Election Predictions
Earlier I said I wouldn't make any predictions until the election gets closer and at this point predicting the outcome is still too early, although every week, I thought I would give a range for each party from the worse case scenario to the best case scenario. Below is the breakdown by region.
Atlantic Canada
This is the one region the Tories have been struggling in. The Liberals are competitive here although it still remains to be seen how well they will do. Likewise the NDP has a golden opportunity to gain based upon the Tory and Liberal mistakes, but whether they will capitalize on this or not remains to be seen.
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
Liberals 4-7 seats (Worse case scenario, hold what they have now, best case scenario sweep the province)
Conservatives 0-3 seats (Worse case scenario lose all three seats while best case scenario hold what they have now).
NDP 0-2 seats (Best case scenario, win both St. John's ridings).
With Danny Williams being very popular and the fact he is campaigning against the Conservatives, I would be extremely surprised if they held the three ridings they currently hold. Fabian Manning's riding is the only riding I think they even have a decent shot at holding.
NOVA SCOTIA
Liberals 5-8 seats (worse case scenario lose West Nova, best case scenario pick up Halifax and South Shore-St. Margaret's)
Conservatives 0-3 seats (Best case scenario, hold the two ridings that have incumbents and pick up West Nova)
NDP 1-4 seats (Worse case scenario lose Halifax, best case scenario pick up South Shore-St. Margaret's and Central Nova)
Green Party 0-1 seats (Win in Central Nova which is possible albeit a long shot)
Independent 1 seat (Bill Casey)
Although the Tories could get shut out of three provinces potentially, I think the chances of them getting shut out of Nova Scotia are pretty low whereas I would not be surprised if they won 0 seats in Newfounland & Labrador and PEI.
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
Liberals 3-4 Seats (Egmont is the only seat that I am not totally certain they will hold, although I think their chances are still better than even)
Conservatives 0-1 seats (Egmont, which is still an uphill battle, although at least possible)
NEW BRUNSWICK
Liberals 2-7 seats (best case scenario, pick up Tobique-Mactaquac, while worse case scenario lose every riding except Beausejour and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe)
Conservatives 2-7 seats (best case scenario, win every riding except Acadie-Bathurst, Beausejour, and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, while worse case scenario lose Tobique-Mactaquac, New Brunswick Southwest and Fundy-Royal are the two safest ridings in Atlantic Canada
NDP 1 seat (Acadie-Bathurst)
If the Tories do make any gains in Atlantic Canada, they are most likely to be in New Brunswick. At this point, I am predicting this will be their best province in terms of their share of the popular vote in Atlantic Canada
Total:
Liberals 14-26 seats
Conservatives 2-14 seats
NDP 2-7 seats
Green party 0-1 seat
Independent 1 seat
Quebec
The Bloc Quebecois has been struggling here and unless they can turn things around, they will likely lose seats. The Tories have had some strong polls putting them at over 30% in the province, but their support is quite soft and may or may not materialize depending on the campaign. The Liberals are largely limited to the island of Montreal and Outaoais region and are dead in the water elsewhere in the province. The NDP has a very good chance at winning at least one seat, but it is unlikely they will have a large breakthrough. Below will be the ridings I am nearly certain each party will win, while the winneable ones are not necessarily ones I think they will win, but at least where the possibility exists. In bold will be potential pick-ups over last time based on how they voted in 2006, not who holds them now.
