Wilson's defection to the Green Party and the upcoming election here in Canada
Today the Green Party got their first MP when Blair Wilson defected to the Greens after being kicked out of the Liberal caucus and not being re-admitted over possibly over-spending during the last campaign. I have always supported the right of MPs to switch parties and so I have no objections to Blair Wilson's decision to join the Green Party, although I think he will face a difficult time getting re-elected in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country. That being said, the riding is probably one of the more favourable ones for the Greens when you consider it includes the Sea to Sky Corridor and Sunshine Coast so a Green Party win there, while unlikely, is not impossible. As for what this will mean for the Greens, it is tough to say. They could have a large breakthrough like the Reform Party did in 1993, or it could be meaningless and the party goes nowhere. That being said, I think the Liberals and NDP are probably hoping it doesn't benefit them while the Tories probably hope it does.
As for the upcoming federal election, the polls are certainly not looking good for the Tories, especially in Ontario where they are polling at their lowest since being elected in 2006, so my guess is they want to go now since they fear things will get even worse, not because Harper feels he has a good chance at a majority government. As for the Liberals, the numbers are not ideal, but they are good enough, so I am content with them. As for what while happen, there are five possibilities that I could forsee, two being very plausible, another two being highly unlikely, and the final having almost no chance of happening.
1. Another Conservative minority - How this would play out would depend on whether this was a strengthned minority for the Tories or a weaker one. A weaker one would divide both parties between those wanting their leaders to go and those wanting them to stay. Some Tories would argue with everything going in his favour, the fact Harper couldn't move them any further is proof they need someone new to take them to the next stage, while others would argue that since he would still be PM, he should be able to stay on. As for the Liberals, some would argue anything less than winning the next election means Dion was the wrong choice and needs to go, while others would argue he is taking them in the right direction and with Harper being damaged after the election, he should stay on and try to win it next time around. A stronger Tory minority would mean Harper was safe as leader and could probably govern reasonably effectively for at least a year. Since we will likely be out of the recession (or near recession) by then, he will at least be able to avoid an election when the party runs into its biggest difficulties. Dion off course would have no choice but to step down under this scenario.
2. A Liberal minority - Although many Tory bloggers will dismiss this as impossible, looking at the poll numbers and the general mood of the country, I think this is just as likely as the above option. Dion, would obviously get to stay on, so his main challenge would be not over his leadership but rather entering during bad economic times and possibly bringing in the carbon tax at the worse time. If he can avoid an election for the first year, he should be in good shape after that as once the economy starts to recover his numbers will likely rebound and he will be able to run under the platform of turning things around, however he has to be careful to not do anything too controversial to trigger another election as things will be rough in the next year for whoever wins. Harper will off course be gone as leader, so the big question is what direction will the party go in. The right wing of the party will argue that those who didn't vote Tory never will and the party is wasting its time going after them while alienating its core supporters. They will argue the party needs to choose someone more right wing in order to bring out their base, which they believe is large enough to win (I disagree with this off course). On the other hand, many moderates will argue Harper's failure to connect with groups he struggled amongst and his failure to expand beyond the party's right wing base is proof they need someone more moderate who can also appeal to centrist voters as there are simply not enough right wingers in Canada to win by appealing to them only. How it will turn out is anybody's guess.
3. Tory Majority - While highly unlikely, it is not impossible. A strong negative reaction to the carbon tax could turn things around in Atlantic Canada (although I am skeptical), rural Quebec could certainly swing in favour of the Tories as the Bloc continues to decline, the 905 belt and mid sized cities in Ontario, although not Tory now and unlikely to go Tory, they are not so hostile they won't ever go Tory, they simply don't feel comfortable with going for the Tories under Harper at the moment. While this is not likely to change, it is still possible. The few seats they don't have in the Prairies are not enough to make a difference. Finally in British Columbia, it is a real wild card and with the Greens, NDP, and Liberals splitting the centre and left votes, they could pick up a number of seats there, although with BC's past history of bucking national trends, any gains here could easily be offset by losses elsewhere. The chances of this happening are pretty slim and the Tories would have to run a near perfect campaign while the Liberals a disastrous one for this to happen.
