Week 1 of Election Wrap Up
Well lots has happened in the first week of the election. During the post I will summarize the various events and give my opinion on each of them. At the very bottom is my election prediction, which is not based on the most recent polls, but rather my gut instinct on how the election will turn out.
Except for the one Ipsos-Reid Poll, it looks like the Liberals are maintaining their lead although somewhat weaker than in the Summer, though the fact they are ahead now puts them in good position to possibly gain seats. The reason for this is when they roll out the attack ads in January, this will likely drive some soft NDP supporter over to the Liberals as well as moderates who were planning to go Conservative. I do hope the temporary Conservative re-bound in BC is temporary. Four terms of Reform/Alliance/Conservative members representing the majority of ridings in BC has done absolutely nothing for our province. If anything it has hurt our province as more people down east see as a bunch right wing rednecks, which clearly British Columbia isn't. The eight Liberal members we have, have done far more in helping the province then the 22 Reform/Alliance/Conservative MPs have over the past twelve years.
Stephen Harper just can't let go of the whole same-sex issue. While I realize he was asked the question, so in some ways he really had no choice, I think this just proves my point that he should have never opposed same-sex marriage in the first place. While Canadians were divided on the issue, like abortion and capital punishment, most Canadians have accepted the decision and want to move onto other issues. His decision to re-open the whole issue certainly won't help him make gains in Ontario and could even cost him seats in British Columbia, which is generally sociall progressive. Even though he may claim the vote was illegitimate since it wasn't a "true free vote", it was a free vote for all Liberals except the cabinet and it was a free vote for Bloc members. Of the cabinet minister, 14 would have had to gone against same-sex marriage, when in reality, it probably only would have been another five had it been a true free vote. Interestingly enough one cabinet minister, Joe Commuzzi resigned over it so if no other cabinet minister resigned over it, I suspect none of the others felt too strong about it. The point I am making is no matter how one spins it, it would have passed parliament. Also 8 out 10 provincial courts have ruled it violates the charter of rights and freedoms, so any bill re-instating the traditional definition of marriage would only take effect in Alberta, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Prince Edward Island unless the notwithstanding clause was invoked, something I like most Canadians clearly oppose.
Gilles Duceppe talks about Quebec having its own sports team. Despite how silly this sounds, I think it goes against the whole idea of Canada being one nation. While he is right England, Scotland, and Wales have their own sports teams at the commonwealth games and World Cup Soccer, at the olympics they all compete under the British banner. In fact there has been talk about North and South Korea competing under one banner in the 2008 olympics in Beijing.
Stephen Harper's plan on the GST will probably be popular and sounds good, although I prefer the Liberal tax cuts. I am certainly not opposed to reducing the GST, but I would prefer an income tax cut as cutting GST only affects those who spend their money. If one wishes to save or invest, they get no benefit from a reduction in the GST. Also considering the amount of revenue it brings in, I am not sure how affordable it is. I think cutting it to 6% is doable, but cutting to 5% could risk going into deficit unless there are spending cuts elsewhere, which I am not opposed to, but Harper should say where he is going to cut and why.
There was a lot of talk of strategic voting. In Saskatchewan, Layton emphasized voting Liberal only means electing Tories. While I generally agree with this statement from a statiscal point of view that had people who were intending to vote NDP had stuck with their vote and not voted Liberal, the NDP likely would have won seats in Saskatchewan. However, as someone who is centre-right, I could never vote NDP in good conscious. On the other hand in Ontario, Buzz Hargove urged those to vote Liberal in ridings where the NDP has no chance at winning, but the Conservatives could win. I am no fan of Buzz Hargove, but as someone who wants to keep the Conservatives out, I have no problem with NDP supporters going Liberal, but in turn I would not vote NDP in a riding the Liberals had no chance at winning, but a Conservative could win as I still prefer the Conservatives over the NDP.
Kim Campbell has stated that the Conservatives are too far to the right on social issues to form government even if people agree with them on economic issues. All I can say is that I couldn't agree more with her. I too support many of the Conservative economic positions, but the reason I am voting Liberal is I cannot stomach their social policies as well as I don't like Stephen Harper. I wouldn't want to have him representing Canada as our prime-minister.