Bloc Quebecois: Safe Bloc ridings: Rimouski-Temiscouata-Neigette-Les Basques, Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour, Sherbrooke, Shefford, Compton-Stanstead, Brome-Missiquoi, Saint Jean, Chateauguay-St. Constant, Longueil-Pierre Boucher, St. Bruno-St. Hubert, Vercheres-Les Patriotes, Chambly-Borduas, Laurier-Sainte Marie, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Hochelaga-Maissoneuve, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, Marc-Aurele-Fortin, Terrebonne-Blainville, Riviere du Nord, Laurentides-Labelle, Riviere-des-Milles-Iles, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Montcalm, Repentigny, Manicouagan, Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou) 26 seats
Winneable ridings: Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraksa-Riviere-du Loup, Richmond-Arthabaska, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Brossard-La Prairie, Saint Lambert, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber, Papineau, Honore-Mercier, Laval-les Iles, Laval, Alfred-Pellan, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, Pontiac, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Quebec, Louis-Hebert, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles, Beauport-Limoliou, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Roberval-Lac Saint Jean) 58 seats
Liberals: Safe Liberal ridings (Lac Saint Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, La Salle-Emard, Mount Royal, Bourassa, St. Leonard-St. Michel) 8 seats
Winneable ridings: Brossard-La Prairie, Saint Lambert, Jeanne-Le Ber, Ahuntsic, Papineau, Outremont, Westmount-Ville Marie, Honore-Mercier, Laval-les Iles, Laval, Alfred-Pellan, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, Pontiac) 22 seats
Conservatives: Safe Tory ridings (Levis-Bellechasse, Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, Megantic-L'Erable, Beauce, Louis-St. Laurent, Jonquiere-Alma) 6 seats
Winneable ridings: Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup, Richmond-Arthabaska, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Pontiac, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Quebec, Louis-Hebert, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles, Beauport-Limoliou, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Roberval-Lac Saint Jean) 27 seats
NDP: No safe ridings but three winneable ridings (Outremont, Westmount-Ville Marie, and Gatineau)
Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur is re-elected)
Ontario
Prior to the election, the Liberals had a comfortable lead here, but now the Tories are at the very least tied if not ahead. Tory support is consistently been between 30-40%, but Liberal support is a lot less predictable as is Green and NDP support. While the Liberals have a lock on much of the GTA, there are very few safe Liberal ridings outside the GTA. For the Tories they have a lock on most of the rural ridings, but almost every riding with a decent size centre is at least somewhat vulnerable for them. The suburbs, mid sized cities, and mixed/urban rural ridings is where the main battles will be fought. The NDP have a few core ridings, mostly in large urban centres, where their potentials for gains are mostly in Northern Ontario.
Liberals: Safe Liberal ridings (Davenport, Toronto Centre, Don Valley East, Don Valley West, Willowdale, Eglinton-Lawrence, St. Paul's, York South-Weston, York West, York Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough-Rouge River, Pickering-Scarborough East, Markham-Unionville, Thornhill, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Brampton-Springdale, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo, London North Centre, Sudbury, Nippissing-Timiskaming, Ottawa-Vanier, Kingston & the Islands) 34 seats
Winneable ridings: Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina (my riding), Beaches-East York, Whitby-Oshawa, Ajax-Pickering, Oak Ridges-Markham, Newmarket-Aurora, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, Mississauga-Streetsville, Oakville, Halton, Burlington, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, St. Catharines, Welland, Niagara Falls, Simcoe North, Barrie, Guelph, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Brant, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshawe, London West, Sarnia-Lambton, Essex, Kenora, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasking, Nickel Belt, Sault Ste. Marie, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa South, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Peterborough, Northumberland-Quinte West 79 seats
Conservatives: Safe ridings (Durham, York-Simcoe, Niagara West-Glanbrook, Simcoe-Grey, Dufferin-Caledon, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Wellington-Halton Hills, Haldimand-Norfolk, Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Nepean-Carleton, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Prince Edward-Hastings) 22 seats
Winneable Ridings: Oshawa, Whitby-Oshawa, Ajax-Pickering, Oak Ridges-Markham, Newmarket-Aurora, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, Mississauga-Streetsville, Oakville, Halton, Burlington, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Hamilton Mountain, St. Catharines, Welland, Niagara Falls, Simcoe North, Barrie, Guelph, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Brant, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshawe, London West, Sarnia-Lambton, Essex, Kenora, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Peterborough, Northumberland-Quinte West 56 seats
NDP: Safe ridings: (Toronto-Danforth, Hamilton Centre, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West, Timmins-James Bay) 5 seats
Winneable ridings: Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina (my riding ugh!), Beaches-East York, Oshawa, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Welland, London-Fanshawe, Kenora, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Nickel Belt, Sault Ste. Marie, Ottawa Centre 20 seats
Green Party - Guelph is the only riding they have any chance at winning albeit a low chance here
Manitoba
Few accurate polls on this region, although the Tories have a lock most of Rural Manitoba whereas Winnipeg will be a three way race in all likelihood.
