Election possibilities

Earlier I made some predictions on what might or might not happen. Since then a few things have happened. Last week, the Liberals came close to a statistical tie with the NDP while the Tories were on the cusp of a majority. It seems now the Liberals have rebounded and are clearly in second place again (thankfully, although first would be better), while the Tories are not polling at around 36%, otherwise exactly what they got last federal election, meaning an election today would only yield a slightly stronger minority, around 130-135 seats. So if the momentum keeps up a Liberal win, is at least within the range of possibility, although not likely, but I would rather it was possible than not. Never mind, the NDP taking over as the second place party would be a disaster for Canada. We have already seen the right become less moderate as the Reform/Alliance replaced the more moderate Progressive Conservatives and I would hate to the same thing happen on the centre and left. Having a polarized electorate and wild swings in the pendelum is bad for Canada and something that needs to be avoided at all cost. Ironically, Britain which was known for its polarized electorate is moving away from that with both the Labour Party and Conservatives moving closer to the centre, so I would hate to see us go down the failed path they did in the past.

Anyways here are the possibilities for each party from the best and worse case scenario

Conservatives

Best case scenario: 160 seats - The Tories run a very strong campaign from now until the end and more importantly are able to allay fears with the 3-5% who are swinging back and forth between the Tories and other parties that a Tory majority is not something they need to fear. Also, voter turnout is low and since those over 50 tend to have the highest turnout and are also the group the Tories are strongest amongst, they do better than expected. This would be done by gaining rather than losing seats in Atlantic Canada, They make a modest recovery in Quebec and end with around 20 seats there. In Ontario they make strong gains in the 905 belt and mid sized cities outside the GTA, therefore picking up 15 seats in Ontario. In the West, they pick up 2-3 seats in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, sweep Alberta, and gain 10 seats in British Columbia, otherwise win most of the seats that when for the Canadian Alliance in 2000, but since the centre and left is far more divided than it was then, they don't need to get the 49% the Alliance got in 2000.

Worse case scenario - 100 seats - The other parties continue their attack on the Tories. This leads to major strategic voting so the split on the centre and the left doesn't materialize, while enough soft Tory supporters decide to move elsewhere so the party only gets 33% (that is only a few points lower than what they have now). In Atlantic Canada, they take a big hit and win between 2-4 seats, in Quebec, they lose rather than gain seats winning only 5-6 seats as the Bloc Quebecois continues their relentless attack on the Tories being out of touch with Quebec and the Tories make another announcement than turns off Quebecers. In Ontario, the NDP and Greens realize their vote is only a vote for the Tories, so they coalesce around the Liberals and knock off the Tories in the ten closest ridings (i.e. St. Catharines, Barrie, Kitchener-Conestoga, Ottawa-Orleans) reducing the Tories to 30 seats in Ontario. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Liberals retake Winnipeg South and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, while the NDP picks up Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. In Alberta, the NDP scores a stunning upset in Edmonton-Strathcona. While in British Columbia, the centre and left split on a province wide basis, but in each riding there is strategic voting whereby in Liberal/Tory ridings such as Richmond, the NDP and Greens swing over to the Liberals while in NDP/Tory ridings such as Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, the Liberals and Greens swing over to the NDP. The Tories end up dropping two seats to 15 seats.

Liberals

Best case scenario - 120 seats - The Liberals continue their uptick as NDP and Greens abandon move over to the Liberals to stop Harper while a few soft Tory votes swing over there way as well as the undecided (which is around 15%) breaks heavily in favour of the Liberals as it has in the past two elections. Dion is also performs surprisingly well in the English debate, while the four leaders do a good job of ripping Harper apart and he is unable to counteract their attacks. The Liberals win over 25 seats in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the NDP and Green vote collapse in the greater Montreal area while the Tories arts cuts and law and order platform swings a sizeable chunk of Tory voters over to the Liberals. They end up with 20 seats in Quebec, all in the Greater Montreal area and Outaouis though. In Ontario, the NDP and Green vote collapse while the Tories lose some soft supporters and drop to 32-33% in the province. The Liberals snatch half the ridings they lost in 2006 and get between 60-65 seats in Ontario. In the West, the Liberals pick up Winnipeg South and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, while in British Columbia, they maintain 9 seats (lose West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, but win either Fleetwood-Port Kells or Saanich-Gulf Islands).

Worse Case Scenario - 60 seats - Dion makes a major blunder in the debates and both the NDP and Tories make the carbon tax a major issue for the remainder of the campaign. It becomes clear Harper will be re-elected, so the question is who would make a better opposition leader. Dion comes across as looking weak, while Layton as a competent and strong one. In Atlantic Canada, they are unable to capitalize on discomfort with Harper and instead the NDP is the prime beneficiary. The Liberals lose seats here. In Quebec, the NDP makes a strong rebound on the island of Montreal pushing the Liberals to an all time low in seats and votes in La Belle Province. In Ontario, the Liberals are reduced to a Toronto party winning around 35 seats, mostly in the 416 and inner 905 ridings and a smattering of ridings elsewhere in the province such as Ottawa-Vanier and Kingston & the Islands. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Ralph Goodale is the lone Liberal left standing and his margin of victory is significantly smaller than the last two elections. In British Columbia they take a big hit and win only 2-3 seats.

Bloc Quebecois

Best case scenario - 60 seats

Gilles Duceppe continues his relentless attack on the Tories and how their out of touch with the priorities of Quebecers. This works in getting the progressive vote to unite behind the Bloc Quebecois. Although the Bloc fails to break their popular vote record of 49%, they do break their seat record of 54 seats taking half the Tory seats and also picking up a few Liberal seats.

Worse Case scenario - 30 seats

Harper's numbers remain steady in British Columbia and in Ontario he is ahead in all the swing ridings that matter, so he spends much of the latter half of the campaign, trying to shore up support in Quebec as this is the only thing standing between him and a majority. Likewise both the Liberals and NDP also see their numbers rise. The Bloc Quebecois still comes in first for votes and seats, but has their worst showing since their founding.

