabee don't. At the same time, I generally believe parties run stronger campaigns when they know there is the possibility of losing than when they think it is in the bag. If the Democrats think the election is in the bag, I am worried they might get cocky and then lose by surprise, whereas at least with McCain they will put in their full effort and not take anything for granted. If you want to see an example of a party losing due to thinking the election was in the bag, think David Peterson in 1990, Paul Martin 2006, WAC Bennett 1972, or Harry Strom 1971. These were all people who assumed their opponents had no chance of beating them, yet lost because they got too cocky and thought they had the election in the bag. I hope the Democrats don't make this mistake.
Rudy Guiliani bows out
I always thought Rudy Guiliani's idea of writing off earlier primaries and focusing solely on Florida was a bad strategy. While the earlier primaries may have had fewer delegates, winning those gives the appearance of momentum. By performing poorly in these, Guiliani no longer came across as a competitor, so by the time the Florida primary came around, it was too late to recover. He put all his resources into winning Florida, so anything less than a win in Florida, meant it was over for him. Not surprisingly he threw his support behind McCain, who is probably the next most moderate of the Republican candidates after Guiliani. This will definitely be a huge boost to McCain on the whole. The only liability here is that some hard-core conservatives don't like the fact Guiliani is pro-choice, supports gay rights, and gun control. However, while those views may not be popular amongst the Republican base, he does have a stronger appeal to moderate Americans than either Romney or Huckabee. And never mind he is still a conservative on foreign policy and law and order. By either Canadian or European standards, he would be too conservative to be electable.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 2:38 PM
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