Conservatives: Safe ridings (Selkirk-Interlake, Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, Brandon-Souris, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher) 5 seats
Winneable ridings: Winnipeg South, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, Kildonan-St. Paul, Saint Boniface, Winnipeg South Centre, Elmwood-Transcona 11 seats
Liberals: No safe ridings in Manitoba, although I would be very surprised if they actually did get shut out of the province
Winneable ridings: Churchill, Winnipeg South Centre, Saint Boniface, Winnipeg South, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, Kildonan-St. Paul 6 seats
NDP: Safe ridings (Winnipeg Centre and Winnipeg North) 2 seats
Winneable ridings: Churchill, Winnipeg Centre, Winnipeg North, Elmwood-Transcona 4 seats
Saskatchewan
With the Tories dominating much of rural Saskatchewan and every riding having at least a sizeable chunk of rural area, I expect the Tories to win the majority of seats here, although I doubt they will sweep it whereas Alberta there is a better than even chance of pulling off a complete sweep. The NDP may get shut out again, although I wouldn't be surprised if they do win one seat or more.
Conservatives: Safe ridings (Prince Albert, Battlefords-Lloydminster, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville, Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Saskatoon-Humboldt, Blackstrap) 8 seats
Winneable ridings: Every riding except Wascana - 13 seats
Liberals: Wascana is a safe Liberal riding, but beyond that all other ridings will be an uphill battle, although I could see the Liberals regaining Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, so 2 seats at the most.
NDP: Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar is their best bet, although it is very much a possibility they will be shut out of the province for the third time in a row. There are four winneable ridings for them, which are (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Palliser, and Regina-Qu'appelle)
Alberta
Largely ignored in this election as it is pretty much a Conservative fortress. Asides from Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton Centre, the Tories pretty much have a lock on every other riding, meaning a minimum of 26 seats in the province. They could off course and in all probability will sweep the province again. For the NDP, Edmonton-Strathcona is their only hope while Edmonton Centre is the only hope for the Liberals.
British Columbia
The Tories have generally stayed out in front although the size of their lead has varied. With the NDP and Greens being quite strong in BC, there is the potential for vote splitting here even more so than other provinces. The NDP are quite competitive here and in fact are probably more of a threat to the Tories than the Liberals. The Greens could also win a seat here although again not likely. The Liberals are struggling in BC, although I still suspect they should at least hold their ridings in Vancouver and maybe could pick up some in the suburbs.
Conservatives: Safe ridings (Prince George-Peace River, Cariboo-Prince George, Okanagan-Shuswap, Kootenay-Columbia, Okanagan-Coquihalla, Kelowna-Lake Country, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, Delta-Richmond East, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon) 12 seats
Winneable ridings (Skeena-Bulkley Valley, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, British Columbia Southern Interior, Vancouver Island North, Nanaimo-Alberni, Nanaimo-Cowichan, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, North Vancouver, Vancouver-Quadra, New Westminster-Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Richmond, Surrey North, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells) 29 seats
Liberals: Safe ridings (Vancouver South) 1 seat
Winneable ridings: Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, North Vancouver, Vancouver-Quadra, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver-Kingsway, Burnaby-Douglas, Burnaby-New Westminster, Richmond, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells 13 seats
NDP: Safe ridings (Vancouver East) 1 seat
Winneable ridings: Skeena-Bulkley Valley, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, British Columbia Southern Interior, Vancouver Island North, Nanaimo-Alberni, Nanaimo-Cowichan, Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver-Kingsway, Burnaby-Douglas, Burnaby-New Westminster, New Westminster-Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Surrey North, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells 18 seats
Green Party: In all likelihood will win no seats, however both Saanich-Gulf Islands and West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country are ridings that they have the potential to win, so 2 seats at most.
