Week 2 Election Wrap up
I'll be away next week in Edmonton for the weekend to visit some family and then I will be in Calgary to turn in my report for Western Financial Group, while I also have a few interviews. When I get back, I hope to be able to give an idea of how things are viewed in Alberta. So far here is my take on a host of major issues.
First on the polls, despite the attention being on Stephen Harper and most of his announcements receiving positive feedback, the Liberals still appear to be widening their lead. The Tories seem to be stuck in the high 20s to low 30s, so there numbers aren't really changing much suggesting they have a good base locked up, but the remaining swing voters won't vote Conservative no matter what Stephen Harper does or says. On the other hand many NDP voters appear to be going over to the Liberals out of fear the recent announcements could lead to a Conservative victory. It is early on, but I think a Liberal majority, although not likely is definitely possible.
The childcare debate has certainly heated up. While I still plan to vote Liberal, I would have to say that on this issue, I happen to agree with the Tories. I like most Canadians never agree wholly with any one party, but vote for which party I agree with on the greatest number of issues. According to a political test I agree with the Liberals on 9 issues, Conservatives 8 issues, and NDP 7 issues. My reason for preferring the Conservative plan is generally don't support the idea of the state knows best. As someone who often didn't fit in, I know they each child has their own unique learning circumstances so letting the parents decide makes more sense than the govenrnment. In addition there are increasing numbers of shift workers who don't work 9-5, so I think having greater flexibility. However, it is important to remember childcare is provincial jurisdiction so provinces can opt-out if they wish. I think the major problem here is the day care lobby who are an odd alliance of business and unions have pushed hard for institutionalized day care, which benefits them. That is not to say I think Harper's plan is great. I think $100/month will do nothing for low-income families, so a better system would be a voucher system where low-income people are fully re-imbursed for childcare expenses, while higher income people have to pay the full cost.
Other big news is the handgun ban announced today by Paul Martin. Certainly something needs to be done about gun crimes, but I am not so sure a ban on handguns is the best way to go. Already it is extremely difficult to purchase a hand gun legally in Canada, so as many others have pointed out most criminals get their hand guns illegally and will continue to do so regardless of hand gun laws. Besides provinces can opt out, which I am sure ones like the Prairies where it won't be popular will choose to do so and target shooters will be exempt from the ban. That is not to say there isn't merit in the Liberal plan. Their plan to beef up border security and give tougher sentences for illegal use of firearms is definitely a step in the right direction. Another side issue is the NRA has offered to help elect a Conservative government. Besides the fact I don't like American lobby groups regardless of political persuasion sticking their nose in Canadian affairs, the fact Harper hasn't tried to distance himself from them should be of concern. If I were the Liberals I would point out all the right wing American groups be it the religious right, NRA, and neo-con newspapers like the Washington Post endorsing Harper. Most Canadians despise George W. Bush so the more Martin can do to connnect Harper to Bush the better the chance of him winning a majority.
Finally there is the climate change conference. I agree climate change is an important issue and unlike the Conservatives I do accept the science behind global warming. That being said I don't believe global warming is caused solely by man, rather it is a combination of the natural cycle in temperatures as well as man made. Also another misconception is global warming means warmer temperatures everywhere, which is also false. In fact in Europe, global warming would mean colder winters as the Arctic snowpacks melt, the Gulf Stream would weaken, therefore meaning less of a moderating influence from the ocean, which allows for the mild winters in Europe. I do agree we have to do something about climate change, but goals must be realistic in balancing environmental protection and a strong economy. If goals are unrealistic we will fail. As for Martin's comments about the United States, while I think attacking the US is quite popular in Canada (I fully understand, I hate Bush myself and I am very unhappy about the direction the US is going in), I don't know how productive it is. That being said, the Bush administration has an atrocious record on the environment so trying to get them on side is really a waste of time.
