Tories Sliding Poll Numbers
Now that SES has come out with a poll confirming the Tories are sliding, I think it is pretty safe to say the two parties are closed to tie despite the Liberals being leaderless. The SES numbers are 34% Conservatives and 32% Liberals. My view is that people haven't so much forgiven the Liberals as many of those who previously voted Liberal but voted Conservative in 2006 realize that the Liberals for all their faults still did a better job than the Conservatives. I am not ready to pop open the champagne bottles yet since a lot can happen between now and the next election, but I feel the Liberals have a better chance than the Tories of winning the next election. If the Tories wish to displace the Liberals as the natural governing party in the 21st century, they need to be less ideological and more pragmatic and that won't happen as long as Harper or someone from the Alliance wing leads the party. Harper hasn't made a lot of radical changes, but almost every area he has touched, the decisions have been highly ideological, which leads me to believe a Harper government for any length of time would be bad for Canada. Also the fact he runs it as a one man show is another major mistake as they are many strong members of caucus who could make up for Harper's deficiencies, but his control freak attitude ensures he gets his way. The sooner he is gone as leader the better for Canada and the better for the Conservative Party I might add. Even though I am not a Conservative right now I would rather have two good choices, than be stuck with one party by default.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 3:11 PM
13 Comments:
Go Liberals Go!
Looks good so far, but lets not give up. My goal is that we have a 10 point lead by election day since that will make a majority possible, but also act as a strong cushion against any possible mistakes.
I completely agree with you there, Miles. However, I believe the latest SES poll makes all Canadian Liberals comfortable. The Angus Reid poll has dictated that the Liberals and the Conservatives are quite close.
I think the Liberals are in a very good spot. I am simply saying we need to keep up the momentum, not lose it.
I think the party should take advantage in the next week building up to the convention to build momentum and seek out involvement from Canadians outside of the party.
For example, have an open dialogue on Canada's future. The party is already planning on having an e-town hall meeting for party member to debate on the party's constitution.
I fully agree the Liberals should reach out to non-partisan. As the Tories spend most of their time pandering to their base, we need to take advantage but reaching out to soft liberal voters and potential liberal voters.
10 point lead makes a majority possible, seems kinda slim
Opinionater777 - A Liberal majority is not likely, but at least is possible whereas 6 months ago most saw it is impossible.
Also it depends on who becomes the leader of our party because it could endanger us for retaking government.
Oh. Miles. Your on my blogroll now.
Miles,
As a Conservative, I think you are bang on. Harper has proven to be his own worst enemy as regards elevating the party's numbers in the polls.
The gentleman has incredible "turn-off" potential as he continues to alienate a large part of the electorate.
You guys should be crowing. First, the upcoming inevitable convention bounce and then the crystalizing of the three-party alliance that is likely to sink the CPC before the spring budget.
If Harper can reverse this menacing trend, he is the greatest political genius of our generation. Forgive me if somehow I doubt he can turn this unfortunate situation around.
The Wizard - I think you are bang on. Harper's biggest mistakes are two-fold
1. He spends more time appealing to his base, then to the swing voters. As we saw in last week's US midterms you win by appealing to swing voters not your base.
2. His hatred of the media is backfiring on him since whenever you make changes you need to sell it to the public, and he is not doing it.
I am careful not to underestimate him, but I do think the Liberals are in very good shape. I suspect living in Ottawa might be a better place to judge since it is neither a hardcore conservative or liberal city whereas Toronto will go Liberal no matter what.
I would say don't underestimate Harper. Anyone who brought himself from the brink of political suicide to win an election deserves some credit in that regard. Thus, he may pull it off again, but that cannot be seen until the Liberals actually have a leader.
Personally, I think the one person Conservatives fear the most is Stephane Dion. He wins, the Tories could face an uphill battle.
BC Tory - I agree Stephane Dion would be the toughest to beat for the Tories, with Gerard Kennedy also being a tough foe. Despite the fact polls say Ignatieff and Rae have the best chance at beating Harper, I suspect Harper would have an easier time against either of them, although I think he could still lose the next election even if they win.
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