NDP

Best Case Scenario - 55 seats

Jack Layton succeeds in setting an all time record of breaking Ed Broadbent's 1988 record in terms of both popular vote and seats. Add to the fact the NDP vote is fairly concentrated, so even with only 20% of the popular vote, they can win many seats. In Atlantic Canada, he capitalizes on Harper's unpopularity in the region and opposition to the Green Shift. He comes out with 8 seats. In Quebec, he attacks the Liberals as being weak, the Bloc Quebecois as being ineffective and the Tories as too extreme for Quebec. He is able to take advantage of Quebec's more left of centre politics and get in the high teens in votes and pick up 2-4 seats. In Ontario, it becomes clear Harper will win, so Layton is able to convince progressive voters he is a more effective opposition leader pointing to the fact the Liberals abstained on 43 confidence measures, while the NDP has voted against the Tories on every single one. He is also picks up some Green supporters. With gains mainly in Northern Ontario, he wins 18-20 seats, the best showing of the party in Ontario. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, he is able to convince his provincial counterparts to stump for him and in the case of Manitoba have Gary Doer who is very popular give him a strong endorsement. He comes out with 6 seats here. Picks up Edmonton-Strathcona in Alberta. In British Columbia, he turns to his provincial counterparts who are polling at close to 40% for help. The BC NDP and their leader Carole James make clear that Harper does not in any way shape or form represent what they stand for and that he represents what Campbell was like in his first term all over again. Also, they pick up many Green votes as well as those who vote Liberal federally but NDP provincially. Layton walks out with 12-15 seats in BC.

Worse Case scenario - 20 seats - Despite the strong campaign showing, the fear of a Harper majority is strong enough to scare a large chunk of NDP voters into the Liberal arms. In Atlantic Canada, the two incumbents are re-elected, but nothing else, the NDP loses Outremont to the Liberals in Quebec, while in Ontario drops to 5-7 seats. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, they win Winnipeg Centre and Winnipeg North, but lose Elmwood-Transcona to the Tories. In British Columbia, they are unable to unite progressives and instead end up losing seats to the Tories, only winning 5 seats.

Green Party

Best case scenario is just to win a seat everywhere, but even if they fail to win a seat, if they get above 10% of the popular vote, this will at least make them be taken more seriously next time around. More importantly the fact they could get 10% under the FTFP system will be a huge breakthrough as this is their best showings in European countries that use some form of proportional representation, not their average showing. On the other hand if they win no seats, have no second place finishes and get less than 7% of the popular vote it will undoubetdly be considered a disappointment.

This means that while a Conservative majority is possible, it is not likely and likwise a Liberal win maybe difficult but not impossible. That being said, time is running out and by next week if the Liberals still have a deficit of more than seven points in the polls they are finished in terms of their chances of winning and likewise if by the Thanksgiving weekend, they are not within 5% of the Tories they are also finished. Due to last minute shifts, as long as the last string of polls place them within 5% of the Tories, they could still pull off an upset.

Why I still support Dion

As the polls have shown the Liberals to continuously struggle and many suggesting at the moment the Liberals may fall below 28% (that is their worse showing ever in terms of popular vote, which happened in 1984), so many people are questioning whether Dion was the right choice. I know many people not involved in politics who have views very similiar to what Dion espouses, yet refuse to vote for him since they somehow believe he is a weak leader. As someone who follows politics closely, the problem with Dion, is not what he stands for, the problem is he does a poor job of selling it. In fact if people would actually listen to his speeches and read his platform, I believe he would be doing much better. Anyways here is why regardless of opinion polls, I plan to vote Liberal and not just to stop Stephen Harper, but actually to vote for Stephane Dion.

Stephane Dion is a leader

Contrary to popular position, Stephane Dion has shown that he is a true leader, not a weak leader as the Tory ads portray. What is ironic is the whole weak leader idea was started by the Tories, yet somehow people bought into it. After all, your political opponents are rarely going to say nice things about you and that is about the last place one should look for an honest opinion on someone. However, the reason why I believe he is a leader is his introduction and defence of the clarity act as intergovernmental affairs minister. Back in 1995, the Yes side nearly won a referendum in Quebec, yet a full 1/3 of Yes voters thought Quebec would still remain part of Quebec in the event of Yes victory due to the convuloted question. As someone who put his country first, Dion wanted to make sure this would never happen again. He introduced the clarity act which stated Quebec could only separate with a clear question and a clear majority. The Quebec media ridiculed him to great lengths but he stood his ground and in the end succeeded. Today separtism is at an all time low and even so much that the Bloc and PQ have put the idea of another referendum on the back burner. This is an example of a true leader, not a weak leader.

Stephane Dion is a centrist

Harper has gone to great lengths to argue that under Dion, the Liberals have taken a dramatic shift to the left and are socialists in disguise. This is again totally untrue and anyone who bothered to read their platform and also read the NDP would realize the differences between the two parties are just as stark as they are between the Conservatives and Liberals. If Dion were really as left wing as Harper says he is, I would have torn up my Liberal membership card in an instant, however, I know full well this is not the case. Dion favours both corporate and income tax cuts, hardly a socialist policy. He favours helping low income parents with childcare, not a full blown childcare program like Martin proposed. He has stated unequovically we will have a balanced budget even if it means spending cuts, again hardly a hallmark of a socialist. In fact ironically, his policies are very similiar to other conservative leaders abroad such as Angela Merkel in Germany and David Cameron in Britain, neither who anyone would describe as socialist. Likewise, his platform is one that I could easily see a Red Tory from the former Progressive Conservatives supporting. True, those on the centre-left would also agree with much of the platform, but I suspect the ideologues on both the left and right would find it tough to stomach, which is off course a good thing in my view. I lived under a socialist government in the 90s in BC, so I know what a socialist government is like and Dion is not even remotely similiar to one. In BC politics, he would be closer to Gordon Campbell than Carole James although still to the left of Gordon Campbell.