Predictions: Liberals 143, Conservatives 82 Bloc Quebecois 61 NDP 25
First on the polls, despite the attention being on Stephen Harper and most of his announcements receiving positive feedback, the Liberals still appear to be widening their lead. The Tories seem to be stuck in the high 20s to low 30s, so there numbers aren't really changing much suggesting they have a good base locked up, but the remaining swing voters won't vote Conservative no matter what Stephen Harper does or says. On the other hand many NDP voters appear to be going over to the Liberals out of fear the recent announcements could lead to a Conservative victory. It is early on, but I think a Liberal majority, although not likely is definitely possible.
The childcare debate has certainly heated up. While I still plan to vote Liberal, I would have to say that on this issue, I happen to agree with the Tories. I like most Canadians never agree wholly with any one party, but vote for which party I agree with on the greatest number of issues. According to a political test I agree with the Liberals on 9 issues, Conservatives 8 issues, and NDP 7 issues. My reason for preferring the Conservative plan is generally don't support the idea of the state knows best. As someone who often didn't fit in, I know they each child has their own unique learning circumstances so letting the parents decide makes more sense than the govenrnment. In addition there are increasing numbers of shift workers who don't work 9-5, so I think having greater flexibility. However, it is important to remember childcare is provincial jurisdiction so provinces can opt-out if they wish. I think the major problem here is the day care lobby who are an odd alliance of business and unions have pushed hard for institutionalized day care, which benefits them. That is not to say I think Harper's plan is great. I think $100/month will do nothing for low-income families, so a better system would be a voucher system where low-income people are fully re-imbursed for childcare expenses, while higher income people have to pay the full cost.
Other big news is the handgun ban announced today by Paul Martin. Certainly something needs to be done about gun crimes, but I am not so sure a ban on handguns is the best way to go. Already it is extremely difficult to purchase a hand gun legally in Canada, so as many others have pointed out most criminals get their hand guns illegally and will continue to do so regardless of hand gun laws. Besides provinces can opt out, which I am sure ones like the Prairies where it won't be popular will choose to do so and target shooters will be exempt from the ban. That is not to say there isn't merit in the Liberal plan. Their plan to beef up border security and give tougher sentences for illegal use of firearms is definitely a step in the right direction. Another side issue is the NRA has offered to help elect a Conservative government. Besides the fact I don't like American lobby groups regardless of political persuasion sticking their nose in Canadian affairs, the fact Harper hasn't tried to distance himself from them should be of concern. If I were the Liberals I would point out all the right wing American groups be it the religious right, NRA, and neo-con newspapers like the Washington Post endorsing Harper. Most Canadians despise George W. Bush so the more Martin can do to connnect Harper to Bush the better the chance of him winning a majority.
Finally there is the climate change conference. I agree climate change is an important issue and unlike the Conservatives I do accept the science behind global warming. That being said I don't believe global warming is caused solely by man, rather it is a combination of the natural cycle in temperatures as well as man made. Also another misconception is global warming means warmer temperatures everywhere, which is also false. In fact in Europe, global warming would mean colder winters as the Arctic snowpacks melt, the Gulf Stream would weaken, therefore meaning less of a moderating influence from the ocean, which allows for the mild winters in Europe. I do agree we have to do something about climate change, but goals must be realistic in balancing environmental protection and a strong economy. If goals are unrealistic we will fail. As for Martin's comments about the United States, while I think attacking the US is quite popular in Canada (I fully understand, I hate Bush myself and I am very unhappy about the direction the US is going in), I don't know how productive it is. That being said, the Bush administration has an atrocious record on the environment so trying to get them on side is really a waste of time.
Predictions: Liberals 143, Conservatives 82 Bloc Quebecois 61 NDP 25
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 9:12 PM
4 Comments:
It is only one day, I would wait for a week before commenting on this. This is within the margin of error so lets see the numbers for the next few days.
Plus now Kim Campbell has come on board and is openly rooting for a CPC victory, as seen on the CTV Election Blog.
Well of past PC leaders, that means 3 (Mulroney, Campbell, and MacKay) support the new party, while 1 (Joe Clark) opposes the new party and another Jean Charest is neutral, mainly due to the fact the Quebec Liberals are a coalition of federalist from the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP.
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