Territories
Liberals 1-3 seats (Definitely Yukon, likely Nunavut, and maybe Western Arctic)
NDP 0-2 seats (Likely Western Arctic, while a remote chance of winning Nunavut)
Conservatives 0-1 seat (Nunavut is the only one of the three they have a reasonable shot at).
Summary
Conservatives 81-179 seats
Liberals 59-152 seats
Bloc Quebecois 26-58 seats
NDP 10-59 seats
Green Party 0-4 seats
Independents 2 seats
So in summary, the Tories could get anything from a stable majority to an outright loss with fewer seats than in 2004. While the seats given here are all the extremes, it is at least a good indication of what is plausible and what is not. The Liberals even in the worse case scenario would almost certainly still remain the official opposition so to those in the NDP who want to displace the Liberals as the official opposition and to those in the Tories who want to see the Liberals disappear it won't happen. By the same token, a Liberal majority appears to be out of the picture, however under the best case scenario they would be close enough that they could easily convince a few members from the opposition to cross the floor and join the party or barring that as long as they don't do anything too stupid, they could probably pass most confidence measures as only 4 members would need to be absent if the speaker is from the opposition while six if the speaker is a Liberal. The Bloc Quebecois will still remain a force, although breaking their record of 54 seats looks increasingly unlikely and if they were to fall below 30 seats, I suspect many would question their usefulness. In the case of the NDP, getting over 50 seats would make them a force to be reckoned with while 10 seats would mean losing their official party status. In the case of the Greens, just winning one seat would be a major breakthrough. In fact, no Green Party member has won a seat in any country that uses First past the post as its electoral system so this would be a first. As the election progresses I will revise these weekly, but only listing the changes, not the whole thing.
Atlantic Canada
This is the one region the Tories have been struggling in. The Liberals are competitive here although it still remains to be seen how well they will do. Likewise the NDP has a golden opportunity to gain based upon the Tory and Liberal mistakes, but whether they will capitalize on this or not remains to be seen.
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
Liberals 4-7 seats (Worse case scenario, hold what they have now, best case scenario sweep the province)
Conservatives 0-3 seats (Worse case scenario lose all three seats while best case scenario hold what they have now).
NDP 0-2 seats (Best case scenario, win both St. John's ridings).
With Danny Williams being very popular and the fact he is campaigning against the Conservatives, I would be extremely surprised if they held the three ridings they currently hold. Fabian Manning's riding is the only riding I think they even have a decent shot at holding.
NOVA SCOTIA
Liberals 5-8 seats (worse case scenario lose West Nova, best case scenario pick up Halifax and South Shore-St. Margaret's)
Conservatives 0-3 seats (Best case scenario, hold the two ridings that have incumbents and pick up West Nova)
NDP 1-4 seats (Worse case scenario lose Halifax, best case scenario pick up South Shore-St. Margaret's and Central Nova)
Green Party 0-1 seats (Win in Central Nova which is possible albeit a long shot)
Independent 1 seat (Bill Casey)
Although the Tories could get shut out of three provinces potentially, I think the chances of them getting shut out of Nova Scotia are pretty low whereas I would not be surprised if they won 0 seats in Newfounland & Labrador and PEI.