Liberals have the best platform

Forget about the ten second sound bytes and front page news, if you want to see who would be the best person to run the country, the best thing to do is to read the party platform and check out the party website. There are many Liberal policies I disagree with, as no party perfectly matches my views, however on the whole I feel their policies are well reasoned and balanced. More importantly, they are made based on what works best, not on some populist slogan or as others have done based on what side of the spectrum they fall on. In fact, I get the impression Dion is the only leader who ignores the whole idea of whether an idea is a "right wing" or "left wing" idea and instead looks at whether it is a "good idea" or "bad idea". Now some may say it is great to make great long speeches and have good articles, but if you want to sell something you need to do it in ten second bytes. While that maybe the case regretably, I think that is unfortunate and is certainly not what will influence how I vote. When buying a new house, you don't take just a minute looking through, you spend a whole day looking through several carefully and likewise when buying a new car, you test drive each one, not just look at the exterior. When choosing the next PM, one should look carefully at each party's platform. There is no reason why one cannot spare 10 minutes to read the party platform.

So while it is looking increasingly likely that Dion will not win the next election (although still possible), I will still happily vote for him as I believe he would make the best PM of the choices available.

Conservative Justice Plan

Today the Conservatives unveiled their plan for revamping the young offender's act. While I have no doubt it will be popular outside of Quebec, I think it is a bad idea and regardless of its appeal, needs to be opposed. This is also the case that if framed properly, the Liberals can turn this against the Tories, however it has to be done right. I am not opposed to charging young offenders as adults in the most extreme cases, but this should be an option available, not a requirement. In addition, it should only be done in the most extreme cases when a psychiatric assessment shows there is little to no chance of rehabilatating the offender such as the killers of Rena Virk in BC in 1996. However, this discretion should be left up to the judge in charge of the case. Instead the Tories are trying a failed system of lock them up approach used in the United States, which has failed on all accounts. It has not reduced crime, while the rate of incarceration has skyrocketed and it has been a huge cost to taxpayers. Instead rehabilatation in the majority of cases not only reduces the risk of the person re-offending, but also costs less than incarceration. By rehabilatating young offenders, they can become productive citizens as adults rather than hardened criminals. The most troubling part of all is to release the names of convicted young offenders. This is I oppose as once it is known someone has committed a crime, their chances of receiving any meaningful employment as an adult is considerably reduced. This increases the chances they will continue to commit crimes as an adult and even if they don't if they cannot find meaningful employment they are more likely to cost taxpayers money in terms of having to support them on social assistance. So from a taxpayer's point of view, this will cost a lot. In the case of the United States, their total prison population is larger than the population of the ten smallest states and in fact 1 in 10 Black males between 25-29 are currently incarcerated. Yet despite this, the United States has one of the highest crime rates, if not the highest in the developed world. Regardless of ideology, I believe in doing what works rather than what does not work. Now I understand why this might appeal to some and this will be where the Liberals face their main challenge in challenging this. Arguing the experts say this won't work probably won't work to well with your average citizen. That might work with the converted like myself, but that is besides the point.

Instead the Liberals need to point out that Harper's plan likely violate the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Ask him if the courts strike down his plan if he is willing to use the notwithstanding clause. If he says yes, then ask what other areas he might be willing to use it against such as abortion, death penalty, gay marriage etc. Otherwise bring up the old hidden agenda which has worked fairly well in past elections. If he says no, then point out he will have to break his promise by either not implementing his plans or use the notwithstanding clause and tie this into his other broken promises such as not taxing income trusts and breaking the Atlantic Accords. These are simple easy ideas that can make a difference. Long detailed articles on why the policies are bad only works with those who are active in politics and most of them have made up their mind on how they plan to vote. To appeal to the undecided, the Liberals must make it easy and simple to understand, something which regretably they haven't done too well recently unlike the Tories or the NDP.

As for other issues, most of the party policies have been not too controversial, although each party seems to have had their few controversies recently. In the case of the Tories, they had to dump a candidate in Toronto Centre after his comments on his blog on Natives as well as why allowing people to carry concealed weapons could have prevented the greyhound bus murder in Winnipeg of Tim McLean this past August. While the Tories have no chance at winning Toronto Centre, which is probably why they never bothered to properly vet their candidate, this is not too helpful. The Liberals big dumb move was Dion's statement that the Carbon Tax is not a major policy plank. Even if unpopular, backing down only makes things worse. He should stick with the policy and argue it is the right thing. After all, when Trudeau introduced bilingualism, abolished the death penalty, and introduced the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and likewise when Mulroney brought in Free Trade, these were controversial policies with many detractors. But both stuck by their guns and won out in the end. Also the NDP has had a few problems with some of its BC candidates, although I wonder how much it will really hurt them since their stances on marijuana are most likely to anger the types who would never consider voting NDP in the first place.

As for the polls, the Tories are still ahead, although clearly in minority territory. In the case of the Liberals, their numbers are somewhat scattered from being only 5 points behind in the Nanos poll to in a dog fight for second place with the NDP in some other polls. This means the Liberals do still have a chance at winning if they can turn things around, but also could mean falling into a dead heat with the NDP and possibly next time around having the NDP supplant them as the centre-left alternative if things go poorly, so all the more reason to fight hard regardless of which polls one believes.

Gerry Ritz needs to resign or be fired

Over the last few days, we have had a number of campaign announcements and none really too controversial but none overly bold either. Probably makes sense considering the fact we are now entering a recession, people want steady policies, not radical changes. However, the one big headline today was Gerry Ritz's comments about hoping the one listeria death in PEI (it turns out no one died in PEI of listeria) was Wayne Easter. I know that some Tories will argue people sometime say stupid things they shouldn't which is a fair argument. However, there is a time for joking and time not for it. An event as serious as several people dying from listeria is no joking matter. I agree with Wayne Easter, that this is not about the comment of Gerry Ritz against him, but his poor handling of the issue. If Harper is the true leader he claims to be, he would fire him. Likewise if Gerry Ritz is willing to live up to his responsibility he would resign. As for how this will affect the polling numbers, my guess is as good as anyone else's, but I am pretty sure the Tories will at least lose some points over this, although how big the drop will be is hard to say. We probably won't know for three to four days as that is how long it usually takes before the full effects are seen. This along, with Ryan Sparrow's comments, and the Poopin puffin point to an obvious flaw in Harper's team. I've always seen him as a nasty partisan who is a bully and usually people like that tend to attract others like that and surround themselves with people like that. Now Harper, can easily switch to a more gentler personality, but if you surround yourselves with others who are mean and nasty don't expect all of them to easily shift gears when an election is called. As for how this will affect the outcome of the election, that is hard to say as we still have 3 and half weeks and lots can happen so as stated earlier anything from a Liberal minority to a Conservative majority is within the realm of possibility. While the Liberals would probably be doing better in the polls if they were more aggressive, I do like Dion's more consensus oriented approach as opposed to Harper's confrontational approach. A confrontational approach may work well politically regretably, but it is not good for the country. Lets hope the public eventually says enough to smearing and mud slinging and instead debates issues honestly and openly in a respectful manner. Just because someone has different political views doesn't make them automatically a bad person. I have friends and even family members from pretty much every political party and I get along fine with all of them regardless of their views and recognize most have good intentions and in fact our views are not as different as one might think.