Stephen Harper says he wanted to hire a special prosecutor only to be contradicted by his deputy leader that this cannot be done since it is under provincial jurisdiction. Doesn't surprise me since I know all along that Peter MacKay was kept out of the loop. The only people in Harper's inner circle are members from the Calgary School who have very little real life experience and are bound to give him bad advice. The fact that he doesn't understand the law, not just on this issue, but also on the same-sex issue, clearly shows why he is unfit to be prime-minister
Last but not least is the Health Care issue. I like the idea of setting maximum wait times and agreeing to pay for individuals who go out of the province or even out of the country if they cannot be received in a timely manner. This was actually originally an idea recommended in the Kirby Report, so not exactly a new Conservative idea, although one I support. It certainly would make future supreme court challenges more difficult. At the same time as explained below, I believe individuals should be allowed to pay for medically necessary services if they so choose. The good news is Quebec plans to go ahead and permit the purchase of private health insurance so no matter who wins the election, we will likely to see the development of a parallel private system in Quebec and hopefully in other provinces once Canadians realize the sky won't fall if we allow competition between the public and private systems.
PREDICTION
Lib 136 Con 85 BQ 61 NDP 26
Except for the one Ipsos-Reid Poll, it looks like the Liberals are maintaining their lead although somewhat weaker than in the Summer, though the fact they are ahead now puts them in good position to possibly gain seats. The reason for this is when they roll out the attack ads in January, this will likely drive some soft NDP supporter over to the Liberals as well as moderates who were planning to go Conservative. I do hope the temporary Conservative re-bound in BC is temporary. Four terms of Reform/Alliance/Conservative members representing the majority of ridings in BC has done absolutely nothing for our province. If anything it has hurt our province as more people down east see as a bunch right wing rednecks, which clearly British Columbia isn't. The eight Liberal members we have, have done far more in helping the province then the 22 Reform/Alliance/Conservative MPs have over the past twelve years.
Stephen Harper just can't let go of the whole same-sex issue. While I realize he was asked the question, so in some ways he really had no choice, I think this just proves my point that he should have never opposed same-sex marriage in the first place. While Canadians were divided on the issue, like abortion and capital punishment, most Canadians have accepted the decision and want to move onto other issues. His decision to re-open the whole issue certainly won't help him make gains in Ontario and could even cost him seats in British Columbia, which is generally sociall progressive. Even though he may claim the vote was illegitimate since it wasn't a "true free vote", it was a free vote for all Liberals except the cabinet and it was a free vote for Bloc members. Of the cabinet minister, 14 would have had to gone against same-sex marriage, when in reality, it probably only would have been another five had it been a true free vote. Interestingly enough one cabinet minister, Joe Commuzzi resigned over it so if no other cabinet minister resigned over it, I suspect none of the others felt too strong about it. The point I am making is no matter how one spins it, it would have passed parliament. Also 8 out 10 provincial courts have ruled it violates the charter of rights and freedoms, so any bill re-instating the traditional definition of marriage would only take effect in Alberta, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Prince Edward Island unless the notwithstanding clause was invoked, something I like most Canadians clearly oppose.
Gilles Duceppe talks about Quebec having its own sports team. Despite how silly this sounds, I think it goes against the whole idea of Canada being one nation. While he is right England, Scotland, and Wales have their own sports teams at the commonwealth games and World Cup Soccer, at the olympics they all compete under the British banner. In fact there has been talk about North and South Korea competing under one banner in the 2008 olympics in Beijing.
Stephen Harper's plan on the GST will probably be popular and sounds good, although I prefer the Liberal tax cuts. I am certainly not opposed to reducing the GST, but I would prefer an income tax cut as cutting GST only affects those who spend their money. If one wishes to save or invest, they get no benefit from a reduction in the GST. Also considering the amount of revenue it brings in, I am not sure how affordable it is. I think cutting it to 6% is doable, but cutting to 5% could risk going into deficit unless there are spending cuts elsewhere, which I am not opposed to, but Harper should say where he is going to cut and why.
There was a lot of talk of strategic voting. In Saskatchewan, Layton emphasized voting Liberal only means electing Tories. While I generally agree with this statement from a statiscal point of view that had people who were intending to vote NDP had stuck with their vote and not voted Liberal, the NDP likely would have won seats in Saskatchewan. However, as someone who is centre-right, I could never vote NDP in good conscious. On the other hand in Ontario, Buzz Hargove urged those to vote Liberal in ridings where the NDP has no chance at winning, but the Conservatives could win. I am no fan of Buzz Hargove, but as someone who wants to keep the Conservatives out, I have no problem with NDP supporters going Liberal, but in turn I would not vote NDP in a riding the Liberals had no chance at winning, but a Conservative could win as I still prefer the Conservatives over the NDP.
Kim Campbell has stated that the Conservatives are too far to the right on social issues to form government even if people agree with them on economic issues. All I can say is that I couldn't agree more with her. I too support many of the Conservative economic positions, but the reason I am voting Liberal is I cannot stomach their social policies as well as I don't like Stephen Harper. I wouldn't want to have him representing Canada as our prime-minister.