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
Liberals 3-4 Seats (Egmont is the only seat that I am not totally certain they will hold, although I think their chances are still better than even)
Conservatives 0-1 seats (Egmont, which is still an uphill battle, although at least possible)
NEW BRUNSWICK
Liberals 2-7 seats (best case scenario, pick up Tobique-Mactaquac, while worse case scenario lose every riding except Beausejour and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe)
Conservatives 2-7 seats (best case scenario, win every riding except Acadie-Bathurst, Beausejour, and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, while worse case scenario lose Tobique-Mactaquac, New Brunswick Southwest and Fundy-Royal are the two safest ridings in Atlantic Canada
NDP 1 seat (Acadie-Bathurst)
If the Tories do make any gains in Atlantic Canada, they are most likely to be in New Brunswick. At this point, I am predicting this will be their best province in terms of their share of the popular vote in Atlantic Canada
Total:
Liberals 14-26 seats
Conservatives 2-14 seats
NDP 2-7 seats
Green party 0-1 seat
Independent 1 seat
Quebec
The Bloc Quebecois has been struggling here and unless they can turn things around, they will likely lose seats. The Tories have had some strong polls putting them at over 30% in the province, but their support is quite soft and may or may not materialize depending on the campaign. The Liberals are largely limited to the island of Montreal and Outaoais region and are dead in the water elsewhere in the province. The NDP has a very good chance at winning at least one seat, but it is unlikely they will have a large breakthrough. Below will be the ridings I am nearly certain each party will win, while the winneable ones are not necessarily ones I think they will win, but at least where the possibility exists. In bold will be potential pick-ups over last time based on how they voted in 2006, not who holds them now.
Bloc Quebecois: Safe Bloc ridings: Rimouski-Temiscouata-Neigette-Les Basques, Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour, Sherbrooke, Shefford, Compton-Stanstead, Brome-Missiquoi, Saint Jean, Chateauguay-St. Constant, Longueil-Pierre Boucher, St. Bruno-St. Hubert, Vercheres-Les Patriotes, Chambly-Borduas, Laurier-Sainte Marie, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Hochelaga-Maissoneuve, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, Marc-Aurele-Fortin, Terrebonne-Blainville, Riviere du Nord, Laurentides-Labelle, Riviere-des-Milles-Iles, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Montcalm, Repentigny, Manicouagan, Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou) 26 seats
Winneable ridings: Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraksa-Riviere-du Loup, Richmond-Arthabaska, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Brossard-La Prairie, Saint Lambert, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber, Papineau, Honore-Mercier, Laval-les Iles, Laval, Alfred-Pellan, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, Pontiac, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Quebec, Louis-Hebert, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles, Beauport-Limoliou, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Roberval-Lac Saint Jean) 58 seats
Liberals: Safe Liberal ridings (Lac Saint Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, La Salle-Emard, Mount Royal, Bourassa, St. Leonard-St. Michel) 8 seats
Winneable ridings: Brossard-La Prairie, Saint Lambert, Jeanne-Le Ber, Ahuntsic, Papineau, Outremont, Westmount-Ville Marie, Honore-Mercier, Laval-les Iles, Laval, Alfred-Pellan, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, Pontiac) 22 seats
Conservatives: Safe Tory ridings (Levis-Bellechasse, Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, Megantic-L'Erable, Beauce, Louis-St. Laurent, Jonquiere-Alma) 6 seats
Winneable ridings: Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup, Richmond-Arthabaska, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Pontiac, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Quebec, Louis-Hebert, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles, Beauport-Limoliou, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Roberval-Lac Saint Jean) 27 seats
NDP: No safe ridings but three winneable ridings (Outremont, Westmount-Ville Marie, and Gatineau)
Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur is re-elected)
Ontario
Prior to the election, the Liberals had a comfortable lead here, but now the Tories are at the very least tied if not ahead. Tory support is consistently been between 30-40%, but Liberal support is a lot less predictable as is Green and NDP support. While the Liberals have a lock on much of the GTA, there are very few safe Liberal ridings outside the GTA. For the Tories they have a lock on most of the rural ridings, but almost every riding with a decent size centre is at least somewhat vulnerable for them. The suburbs, mid sized cities, and mixed/urban rural ridings is where the main battles will be fought. The NDP have a few core ridings, mostly in large urban centres, where their potentials for gains are mostly in Northern Ontario.