Election Predictions

Earlier I said I wouldn't make any predictions until the election gets closer and at this point predicting the outcome is still too early, although every week, I thought I would give a range for each party from the worse case scenario to the best case scenario. Below is the breakdown by region.

Atlantic Canada

This is the one region the Tories have been struggling in. The Liberals are competitive here although it still remains to be seen how well they will do. Likewise the NDP has a golden opportunity to gain based upon the Tory and Liberal mistakes, but whether they will capitalize on this or not remains to be seen.

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

Liberals 4-7 seats (Worse case scenario, hold what they have now, best case scenario sweep the province)

Conservatives 0-3 seats (Worse case scenario lose all three seats while best case scenario hold what they have now).

NDP 0-2 seats (Best case scenario, win both St. John's ridings).

With Danny Williams being very popular and the fact he is campaigning against the Conservatives, I would be extremely surprised if they held the three ridings they currently hold. Fabian Manning's riding is the only riding I think they even have a decent shot at holding.

NOVA SCOTIA

Liberals 5-8 seats (worse case scenario lose West Nova, best case scenario pick up Halifax and South Shore-St. Margaret's)

Conservatives 0-3 seats (Best case scenario, hold the two ridings that have incumbents and pick up West Nova)

NDP 1-4 seats (Worse case scenario lose Halifax, best case scenario pick up South Shore-St. Margaret's and Central Nova)

Green Party 0-1 seats (Win in Central Nova which is possible albeit a long shot)

Independent 1 seat (Bill Casey)

Although the Tories could get shut out of three provinces potentially, I think the chances of them getting shut out of Nova Scotia are pretty low whereas I would not be surprised if they won 0 seats in Newfounland & Labrador and PEI.

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

Liberals 3-4 Seats (Egmont is the only seat that I am not totally certain they will hold, although I think their chances are still better than even)

Conservatives 0-1 seats (Egmont, which is still an uphill battle, although at least possible)

NEW BRUNSWICK

Liberals 2-7 seats (best case scenario, pick up Tobique-Mactaquac, while worse case scenario lose every riding except Beausejour and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe)

Conservatives 2-7 seats (best case scenario, win every riding except Acadie-Bathurst, Beausejour, and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, while worse case scenario lose Tobique-Mactaquac, New Brunswick Southwest and Fundy-Royal are the two safest ridings in Atlantic Canada

NDP 1 seat (Acadie-Bathurst)

If the Tories do make any gains in Atlantic Canada, they are most likely to be in New Brunswick. At this point, I am predicting this will be their best province in terms of their share of the popular vote in Atlantic Canada

Total:

Liberals 14-26 seats
Conservatives 2-14 seats
NDP 2-7 seats
Green party 0-1 seat
Independent 1 seat

Quebec

The Bloc Quebecois has been struggling here and unless they can turn things around, they will likely lose seats. The Tories have had some strong polls putting them at over 30% in the province, but their support is quite soft and may or may not materialize depending on the campaign. The Liberals are largely limited to the island of Montreal and Outaoais region and are dead in the water elsewhere in the province. The NDP has a very good chance at winning at least one seat, but it is unlikely they will have a large breakthrough. Below will be the ridings I am nearly certain each party will win, while the winneable ones are not necessarily ones I think they will win, but at least where the possibility exists. In bold will be potential pick-ups over last time based on how they voted in 2006, not who holds them now.

Bloc Quebecois: Safe Bloc ridings: Rimouski-Temiscouata-Neigette-Les Basques, Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour, Sherbrooke, Shefford, Compton-Stanstead, Brome-Missiquoi, Saint Jean, Chateauguay-St. Constant, Longueil-Pierre Boucher, St. Bruno-St. Hubert, Vercheres-Les Patriotes, Chambly-Borduas, Laurier-Sainte Marie, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Hochelaga-Maissoneuve, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, Marc-Aurele-Fortin, Terrebonne-Blainville, Riviere du Nord, Laurentides-Labelle, Riviere-des-Milles-Iles, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Montcalm, Repentigny, Manicouagan, Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou) 26 seats

Winneable ridings: Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraksa-Riviere-du Loup, Richmond-Arthabaska, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Brossard-La Prairie, Saint Lambert, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber, Papineau, Honore-Mercier, Laval-les Iles, Laval, Alfred-Pellan, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, Pontiac, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Quebec, Louis-Hebert, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles, Beauport-Limoliou, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Roberval-Lac Saint Jean) 58 seats

Liberals: Safe Liberal ridings (Lac Saint Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, La Salle-Emard, Mount Royal, Bourassa, St. Leonard-St. Michel) 8 seats

Winneable ridings: Brossard-La Prairie, Saint Lambert, Jeanne-Le Ber, Ahuntsic, Papineau, Outremont, Westmount-Ville Marie, Honore-Mercier, Laval-les Iles, Laval, Alfred-Pellan, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, Pontiac) 22 seats

Conservatives: Safe Tory ridings (Levis-Bellechasse, Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, Megantic-L'Erable, Beauce, Louis-St. Laurent, Jonquiere-Alma) 6 seats

Winneable ridings: Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup, Richmond-Arthabaska, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Pontiac, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Quebec, Louis-Hebert, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles, Beauport-Limoliou, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Roberval-Lac Saint Jean) 27 seats

NDP: No safe ridings but three winneable ridings (Outremont, Westmount-Ville Marie, and Gatineau)

Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur is re-elected)

Ontario

Prior to the election, the Liberals had a comfortable lead here, but now the Tories are at the very least tied if not ahead. Tory support is consistently been between 30-40%, but Liberal support is a lot less predictable as is Green and NDP support. While the Liberals have a lock on much of the GTA, there are very few safe Liberal ridings outside the GTA. For the Tories they have a lock on most of the rural ridings, but almost every riding with a decent size centre is at least somewhat vulnerable for them. The suburbs, mid sized cities, and mixed/urban rural ridings is where the main battles will be fought. The NDP have a few core ridings, mostly in large urban centres, where their potentials for gains are mostly in Northern Ontario.