Stephen Harper says he wanted to hire a special prosecutor only to be contradicted by his deputy leader that this cannot be done since it is under provincial jurisdiction. Doesn't surprise me since I know all along that Peter MacKay was kept out of the loop. The only people in Harper's inner circle are members from the Calgary School who have very little real life experience and are bound to give him bad advice. The fact that he doesn't understand the law, not just on this issue, but also on the same-sex issue, clearly shows why he is unfit to be prime-minister
Last but not least is the Health Care issue. I like the idea of setting maximum wait times and agreeing to pay for individuals who go out of the province or even out of the country if they cannot be received in a timely manner. This was actually originally an idea recommended in the Kirby Report, so not exactly a new Conservative idea, although one I support. It certainly would make future supreme court challenges more difficult. At the same time as explained below, I believe individuals should be allowed to pay for medically necessary services if they so choose. The good news is Quebec plans to go ahead and permit the purchase of private health insurance so no matter who wins the election, we will likely to see the development of a parallel private system in Quebec and hopefully in other provinces once Canadians realize the sky won't fall if we allow competition between the public and private systems.
PREDICTION
Lib 136 Con 85 BQ 61 NDP 26
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 8:35 PM
8 Comments:
Hi Miles,
I think you brought up some interesting points. I agree with your points on Harper and his social issues. On day 1 of the campaign, he brought up same-sex marriage issues and it only reinforced images or perception that they are too far to the right.
Your points about sports... I will write something about this but I do not think Duceppe proposing Team Quebec is a silly idea. (Doesn't mean I agree though)
Also, you can't really compare South/North Korea issue with Quebec/Canada issue. I personally don't like the fact that Koreans are sending one team to the Olympics though.
I am not suggesting the idea of North/South Korea having one team is a good idea, I am only pointing out other countries are going in the opposite direction. I fully agree with your view on same-sex marriage. Since Joyce Murray was a former MLA and is running in your riding, are you considering supporting her.
Miles, I think what you said about BC Conservative MPs making our province look like rednecks and being inefficient is just a cheap shot. First off, of course the 8 Liberal MPs will be more powerful, they're in government. Even though this is a minority government, obviously the MPs in the government caucus are going to look like they will get something done.
Furthermore, while some of the Cosnervative MPs from BC are odd, are the Liberals any better? Hedy Fry has to be one of the dumbest politicians in the House of Commons, her comment about burning crosses in Prince George was absolutely ridiculous. Ujjal Dosanjh isn't so great either, he seemed disappointed this summer that the CMA was practicing free speech and talking about *gasp* a parallel system. Sure, we have people like Randy White and Gurmant Grewal (neither of whom, by the way, are seeking re-election), but are the Liberals any less of an embarassment? To me, the answer is no.
Hey Miles,
I think Joyce Murray is a good candidate. During the last provincial election, I supported her (although I was not in her riding for provincial election) and I thought that she really deserved to be re-elected.
However, that does not mean that she will automatically get my vote in the federal election. I am still undecided.
BC Tory - I am more talking about the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance in general. This is a general image in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada that the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance are a bunch of rednecks. I don't fully agree with that stereotype, but I do believe that it has led to more people in the East stereotyping people in the West as rednecks. I agree they had some good MPs such as Chuck Cadman, Val Meredith, Keith Martin (now a Liberal), James Moore, and John Cummins. They have also had some embarassing ones as you mentioned, but I would add Sharon Hayes and Bob Rigma and Darrel Stinson. I agree Hedy Fry is somewhat of a maverick MP, I live in her riding, but the Tories have no chance at winning this riding, and if not Hedy Fry, then it is Svend Robinson, so take your pick. Ujjal Dosanjh was simply giving the government's view on a parallel private system, but really they've lost the battle on that issue due to the Supreme Court ruling so we are going to get one, one way or another. My final concern is this East vs. West. I am sick and tired of the East going one way and the West going another. This only does more to divide the country rather than unite it.
Every party has its embarrassing MPs I would think, as you said. As for East vs. West, it is a problem, but both parts need to stop downtalking each other. Westerners must stop seeing the East as corrupt-government lovers, and the East must stop seeing the West as rednecks. Not all people think this way; however, enough do to make it a problem. We cannot change, however, how they vote. They will just have to make that choice themselves.
I agree that the other sides need to stop downtalking each other. For starters, there were 31 Conservative MPs elected in the East last time while 14 Liberal MPs from the West (17 if you include the three territories). My reason for going Liberal has more to do with that I feel the Conservatives are too right wing for my tastes. I generally lean to the right since I did vote for the BC Liberals last provincial election.
Greg P - My point was Harper made a big mistake to oppose same-sex marriage in the first place. I argued back in February that this would harm his chances at winning the next election and it looks like I am right. I realize there was nothing he could do about it now, but he should have never opposed it in the first place.
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