Liberals: Safe Liberal ridings (Davenport, Toronto Centre, Don Valley East, Don Valley West, Willowdale, Eglinton-Lawrence, St. Paul's, York South-Weston, York West, York Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough-Rouge River, Pickering-Scarborough East, Markham-Unionville, Thornhill, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Brampton-Springdale, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo, London North Centre, Sudbury, Nippissing-Timiskaming, Ottawa-Vanier, Kingston & the Islands) 34 seats
Winneable ridings: Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina (my riding), Beaches-East York, Whitby-Oshawa, Ajax-Pickering, Oak Ridges-Markham, Newmarket-Aurora, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, Mississauga-Streetsville, Oakville, Halton, Burlington, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, St. Catharines, Welland, Niagara Falls, Simcoe North, Barrie, Guelph, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Brant, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshawe, London West, Sarnia-Lambton, Essex, Kenora, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasking, Nickel Belt, Sault Ste. Marie, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa South, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Peterborough, Northumberland-Quinte West 79 seats
Conservatives: Safe ridings (Durham, York-Simcoe, Niagara West-Glanbrook, Simcoe-Grey, Dufferin-Caledon, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Wellington-Halton Hills, Haldimand-Norfolk, Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Nepean-Carleton, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Prince Edward-Hastings) 22 seats
Winneable Ridings: Oshawa, Whitby-Oshawa, Ajax-Pickering, Oak Ridges-Markham, Newmarket-Aurora, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, Mississauga-Streetsville, Oakville, Halton, Burlington, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Hamilton Mountain, St. Catharines, Welland, Niagara Falls, Simcoe North, Barrie, Guelph, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Brant, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshawe, London West, Sarnia-Lambton, Essex, Kenora, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Peterborough, Northumberland-Quinte West 56 seats
NDP: Safe ridings: (Toronto-Danforth, Hamilton Centre, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West, Timmins-James Bay) 5 seats
Winneable ridings: Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina (my riding ugh!), Beaches-East York, Oshawa, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Welland, London-Fanshawe, Kenora, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Nickel Belt, Sault Ste. Marie, Ottawa Centre 20 seats
Green Party - Guelph is the only riding they have any chance at winning albeit a low chance here
Manitoba
Few accurate polls on this region, although the Tories have a lock most of Rural Manitoba whereas Winnipeg will be a three way race in all likelihood.
Conservatives: Safe ridings (Selkirk-Interlake, Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, Brandon-Souris, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher) 5 seats
Winneable ridings: Winnipeg South, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, Kildonan-St. Paul, Saint Boniface, Winnipeg South Centre, Elmwood-Transcona 11 seats
Liberals: No safe ridings in Manitoba, although I would be very surprised if they actually did get shut out of the province
Winneable ridings: Churchill, Winnipeg South Centre, Saint Boniface, Winnipeg South, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, Kildonan-St. Paul 6 seats
NDP: Safe ridings (Winnipeg Centre and Winnipeg North) 2 seats
Winneable ridings: Churchill, Winnipeg Centre, Winnipeg North, Elmwood-Transcona 4 seats
Saskatchewan
With the Tories dominating much of rural Saskatchewan and every riding having at least a sizeable chunk of rural area, I expect the Tories to win the majority of seats here, although I doubt they will sweep it whereas Alberta there is a better than even chance of pulling off a complete sweep. The NDP may get shut out again, although I wouldn't be surprised if they do win one seat or more.
Conservatives: Safe ridings (Prince Albert, Battlefords-Lloydminster, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville, Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Saskatoon-Humboldt, Blackstrap) 8 seats
Winneable ridings: Every riding except Wascana - 13 seats
Liberals: Wascana is a safe Liberal riding, but beyond that all other ridings will be an uphill battle, although I could see the Liberals regaining Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, so 2 seats at the most.