Liberals: Safe Liberal ridings (Davenport, Toronto Centre, Don Valley East, Don Valley West, Willowdale, Eglinton-Lawrence, St. Paul's, York South-Weston, York West, York Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough-Rouge River, Pickering-Scarborough East, Markham-Unionville, Thornhill, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Brampton-Springdale, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo, London North Centre, Sudbury, Nippissing-Timiskaming, Ottawa-Vanier, Kingston & the Islands) 34 seats

Winneable ridings: Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina (my riding), Beaches-East York, Whitby-Oshawa, Ajax-Pickering, Oak Ridges-Markham, Newmarket-Aurora, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, Mississauga-Streetsville, Oakville, Halton, Burlington, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, St. Catharines, Welland, Niagara Falls, Simcoe North, Barrie, Guelph, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Brant, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshawe, London West, Sarnia-Lambton, Essex, Kenora, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasking, Nickel Belt, Sault Ste. Marie, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa South, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Peterborough, Northumberland-Quinte West 79 seats

Conservatives: Safe ridings (Durham, York-Simcoe, Niagara West-Glanbrook, Simcoe-Grey, Dufferin-Caledon, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Wellington-Halton Hills, Haldimand-Norfolk, Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Nepean-Carleton, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Prince Edward-Hastings) 22 seats

Winneable Ridings: Oshawa, Whitby-Oshawa, Ajax-Pickering, Oak Ridges-Markham, Newmarket-Aurora, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, Mississauga-Streetsville, Oakville, Halton, Burlington, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Hamilton Mountain, St. Catharines, Welland, Niagara Falls, Simcoe North, Barrie, Guelph, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Brant, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshawe, London West, Sarnia-Lambton, Essex, Kenora, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Peterborough, Northumberland-Quinte West 56 seats

NDP: Safe ridings: (Toronto-Danforth, Hamilton Centre, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West, Timmins-James Bay) 5 seats

Winneable ridings: Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina (my riding ugh!), Beaches-East York, Oshawa, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Welland, London-Fanshawe, Kenora, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Nickel Belt, Sault Ste. Marie, Ottawa Centre 20 seats

Green Party - Guelph is the only riding they have any chance at winning albeit a low chance here

Manitoba

Few accurate polls on this region, although the Tories have a lock most of Rural Manitoba whereas Winnipeg will be a three way race in all likelihood.

Conservatives: Safe ridings (Selkirk-Interlake, Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, Brandon-Souris, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher) 5 seats

Winneable ridings: Winnipeg South, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, Kildonan-St. Paul, Saint Boniface, Winnipeg South Centre, Elmwood-Transcona 11 seats

Liberals: No safe ridings in Manitoba, although I would be very surprised if they actually did get shut out of the province

Winneable ridings: Churchill, Winnipeg South Centre, Saint Boniface, Winnipeg South, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, Kildonan-St. Paul 6 seats

NDP: Safe ridings (Winnipeg Centre and Winnipeg North) 2 seats

Winneable ridings: Churchill, Winnipeg Centre, Winnipeg North, Elmwood-Transcona 4 seats

Saskatchewan

With the Tories dominating much of rural Saskatchewan and every riding having at least a sizeable chunk of rural area, I expect the Tories to win the majority of seats here, although I doubt they will sweep it whereas Alberta there is a better than even chance of pulling off a complete sweep. The NDP may get shut out again, although I wouldn't be surprised if they do win one seat or more.

Conservatives: Safe ridings (Prince Albert, Battlefords-Lloydminster, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville, Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Saskatoon-Humboldt, Blackstrap) 8 seats

Winneable ridings: Every riding except Wascana - 13 seats

Liberals: Wascana is a safe Liberal riding, but beyond that all other ridings will be an uphill battle, although I could see the Liberals regaining Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, so 2 seats at the most.

NDP: Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar is their best bet, although it is very much a possibility they will be shut out of the province for the third time in a row. There are four winneable ridings for them, which are (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Palliser, and Regina-Qu'appelle)

Alberta

Largely ignored in this election as it is pretty much a Conservative fortress. Asides from Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton Centre, the Tories pretty much have a lock on every other riding, meaning a minimum of 26 seats in the province. They could off course and in all probability will sweep the province again. For the NDP, Edmonton-Strathcona is their only hope while Edmonton Centre is the only hope for the Liberals.

British Columbia

The Tories have generally stayed out in front although the size of their lead has varied. With the NDP and Greens being quite strong in BC, there is the potential for vote splitting here even more so than other provinces. The NDP are quite competitive here and in fact are probably more of a threat to the Tories than the Liberals. The Greens could also win a seat here although again not likely. The Liberals are struggling in BC, although I still suspect they should at least hold their ridings in Vancouver and maybe could pick up some in the suburbs.

Conservatives: Safe ridings (Prince George-Peace River, Cariboo-Prince George, Okanagan-Shuswap, Kootenay-Columbia, Okanagan-Coquihalla, Kelowna-Lake Country, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, Delta-Richmond East, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon) 12 seats

Winneable ridings (Skeena-Bulkley Valley, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, British Columbia Southern Interior, Vancouver Island North, Nanaimo-Alberni, Nanaimo-Cowichan, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, North Vancouver, Vancouver-Quadra, New Westminster-Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Richmond, Surrey North, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells) 29 seats

Liberals: Safe ridings (Vancouver South) 1 seat

Winneable ridings: Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, North Vancouver, Vancouver-Quadra, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver-Kingsway, Burnaby-Douglas, Burnaby-New Westminster, Richmond, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells 13 seats

NDP: Safe ridings (Vancouver East) 1 seat

Winneable ridings: Skeena-Bulkley Valley, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, British Columbia Southern Interior, Vancouver Island North, Nanaimo-Alberni, Nanaimo-Cowichan, Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver-Kingsway, Burnaby-Douglas, Burnaby-New Westminster, New Westminster-Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Surrey North, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells 18 seats

Green Party: In all likelihood will win no seats, however both Saanich-Gulf Islands and West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country are ridings that they have the potential to win, so 2 seats at most.