4. Liberal Majority - While most Tories would say I am insane for even suggesting this as a possibility, I do believe it is possible, although not likely. Although it is true I have a tough time thinking where they will pick up another 50 seats, I've seen more than enough elections where a 10 point or greater swing has occurred, so with the Liberals polling around 33% and the fact they tend to do well amongst undecideds as well as have a much better ability to pick up soft Green and soft NDP votes still makes this a possibility even if remote.
5. A party other than the Liberals or Conservatives win the election. The chances of this happening are pretty close to zero as besides the Green Party and NDP, all the other parties are either largely unknown or don't run candidates in enough ridings for this to be even feasible. In the case of the Greens, people may like them, but they still have too low a profile. Never mind, even in Europe where the Greens are much stronger, they have only been in government when included in a governing coalition, they have never won on their own right anywhere in the world and somehow Canada just doesn't seem like the most likely place for the first Green Party victory. While the NDP is polling almost as high as Bob Rae was going into the 1990 Ontario election, I suspect if the NDP was to see a large enough rise during the election, the question would turn from do they deserve a larger voice in parliament to should they form government since as good sounding as their ideas are to some, I suspect at the moment Canadians are not in the mood to go into uncharted waters.
As for predictions, it is too early to make them. For one thing, the large margin of errors makes the regional numbers suspect and therefore makes it difficult to make seat projections. During the election there will be enough polls as well as several regional ones that it will be clearer on not only the regional numbers but also the distribution within each region as well. I will post my predictions in the final week.
In the mean time I will be in Quebec City and Ottawa for the next week for my vacation so I won't be blogging until the second week of September.
As for the upcoming federal election, the polls are certainly not looking good for the Tories, especially in Ontario where they are polling at their lowest since being elected in 2006, so my guess is they want to go now since they fear things will get even worse, not because Harper feels he has a good chance at a majority government. As for the Liberals, the numbers are not ideal, but they are good enough, so I am content with them. As for what while happen, there are five possibilities that I could forsee, two being very plausible, another two being highly unlikely, and the final having almost no chance of happening.
1. Another Conservative minority - How this would play out would depend on whether this was a strengthned minority for the Tories or a weaker one. A weaker one would divide both parties between those wanting their leaders to go and those wanting them to stay. Some Tories would argue with everything going in his favour, the fact Harper couldn't move them any further is proof they need someone new to take them to the next stage, while others would argue that since he would still be PM, he should be able to stay on. As for the Liberals, some would argue anything less than winning the next election means Dion was the wrong choice and needs to go, while others would argue he is taking them in the right direction and with Harper being damaged after the election, he should stay on and try to win it next time around. A stronger Tory minority would mean Harper was safe as leader and could probably govern reasonably effectively for at least a year. Since we will likely be out of the recession (or near recession) by then, he will at least be able to avoid an election when the party runs into its biggest difficulties. Dion off course would have no choice but to step down under this scenario.
2. A Liberal minority - Although many Tory bloggers will dismiss this as impossible, looking at the poll numbers and the general mood of the country, I think this is just as likely as the above option. Dion, would obviously get to stay on, so his main challenge would be not over his leadership but rather entering during bad economic times and possibly bringing in the carbon tax at the worse time. If he can avoid an election for the first year, he should be in good shape after that as once the economy starts to recover his numbers will likely rebound and he will be able to run under the platform of turning things around, however he has to be careful to not do anything too controversial to trigger another election as things will be rough in the next year for whoever wins. Harper will off course be gone as leader, so the big question is what direction will the party go in. The right wing of the party will argue that those who didn't vote Tory never will and the party is wasting its time going after them while alienating its core supporters. They will argue the party needs to choose someone more right wing in order to bring out their base, which they believe is large enough to win (I disagree with this off course). On the other hand, many moderates will argue Harper's failure to connect with groups he struggled amongst and his failure to expand beyond the party's right wing base is proof they need someone more moderate who can also appeal to centrist voters as there are simply not enough right wingers in Canada to win by appealing to them only. How it will turn out is anybody's guess.