NDP: Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar is their best bet, although it is very much a possibility they will be shut out of the province for the third time in a row. There are four winneable ridings for them, which are (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Palliser, and Regina-Qu'appelle)
Alberta
Largely ignored in this election as it is pretty much a Conservative fortress. Asides from Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton Centre, the Tories pretty much have a lock on every other riding, meaning a minimum of 26 seats in the province. They could off course and in all probability will sweep the province again. For the NDP, Edmonton-Strathcona is their only hope while Edmonton Centre is the only hope for the Liberals.
British Columbia
The Tories have generally stayed out in front although the size of their lead has varied. With the NDP and Greens being quite strong in BC, there is the potential for vote splitting here even more so than other provinces. The NDP are quite competitive here and in fact are probably more of a threat to the Tories than the Liberals. The Greens could also win a seat here although again not likely. The Liberals are struggling in BC, although I still suspect they should at least hold their ridings in Vancouver and maybe could pick up some in the suburbs.
Conservatives: Safe ridings (Prince George-Peace River, Cariboo-Prince George, Okanagan-Shuswap, Kootenay-Columbia, Okanagan-Coquihalla, Kelowna-Lake Country, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, Delta-Richmond East, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon) 12 seats
Winneable ridings (Skeena-Bulkley Valley, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, British Columbia Southern Interior, Vancouver Island North, Nanaimo-Alberni, Nanaimo-Cowichan, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, North Vancouver, Vancouver-Quadra, New Westminster-Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Richmond, Surrey North, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells) 29 seats
Liberals: Safe ridings (Vancouver South) 1 seat
Winneable ridings: Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, North Vancouver, Vancouver-Quadra, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver-Kingsway, Burnaby-Douglas, Burnaby-New Westminster, Richmond, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells 13 seats
NDP: Safe ridings (Vancouver East) 1 seat
Winneable ridings: Skeena-Bulkley Valley, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, British Columbia Southern Interior, Vancouver Island North, Nanaimo-Alberni, Nanaimo-Cowichan, Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver-Kingsway, Burnaby-Douglas, Burnaby-New Westminster, New Westminster-Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Surrey North, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells 18 seats
Green Party: In all likelihood will win no seats, however both Saanich-Gulf Islands and West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country are ridings that they have the potential to win, so 2 seats at most.
Territories
Liberals 1-3 seats (Definitely Yukon, likely Nunavut, and maybe Western Arctic)
NDP 0-2 seats (Likely Western Arctic, while a remote chance of winning Nunavut)
Conservatives 0-1 seat (Nunavut is the only one of the three they have a reasonable shot at).
Summary
Conservatives 81-179 seats
Liberals 59-152 seats
Bloc Quebecois 26-58 seats
NDP 10-59 seats
Green Party 0-4 seats
Independents 2 seats
So in summary, the Tories could get anything from a stable majority to an outright loss with fewer seats than in 2004. While the seats given here are all the extremes, it is at least a good indication of what is plausible and what is not. The Liberals even in the worse case scenario would almost certainly still remain the official opposition so to those in the NDP who want to displace the Liberals as the official opposition and to those in the Tories who want to see the Liberals disappear it won't happen. By the same token, a Liberal majority appears to be out of the picture, however under the best case scenario they would be close enough that they could easily convince a few members from the opposition to cross the floor and join the party or barring that as long as they don't do anything too stupid, they could probably pass most confidence measures as only 4 members would need to be absent if the speaker is from the opposition while six if the speaker is a Liberal. The Bloc Quebecois will still remain a force, although breaking their record of 54 seats looks increasingly unlikely and if they were to fall below 30 seats, I suspect many would question their usefulness. In the case of the NDP, getting over 50 seats would make them a force to be reckoned with while 10 seats would mean losing their official party status. In the case of the Greens, just winning one seat would be a major breakthrough. In fact, no Green Party member has won a seat in any country that uses First past the post as its electoral system so this would be a first. As the election progresses I will revise these weekly, but only listing the changes, not the whole thing.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 4:41 PM
7 Comments:
Olivia Chow is your MP? My condolences, Miles.
