They're off and Running
As expected, Harper asked the governor general to dissolve parliament yesterday and this was done. Interestingly enough I was in Ottawa when this happened on the way back from my trip to Quebec City. Didn't discuss politics with the locals too much so I cannot really comment on the recent spate of polls in terms of what is going on in Quebec. While a week ago, the Liberals looked very competitive with the Tories, the Tories now have a pretty solid lead in the most recent polls with some showing them competitive with the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec and surprisingly ahead in Ontario. However, if the Tories can go from a statistical tie to a large lead in a short time this could easily evaporate so I think trying to predict the outcome is a bit premature at this point. The Conservatives and Liberals both have their advantages and disadvantages. For the Conservatives, the fact this is Harper's third campaign as well as they fact they have plenty of volunteers, which is essential to bringing out the vote are their advantages, however there are a couple of things that could sideswipe them. More deaths in Afghanistan or from the Listerious outbreak (this could be especially bad in Ontario where it brings back memories of Walkerton) are all things that can totally turn things around for them. As for the Liberals, they have undoubtedly had a difficult start and do face many obstacles, however they do have a few positives. The constant Tory attacks on Dion have set the expectations of him so low that he only has to perform half decently. Much like Chretien, but unlike Martin, he has set expectations low and if he does as I expect perform better, this will likely help his numbers. Also Green and NDP voters tend to be less firm in their voting intentions and by a 3-1 margin, they choose the Liberals over the Tories.
As for the other parties, the Bloc Quebecois seems to be in major trouble and will need a real turnaround if they just want to hold the seats they already have. The only advantage they have is they only have to campaign in one province so they can devote more resources to the ridings they think are vulnerable. Still they are this time fighting a two front battle, possibly three front with the Liberals and in a few areas the NDP being their main competitor in the Greater Montreal area, while the Tories being their main competitor elsewhere in the province. The NDP has changed tactics being going after the Tories and ignoring the Liberals. While now may be the best time to supplant the Liberals as the dominate voice for the centre-left, I highly doubt they will succeed. Still attacking the Liberals and ignoring the Tories would probably anger many of their centre-left supporters. The NDP's best chances for gains would come under three scenarios, which are, Harper is polling over 45% and is going to get a majority no matter what, Harper is ahead of the Liberals by enough to guarantee a win, but still well short of the majority mark, or the Liberals pull ahead with at least a 5 point lead. Under both scenarios, there will be little need to strategically vote to block the Tories whereas if the Liberals and Tories are running neck and neck or the Tories are on the cusp of a majority then there might be a need to strategically vote. As for the Green Party, I wouldn't be surprised if they crack the 10% mark, although my guess is they still won't win any seats or very few as their vote is too evenly spread out so even if they get a similiar vote total to the NDP, the NDP vote is more concentrated than the Greens. As for excluding them from the debates, I support this decision since until they either get over 10% of the popular vote or win a seat they should be excluded. Even in countries with proportational representation, many have a minimum threshold of 5%, which the Greens did not get last election and despite polling above that now, their vote is very soft so until they actually do get above that, it makes sense not too. Besides, they would, if anything steal votes more from the Liberals than the Tories.
As I am taking on additional responsibilities in work life now, I will only be doing some limited campaigning on the weekends and blogging a few times a week. I will have more as issues emerge.
As for the other parties, the Bloc Quebecois seems to be in major trouble and will need a real turnaround if they just want to hold the seats they already have. The only advantage they have is they only have to campaign in one province so they can devote more resources to the ridings they think are vulnerable. Still they are this time fighting a two front battle, possibly three front with the Liberals and in a few areas the NDP being their main competitor in the Greater Montreal area, while the Tories being their main competitor elsewhere in the province. The NDP has changed tactics being going after the Tories and ignoring the Liberals. While now may be the best time to supplant the Liberals as the dominate voice for the centre-left, I highly doubt they will succeed. Still attacking the Liberals and ignoring the Tories would probably anger many of their centre-left supporters. The NDP's best chances for gains would come under three scenarios, which are, Harper is polling over 45% and is going to get a majority no matter what, Harper is ahead of the Liberals by enough to guarantee a win, but still well short of the majority mark, or the Liberals pull ahead with at least a 5 point lead. Under both scenarios, there will be little need to strategically vote to block the Tories whereas if the Liberals and Tories are running neck and neck or the Tories are on the cusp of a majority then there might be a need to strategically vote. As for the Green Party, I wouldn't be surprised if they crack the 10% mark, although my guess is they still won't win any seats or very few as their vote is too evenly spread out so even if they get a similiar vote total to the NDP, the NDP vote is more concentrated than the Greens. As for excluding them from the debates, I support this decision since until they either get over 10% of the popular vote or win a seat they should be excluded. Even in countries with proportational representation, many have a minimum threshold of 5%, which the Greens did not get last election and despite polling above that now, their vote is very soft so until they actually do get above that, it makes sense not too. Besides, they would, if anything steal votes more from the Liberals than the Tories.
As I am taking on additional responsibilities in work life now, I will only be doing some limited campaigning on the weekends and blogging a few times a week. I will have more as issues emerge.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 7:59 PM
4 Comments:
From what I have seen, there has been little interest in the campaign - since the leaders are all not well liked, and the policies are fairly similar overall. The NDP may have the best chance to make gains in my opinion if they can get their base out and away from the Liberals, while the Conservatives have much to worry about with their base staying home since they seem to be running close to the Liberals.
The NDP vote is quite soft so they could certainly increase it, but also lose it just depending on how things go.
As for the Conservative base, I think they will show up as Harper is pretty right wing by Canadian standards. In addition the right wing base is nowhere nearly as strong as in the United States where they make up around 30% of the population, whereas here they only make up about 10% and for every hardcore right winger they gain, they lose usually two centrist voters.
The base is really angry at the government over issues like the Human Rights Commissions and stomping on the abortion debate though. As for your other thought, look at the Ontario election and that showed what happens when the base stays home. Voters don't get fooled easily when the choices are between a fake Liberal party and a real Liberal party - they always go for the real thing. (That also applies on the left when the NDP goes too hard to the center, a la in 1993).
The base is really angry at the government over issues like the Human Rights Commissions and stomping on the abortion debate though
The majority of Canadians may feel human rights commissions have over stepped their boundaries, but it is not a major issue for most. As for the abortion debate, this would turn off far more potential swing voters, never mind most of the right wing base is parts of the country the Tories already hold so getting more votes in ridings they already hold won't do them any good.
I disagree with the Ontario analogy. Bill Davis was quite centrist and did very well in Ontario. John Tory lost not because he was a Red Tory, but because of his promise to fund religious schools. The right wing base in Canada is quite small in comparison to the United States and even if they do stay home, the number of moderates one can pick up can more than offset this. The reality is the hard core right wingers scare the heck out of most Canadians including even many who are right of centre and associating with this group loses far more votes than it gains. Never mind, if you want to see the left and centre, unite behind one party, this is a sure bet way to do it. Also those who are moderate won't stay home, but rather will vote for another party which is more of an loss than someone just not voting at all. For example, if there are 100 hard core right wingers who stay home and the candidate won by 150 votes, the candidate would still win under this circumstance, but if there are 100 moderates and they decide to switch to his or her opponent, then the opponent would win, as the candidate loses a 100 votes, but the opponent picks up 100 votes so a swing of 200 votes instead of 100 votes.
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