3. Tory Majority - While highly unlikely, it is not impossible. A strong negative reaction to the carbon tax could turn things around in Atlantic Canada (although I am skeptical), rural Quebec could certainly swing in favour of the Tories as the Bloc continues to decline, the 905 belt and mid sized cities in Ontario, although not Tory now and unlikely to go Tory, they are not so hostile they won't ever go Tory, they simply don't feel comfortable with going for the Tories under Harper at the moment. While this is not likely to change, it is still possible. The few seats they don't have in the Prairies are not enough to make a difference. Finally in British Columbia, it is a real wild card and with the Greens, NDP, and Liberals splitting the centre and left votes, they could pick up a number of seats there, although with BC's past history of bucking national trends, any gains here could easily be offset by losses elsewhere. The chances of this happening are pretty slim and the Tories would have to run a near perfect campaign while the Liberals a disastrous one for this to happen.
4. Liberal Majority - While most Tories would say I am insane for even suggesting this as a possibility, I do believe it is possible, although not likely. Although it is true I have a tough time thinking where they will pick up another 50 seats, I've seen more than enough elections where a 10 point or greater swing has occurred, so with the Liberals polling around 33% and the fact they tend to do well amongst undecideds as well as have a much better ability to pick up soft Green and soft NDP votes still makes this a possibility even if remote.
5. A party other than the Liberals or Conservatives win the election. The chances of this happening are pretty close to zero as besides the Green Party and NDP, all the other parties are either largely unknown or don't run candidates in enough ridings for this to be even feasible. In the case of the Greens, people may like them, but they still have too low a profile. Never mind, even in Europe where the Greens are much stronger, they have only been in government when included in a governing coalition, they have never won on their own right anywhere in the world and somehow Canada just doesn't seem like the most likely place for the first Green Party victory. While the NDP is polling almost as high as Bob Rae was going into the 1990 Ontario election, I suspect if the NDP was to see a large enough rise during the election, the question would turn from do they deserve a larger voice in parliament to should they form government since as good sounding as their ideas are to some, I suspect at the moment Canadians are not in the mood to go into uncharted waters.
As for predictions, it is too early to make them. For one thing, the large margin of errors makes the regional numbers suspect and therefore makes it difficult to make seat projections. During the election there will be enough polls as well as several regional ones that it will be clearer on not only the regional numbers but also the distribution within each region as well. I will post my predictions in the final week.
In the mean time I will be in Quebec City and Ottawa for the next week for my vacation so I won't be blogging until the second week of September.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 5:50 PM
3 Comments:
What does it say about the Green Party that it accepted a man who was so incompetent, as a politician, with dealing with his finances in his electoral campaigns that his own father in law said he was not a good man for that job?
I think it was a good move on the Green Party's part. As for ethics, all parties are corrupt to some degree or another, it is just a matter of degree and who gets caught or not. The reality is compared to most countries in the world, Canada is probably one of the least corrupt.
In addition, I think it was a good strategic move as the Green Party has no seats, so it has nothing to lose, while at the some time this will likely get them in the debates which could help legitimize the party.
It's pretty pointless to have him as a Green MP at this point, since there's no chance he will get to sit in Parliament when it resumes, because it's not going to.
I'm very interested in the so called "media consortium's" reaction to all this. And I would laugh if even after all this they STILL deny Ms. May a spot in the leader's debate.
Still, Kory whats his name, Harper's new Communications Director, made an absolutely illogical claim that because May is not running against a Liberal, she automatically is a Liberal, and they can't have two Liberal leaders in the debate!
Sheeesh, what hash have you been smoking Kory?
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