It's funny that on a macro level, things don't look great for the Liberals, yet riding by riding, there are many opportunities for pickups, like in Newfoundland, or ridings of floor-crossers like Vancouver-Kingsway. I also love that a collapse for the Liberals is considered, say, 70 seats as opposed a real collapse like the single digit results in 1993 for some other parties I will not name.
I live in the Oak Ridges-Markham and was surprised to see that it wasn't listed as a safe seat for the Liberals...
Lui Temelkovski has won this riding for the Liberals twice with more than 7,000 votes ahead of the Conservative candidate... and this time around he has a new challenger... who previously ran for the Alliance in a different riding... ok now I REALLY hope this is a safe seat.
You are saying Bichler can take the seat from Martin in Sault Ste. Marie? UM, right. What do you know that I don't?
Talk in the Sault is that Bichler left town with a lot of unpaid debts and greatly enhanced his resume before announcing his desire to be nominated for the candidacy.
Martin, the incumbent and an NDP caucus member, has a proven track record and is a well-known local of many years. Generally, people in the Sault seem satisfied with the way things are and don't seem at all inclined to want a change.
The Conservatives seem to believe they have a shot with Cameron Ross and have thrown some big guns behind him but he has really only been able to muster a few disenchanted elders who want to protect their pensions.
Maybe if the Liberals had fielded a more locally recognized, known and trusted candidate they would have had a shot at unseating Martin but I don't think Bichler will be the man to do it. Then again, he could surprise me.
- IMHO
Goldenhawk - The Liberals have some strongholds that you can run a monkey as a leader and still win and never mind they are now in opposition not government. A collapse like 1993 would have happened last time around if it were to happen not now. Still I agree it is a very good thing that their floor is around 60 as opposed to 2 seats, mind you I suspect in 1993 my floor for the PCs would have been higher than 2 seats.
Merboy - Lui Temelkovski won by 9 points and the Tories were behind by 5 points in Ontario as a whole so if they are five points ahead they would take this. While Markham and Richmond Hill are rock solid Liberal, the riding does include Whitchurch-Stouffville and King and both went solidly Conservative last time around and both are largely rural. I agree Lui Temelkovski will likely hold his seat, but I am not 100% sure of it whereas with John McCallum or Bryon Wilfert.
As for Sault Ste. Marie, the Liberals only lost by four points and lets remember this is held provincially by the Liberals. Now true, not all Provincial Liberal ridings are winneable, but this one is.
I should note, I am taking the best and worse case scenarios so any riding I call for a party, that means I pretty much 100% sure of them winning it.
Hey Miles, I'm glad you think Don Valley West will go Liberal. I'd have thought the same too, seeing how provincially we kicked the leader of the PC Party out on his duff by several thousand votes. I'm not so sure this time, there's a lot of Conservative signs up in the wealthier part of the riding. I guess the apartment dweller vote better turn out in force for the new candidate.
Goldenhawk - It is true Don Valley West is amongst one of the more favourable ridings for the Tories in Toronto, but with the NDP and Green Party being very weak, there won't be much of a split on the centre or left. Also last time around there was a whole swath of polls that Harper got around 55%, but then another where he got only 15%. I am guessing the 55% came from the wealthier areas of the riding while the 15% came more from the area near Yonge Street. In fact surprisingly, there are many areas in Toronto that are quite strongly Tory if you look at a poll by poll breakdown, the problem is there are all way too small to make a riding on their own and too scattered to form a common riding unless some serious gerrymandering took place.
I would argue that Burnaby-Doglas isa safe riding for the NDP. One question though, is there any relation between the number of campaign signs posted by each party and the number of seats won. I mean the signs people donèt phone in for, but rather the representatives of the parties go around and plant throughout each riding (the smallest signs with metal posts). There seem to be less of the campaign signs in general around. Is there some law against putting signs in certain places or the number of signs on party is allowed to have.
Post a Comment
<< Home