Territories

Liberals 1-3 seats (Definitely Yukon, likely Nunavut, and maybe Western Arctic)

NDP 0-2 seats (Likely Western Arctic, while a remote chance of winning Nunavut)

Conservatives 0-1 seat (Nunavut is the only one of the three they have a reasonable shot at).

Summary

Conservatives 81-179 seats

Liberals 59-152 seats

Bloc Quebecois 26-58 seats

NDP 10-59 seats

Green Party 0-4 seats

Independents 2 seats

So in summary, the Tories could get anything from a stable majority to an outright loss with fewer seats than in 2004. While the seats given here are all the extremes, it is at least a good indication of what is plausible and what is not. The Liberals even in the worse case scenario would almost certainly still remain the official opposition so to those in the NDP who want to displace the Liberals as the official opposition and to those in the Tories who want to see the Liberals disappear it won't happen. By the same token, a Liberal majority appears to be out of the picture, however under the best case scenario they would be close enough that they could easily convince a few members from the opposition to cross the floor and join the party or barring that as long as they don't do anything too stupid, they could probably pass most confidence measures as only 4 members would need to be absent if the speaker is from the opposition while six if the speaker is a Liberal. The Bloc Quebecois will still remain a force, although breaking their record of 54 seats looks increasingly unlikely and if they were to fall below 30 seats, I suspect many would question their usefulness. In the case of the NDP, getting over 50 seats would make them a force to be reckoned with while 10 seats would mean losing their official party status. In the case of the Greens, just winning one seat would be a major breakthrough. In fact, no Green Party member has won a seat in any country that uses First past the post as its electoral system so this would be a first. As the election progresses I will revise these weekly, but only listing the changes, not the whole thing.

Campaign Week 1 wrap up

The first week is now over of the campaign and so far it appears the Tories have a sizeable lead although only a few polls actually show them winning a majority. The Liberals are certainly behind, although it seems that while the Tory numbers are pretty constant, the centre-left vote is being fought over between the Liberals, Greens, and NDP. The Prairies is strong Tory as expected, British Columbia the Tories lead although the Liberals are struggling and the NDP gaining. In Ontario, the Tories appear to be up although again the centre-left vote seems to be uneven meaning it is unclear whether the Liberals are as low as the low 30s or as high as the high 40s. The Bloc continues to struggle in Quebec while the Tories are fairly competitive outside of Montreal. Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are still in front, NDP gaining, and Tories struggling in this one region. As for each party, below is my summary since my last post.

Conservatives

Not exactly the greatest week in terms of gaffes. First the poopin puffin and then Ryan Sparrow's remarks about a father of a soldier killed in Afghanistan are all negatives against the Tories. Although Harper has taken on a softer approach during the campaign, if you have a mean nasty style at other times, it only makes sense he would surround himself with people who have a simliar style and unlike him not all will be able to switch modes easily. In terms of it not hurting their polling numbers, I would argue that it is still too early in the campaign to say for sure. A few gaffes rarely sink a campaign, but repeated gaffes eventually cause a party to plummet so if the rest of the campaign is gaffe free it likely won't hurt them, but if there are several more gaffes than it should hurt them. In terms of policies, Harper promised to pull out of Afghanistan in 2011, ease rules for foreign investment, and lower small business taxes. I support lowering small business taxes, which incidentally the Liberals have long championed and likewise also pulling out of Afghanistan in 2011, another thing the Liberals have supported long before the Tories. As for relaxing rules on foreign ownership, this seems like a risky policy, although I agree with parts of it and disagree with other sections. In the case of banking, we already have competition is foreign ownership rules only apply to Schedule I banks, but Schedule II banks are subsidiaries of foreign owned banks and Schedule III ones are foreign banks, so really no need to change here. In the case of telecommunications, I wouldn't mind seeing Bell Canada, Telus, and Rogers facing a bit more competition, so I support opening up service providers to foreign competition, however ownership of the lines should remain predominately Canadian as this is essentially a natural monopoly. For example, here in Ontario, Bell Canada owns all the lines, however, one can get service from other companies if they so choose and they simply pay a fee to use the lines. As for Airlines, I am not opposed to raising it to 49%, but no higher provided the other country reciprocates. Since it is 49% in the EU but only 25% in the US and unlikely to change anytime soon there, it would mean more European ownership. I flew to Europe twice last year, once by KLM and the other time by Air Canada and the service by KLM was far better so it would be nice if our airlines could learn a bit from European airlines such as KLM-Air France, Lufthansa, and British Airways, however I am not keen on more American ownership here as their airlines over even worse service. However, I disagree with Harper on making changes to ownership of uranium. Since this can be used for nuclear weapons, we should not even think about raising foreign ownership rules here. As much as I support free trade and liberalized investment, this is an area that should be off limits to more foreign ownership and this affects our sovereignty and national security. His feud with Danny Williams seems to be continuing. Although I agree with much of what Danny Williams says about Harper, my question to him is how is he going to work with him if Harper is re-elected which is looking increasingly likely. If he feels so passionate about federal politics, he should resign as premier and run as a Liberal candidate. If the Liberals win, he would be a strong minister due to his experience, while if they lose, he could help re-energize what has been a lacklustre opposition. There is a place for vicious attacks against the PM and place not for them and Danny Williams is not in the proper place. I don't have a problem with him campaigning and endorsing any given party or candidate, but there is a civil way of doing it and an over the top way of doing it.

