Early Results
Now that the first day of the Liberal super weekend has been completed the results are as follows
1. Ignatieff 28.9%
2. Dion 17.3%
3. Rae 16.1%
4. Kennedy 13%
5. Brison 9.2%
6. Dryden 6.8%
7. Volpe 4.1%
8. Hall Findlay 2.3%
Undeclared 2.3%
82/465 meetings held so far, so with just under 20% completed, it looks like Ignatieff will have a healthy lead on the first ballot, however, he still has a long ways to go before he can clinch victory, meaning he will need to pick up support from other contenders. I am pleased to see Dion to do so well. I think with the current numbers, he just might be able to pull it off, but considering that Rae and Kennedy or nipping at his heels he could fall to fourth by the end of the weekend and likewise depending on how the lower candidates go after dropping off earlier ballots, its much too early to say what his chances are.
I am glad to see Rae in third. While I think he has a lot of support from certain segments of the party, I think worries about his electability, may explain why he is not doing as well as some earlier polls suggested. In fact in Ontario, he is down at only 12.3% so far. Kennedy is trailing in fourth, but is still very much in the race.
I am surprised to see Brison do as well as he has. While he has little chance at winning, he may very well do better than some expected. For Dryden obviously a disappointing start and looking at the numbers now, I don't think there is any plausible way of him winning even if he does better tomorrow and Sunday. That means the race is down to four: Ignatieff, Dion, Kennedy, and Rae.
I am glad to see Volpe at only 4.1%. This means he thankfully won't be able to play kingmaker. The fact the guy has any support is simply astounding to me. While I would have liked to see Martha Hall Findlay do a little better, the numbers are not unexpected.
I'll have more on the results tomorrow night.
1. Ignatieff 28.9%
2. Dion 17.3%
3. Rae 16.1%
4. Kennedy 13%
5. Brison 9.2%
6. Dryden 6.8%
7. Volpe 4.1%
8. Hall Findlay 2.3%
Undeclared 2.3%
82/465 meetings held so far, so with just under 20% completed, it looks like Ignatieff will have a healthy lead on the first ballot, however, he still has a long ways to go before he can clinch victory, meaning he will need to pick up support from other contenders. I am pleased to see Dion to do so well. I think with the current numbers, he just might be able to pull it off, but considering that Rae and Kennedy or nipping at his heels he could fall to fourth by the end of the weekend and likewise depending on how the lower candidates go after dropping off earlier ballots, its much too early to say what his chances are.
I am glad to see Rae in third. While I think he has a lot of support from certain segments of the party, I think worries about his electability, may explain why he is not doing as well as some earlier polls suggested. In fact in Ontario, he is down at only 12.3% so far. Kennedy is trailing in fourth, but is still very much in the race.
I am surprised to see Brison do as well as he has. While he has little chance at winning, he may very well do better than some expected. For Dryden obviously a disappointing start and looking at the numbers now, I don't think there is any plausible way of him winning even if he does better tomorrow and Sunday. That means the race is down to four: Ignatieff, Dion, Kennedy, and Rae.
I am glad to see Volpe at only 4.1%. This means he thankfully won't be able to play kingmaker. The fact the guy has any support is simply astounding to me. While I would have liked to see Martha Hall Findlay do a little better, the numbers are not unexpected.
I'll have more on the results tomorrow night.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 11:20 PM
2 Comments:
82/465 meetings held so far, so with just under 20% completed, it looks like Ignatieff will have a healthy lead on the first ballot, however, he still has a long ways to go before he can clinch victory
If these numbers stick, Iggy will lose for sure.
The only other candidate I can see endorsing him is Brison. Add the two together at this point and you get 38.1%, a long long way from a majority.
That leaves Rae, Dion, or possibly Kennedy as the potential winners. And needless to say, I'm hoping Rae will pull it off.
Not necessarily. When Bevilacqua, Bennett, and Fry dropped out and endorsed Rae, the majority of their backed went over to Ignatieff as well as he picked up two MPs who endorsed Joe Volpe earlier on, so he does have room for growth. Although you are right that certainly Dion or Kennedy could win and in fact I hope one of those two as opposed to Rae win as I think either of those two could beat Stephen Harper.
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