Liberals

Lots of strong well reasoned policies and certainly reading their website and their promises I am impressed with them. However, the problem is I am keen follower of politics and will read the newspapers from back to front and go to their website. For the non-politicos, they won't do this and that is partly why the party is struggling. They need to get their policies on the front page of newspapers and make their policies easy to sell in only 10 seconds as most people don't follow politics as closely as I do. You can have good policies, but you will not win if you cannot sell them. We have good policies, now is the time to sell them to the public. Their promise of increase funding for health inspectors is definitely a good one in light of the listerous outbreak. I also think their immigration policy on the whole sounds reasonable, although I oppose increasing our immigration intake until we can resolve the backlog and help ensure those already here are able to get jobs that match their skills (i.e. cut the number of taxi drivers with Ph.D's). Only after this is achieved should increases be considered. That being said, all of this I got on the Liberal website, not from the front page of any newspaper. Therefore the Liberals need to get their message out a lot better. I will be voting for them, but I will admit if it didn't follow politics as closely as I do, I don't know if I would be leaning towards the Liberals now. They also handled their one candidate in Quebec who made an insulting comment about aboriginals in 1990. While the riding of Quebec is strictly a race between the Bloc Quebecois and Conservatives just like Halifax is a race between the NDP and Liberals (Conservative candidate was dumped here), having a candidate with negative baggage is never a good thing.

Bloc Quebecois

Once again, their campaign continues to falter. Much of their raison d'etre is gone as sovereignty is no longer a major issue. Now they are trying to position themselves as the centre-left alternative to the Tories, but the problem here is the Bloc Quebecois was always a diverse coalition of unionists and progressives mainly found in Montreal ranging to more conservative nationalists found in the regions. The only thing uniting them was the desire for an independent Quebec.

NDP

While the Liberals are staying off the front page, the NDP is doing a good job of being on it despite being a fourth place party in the House of Commons. Jack Layton promises to tackle high gas prices which is good politics, however regulating gas prices is extremely dumb economically. If the oil companies are colluding, we already have laws to stop this as well as price fixing, but setting prices below world market prices will only ensure more of our oil is exported where prices are higher and less used here. He also promised $10 billion more in equalization to Newfoundland & Labrador which may help him win seats there, but I doubt this will go over well in Ontario especially considering Newfoundland & Labrador is on the verge of becoming a have province while Ontario is on the verge of becoming a have not province so the idea of a poorer Ontario transferring money to a richer Newfoundland & Labrador just doesn't sound right.

Green Party

Lots of attention after being in the debates, but little on policies yet. In addition, it appears any gains they are making are coming at the expense of the Liberals and NDP, not the Conservatives so if anything a strong Green Party will only increase the chances of a Conservative majority.

As for predictions, while the Conservatives definitely have a large enough lead that their chances of winning are better than the Liberals, there is still enough time that the Liberals can come back and win although at this point I think a Liberal minority is probably the best case scenario. A Conservative majority is possible, but I would still say not likely.

Campaign Update #1

We are not even through the first week and already lots has happened so far, so below is my summary by each party.

Conservatives

Lots of attention their ad on www.notaleader.ca that showed a puffin deficating on Stephane Dion. This ad was definitely over the top and certainly looks bad on the Tories. Whether Harper approved or didn't, I think this does say a fair bit about some of the people they attract. That being said, Harper did do the right thing by apologizing and likewise Dion did the right wing by accepting it. As for their two main policy planks released, the one about cutting the diesel tax in half is much like the GST cut. Sounds good, but isn't really all that good. We need to cut our dependence on fossil fuels and this is the wrong way to go. We do need lower taxes overall, but this should be done by cutting income and corporate taxes. As for ending combat in Afghanistan in 2011, I am glad to see Harper has come around to the Liberal position. The Liberals can use this to point out how they were right after all. Still, I think whether one agrees with the Afghanistan mission or not (and I don't), no one can argue that Canada has carried way more than its fair share relative to other NATO allies. In other news, Danny Williams is stepping up his ABC campaign (Anything but Conservative). While I can understand why as a former Progressive Conservative himself he may find Harper too right wing for his views, he is the premier and he cannot determine the outcome of the next election, so he has to at least be able to work with whoever wins. I think Dalton McGuinty's approach of going after the government when they adopt policies that he feels are bad for Ontario is the right approach as opposed to doing it just out of a personal vandetta, which is what it looks like in the case of Danny Williams.

Liberals

Definitely a slow start out of the gate, but considering the situation the party is in I think they are doing alright, although their polling numbers could certainly be better. At the same time despite what some say, the Tories are not on the cusp of a majority. Based on the results from last time around, they need around 42-44%, not 40% to get a majority. Now this off course assumes the shift is even across the country and the Liberals only bleed votes to the Tories not anyone else. In reality, only a riding by riding poll could really say how close or not close they are. The Liberals new ad portraying Stephane Dion as an ordinary Canadian seems like a good idea as this seems to have helped Harper, so maybe it could help Dion. Also, I like the fact they are taking the high road and not using the gutter tactics the Tories are using or what the Liberals used in the two elections. Still, I fear they may have no choice but to go negative if they want to win, which is regretable that elections are more about how bad one's opponent is than how good one is on their own merit. Dion's proposed gun ban is a logical sensible policy as it would exempt all firearms that can be legitimately used for hunting or sporting purposes. In the past, I have been reluctant to support tighter gun laws as Canada's gun laws are already very strict and they do have legitimate purposes for hunting and target shooting. However, this is definitely one I could support. Although I do think cracking down on gun smuggling at the border is where the biggest problem is. I would suggest doing more checks for weapons at the border and giving longer jail sentences for those illegally importing firearms as well as barring all non-citizens without the legal right to reside in Canada from entering Canada for five years if caught smuggling in firearms. His move on the childcare tax benefit was brillant and totally discredited one of the Tory attack ads still up on their webpage incidentally. I also agree with his plan to restore the court challenges program as access to justice should not depend on one's size of their wallet. Many Tory supporters argue the program only supported left wing causes, however even if this were true, this should be corrected by reforming the program not scrapping it. I do agree those who decide which cases to fund should be non-political people from the legal community such as lawyers and retired judges as this would eliminate the idea it was a liberal slush fund.

Bloc Quebecois

If there is one party that seems to not only be polling poorly, but also making mistakes, this is it. Going after a Conservative candidate for her religious views clearly stepped over the line. Attacking someone because of their views on certain issues, even if they are religiously motivated is fair game, but attacking someone for what religion they belong to is not as we have religious freedom in Canada. More importantly many people who have strong religious views believe in practicing them personally, but not imposing them on others. As long as one can keep their faith separate from their political decisions, I could really care less what faith they belong to. To make matters worse today, one former PQ minister attacked the Bloc Quebecois as being an NDP clone. Considering that separtism is declining (note it was already in decline prior to adscam so it has simply returned to pre-adscam levels) the Bloc Quebecois has to have some reason to exist and trying to block Harper from getting a majority seems to be the only raison d'etre. Unfortunately, the Bloc coalition was far from ideologically coherent. While strong in the East end of Montreal, which is working class neighbourhood with a large number of social activists and union members, they were also strong prior to 2006 in the Appalaches-Chaudiere region (just south of Quebec City) which is where the Union Nationale and Credistes were historically strong and now the ADQ, thus a conservative nationalist area. Without the issue of separtism, keeping these two groups together really wasn't possible. That being said as much as I would hate to see the Tories win more seats, I would welcome the decline of the Bloc and seeing Quebec move away from its separtist/federalist to the left vs. right like the rest of Canada.

NDP

As usual overshadowed by the other parties, although it appears their efforts in trying to stop the Green Party from participating in the debates hurt them and in many ways more than the Tories as according to an Angus-Reid poll, their supporters overwhelmingly supported Elizabeth May being included whereas Tory ones were evenly split.

Green Party

The big issue was about them being excluded from the debates. Unlike most Liberals and Canadians, I do agree they should be excluded but for totally different reasons than Stephen Harper or Layton argue. That being said, I would rather than consortium set out clear guidelines for next election on what one needs to get to qualify for the debate. My proposal would be any party who has an elected member or gets over 5% of the vote, which the Greens did neither in 2006 although they probably will get over 5% this time around. This would prevent leaders like Layton and Harper from bullying the consortiums to exclude someone without looking stupid. That being said, strategically it seems odd the Liberals favoured including the Greens but the Tories opposed. After all, the Tories are the most dissimiliar to the Greens of all parties. In terms of votes, the Greens are far less likely to siphon off votes from the Tories than the Liberals. If anything this will only make the centre and left more crowded thus helping the Tories. Even though Elizabeth May claims many Red Tories and ex Reformers are supporting the Greens, my guess is these are probably people dissatisfied with Harper who weren't going to vote Tory anyways. In addition, unlike some, I don't believe more parties is necessarily a good thing. Ideally, I would like there to be three parties since it gives more choice than having just two, but at least allows for stability which usually doesn't exist when one has many parties. In many multi-party European countries, the party with the most votes frequently gets less than 30% thus leading to less stability and also meaning each party represents a different niche market rather than a large chunk of the population. Ideally, we would have one party on the right, one in the centre, and one on the left. Instead as Suzuki himself pointed out, it is better to promote environmental policies within the greater scheme of things rather than on its own. I would agree with this and I would make far more sense to have an environmentalist wing within each party rather than its own party. In Britain and the US, all major parties have environmentalists caucuses or wings and this is more likely to bring about change, than from a party that will never form government. Off course with Harper's tight control and dictatorial tendencies, we won't see one form within the Conservative ranks here.

They're off and Running

As expected, Harper asked the governor general to dissolve parliament yesterday and this was done. Interestingly enough I was in Ottawa when this happened on the way back from my trip to Quebec City. Didn't discuss politics with the locals too much so I cannot really comment on the recent spate of polls in terms of what is going on in Quebec. While a week ago, the Liberals looked very competitive with the Tories, the Tories now have a pretty solid lead in the most recent polls with some showing them competitive with the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec and surprisingly ahead in Ontario. However, if the Tories can go from a statistical tie to a large lead in a short time this could easily evaporate so I think trying to predict the outcome is a bit premature at this point. The Conservatives and Liberals both have their advantages and disadvantages. For the Conservatives, the fact this is Harper's third campaign as well as they fact they have plenty of volunteers, which is essential to bringing out the vote are their advantages, however there are a couple of things that could sideswipe them. More deaths in Afghanistan or from the Listerious outbreak (this could be especially bad in Ontario where it brings back memories of Walkerton) are all things that can totally turn things around for them. As for the Liberals, they have undoubtedly had a difficult start and do face many obstacles, however they do have a few positives. The constant Tory attacks on Dion have set the expectations of him so low that he only has to perform half decently. Much like Chretien, but unlike Martin, he has set expectations low and if he does as I expect perform better, this will likely help his numbers. Also Green and NDP voters tend to be less firm in their voting intentions and by a 3-1 margin, they choose the Liberals over the Tories.

As for the other parties, the Bloc Quebecois seems to be in major trouble and will need a real turnaround if they just want to hold the seats they already have. The only advantage they have is they only have to campaign in one province so they can devote more resources to the ridings they think are vulnerable. Still they are this time fighting a two front battle, possibly three front with the Liberals and in a few areas the NDP being their main competitor in the Greater Montreal area, while the Tories being their main competitor elsewhere in the province. The NDP has changed tactics being going after the Tories and ignoring the Liberals. While now may be the best time to supplant the Liberals as the dominate voice for the centre-left, I highly doubt they will succeed. Still attacking the Liberals and ignoring the Tories would probably anger many of their centre-left supporters. The NDP's best chances for gains would come under three scenarios, which are, Harper is polling over 45% and is going to get a majority no matter what, Harper is ahead of the Liberals by enough to guarantee a win, but still well short of the majority mark, or the Liberals pull ahead with at least a 5 point lead. Under both scenarios, there will be little need to strategically vote to block the Tories whereas if the Liberals and Tories are running neck and neck or the Tories are on the cusp of a majority then there might be a need to strategically vote. As for the Green Party, I wouldn't be surprised if they crack the 10% mark, although my guess is they still won't win any seats or very few as their vote is too evenly spread out so even if they get a similiar vote total to the NDP, the NDP vote is more concentrated than the Greens. As for excluding them from the debates, I support this decision since until they either get over 10% of the popular vote or win a seat they should be excluded. Even in countries with proportational representation, many have a minimum threshold of 5%, which the Greens did not get last election and despite polling above that now, their vote is very soft so until they actually do get above that, it makes sense not too. Besides, they would, if anything steal votes more from the Liberals than the Tories.

As I am taking on additional responsibilities in work life now, I will only be doing some limited campaigning on the weekends and blogging a few times a week. I will have more as issues emerge.