Update on Alberta Results
Well the Alberta results are in and Jim Dinning has a slim first place lead with only 30%, Ted Morton in a close second at 26%, and Ed Stelmach in third at 15%. The remaining candidates will all be dropped off and so far Dave Hancock has gone over to Ed Stelmach while Gary MacPherson has endorsed Jim Dinning. So it looks like next week we will be finding out both Canada's possible (or I would say likely) next prime-minister and Alberta's next premier. This is off course assuming Alberta doesn't go to a third ballot, which if I were Ed Stelmach, I would be hoping for that since he pretty much needs it to go to a third ballot to win. Obviously I am still hoping for Jim Dinning, but Ed Stelmach is a good choice too. Both are moderates who want to move Alberta forward and deal with the challenges of the future such as environmental sustainability, education, health care, and maintaining strong fiscal discipline. Ted Morton on the other hand wants to fight past battles such as repealing SSM, trashing the Charter, and building firewalls around Alberta. Ted Morton would really give Alberta a bad image in the rest of Canada, at the same time he just might be what the Alberta Liberals need if they want to win. I still think he would beat the Alberta Liberals, but if they were willing to change their name and get a more populist leader, I think he could be beaten. My suggestion is if Morton wins, call themselves the Alberta Moderates.
That being said I don't think Ted Morton will win for two reasons
1. The Cold weather likely hurt turnout and since Morton voters are more motivated that is probably why they did better than expected.
2. People can still join the Alberta PCs including members of other parties so I think the thought of Morton winning might terrify enough Liberals, NDP, and Greens to join the PCs to stop him.
Now I should note I oppose people from other parties joining parties to influence the outcome, but when one considers Morton's support has come largely from the Alberta Alliance, this goes both ways. Even though there is no way of telling what someone's views are when they sign up, I do think there should be a cutoff well before the first ballot, one should have to sign up themselves not by someone else, and should prohibit anyone who is a member of another provincial party from signing up.
That being said I don't think Ted Morton will win for two reasons
1. The Cold weather likely hurt turnout and since Morton voters are more motivated that is probably why they did better than expected.
2. People can still join the Alberta PCs including members of other parties so I think the thought of Morton winning might terrify enough Liberals, NDP, and Greens to join the PCs to stop him.
Now I should note I oppose people from other parties joining parties to influence the outcome, but when one considers Morton's support has come largely from the Alberta Alliance, this goes both ways. Even though there is no way of telling what someone's views are when they sign up, I do think there should be a cutoff well before the first ballot, one should have to sign up themselves not by someone else, and should prohibit anyone who is a member of another provincial party from signing up.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 10:01 AM
6 Comments:
The race for the leadership of the Alberta PCs is now just that, a sprint to the finish. And after Saturday's vote, the choices have solidified somewhat.
We can either choose the candidate of the status quo, the candidate who surrounded himself with the usual well-heeled, backroom and corporate insiders who will stay the current course.
Or we can opt for the candidate of the past we never had, the candidate who curries favour only with those who thinks as he does that we should become narrow-minded, inward and isolated from the any influences he deems are dangerous or troublesome.
But there is clearly now a third option.
Ed Stelmach represents all that is good about all of Alberta and all Albertans -- rural and urban; newcomers to Wild Rose Country and those descendants of our proud pioneer heritage; those enjoying the benefits of the Alberta Advantage and those still struggling to take their place.
Ed has taken the time to look at all the issues -- economic, social and political. He knows Alberta's future promise rides not on defining winners and losers, insiders and outsiders, who's for us or against us, but rather on what unites us all in a diverse, modern province and what makes us stronger.
To the writer of the blog. How praytel does this go to a third ballot? Read the rules.....your intelligence reflects who you are supporting.
Icerider - Ed Stelmach is a good choice and if not Dinning I would rather he won than Morton. The problem is I don't know a lot about him.
Anonymous - If no one gets above 50% on the second ballot, how can they really choose a leader is my question.
I find Dinning an unacceptable choice mostly since he's abandoned politics for a decade and now feels that he should go straight for the top job. Morton would be an uncomfortable choice (better than Dinning) due to his "firewall" ideas but quite frankly Klein investigated such policies as well. Now Ed Stelmach. This is exciting since it looks like he will come up the middle between the 2 leaders and he would seem to be the ideal choice. I'm not PC since I've thought that they're yesterday's news but Ed Stelmach could make me reconsider. His enviro policy so far is quite weak though but so is Mortons.
If no one gets above 50% on the second ballot, how can they really choose a leader is my question.
Single, transferable ballot. You vote for your first and second choice.
If no one gets 50% +1, then the third place finisher is dropped and his votes are assigned according to the voter's second choice.
Too bad they don't do this in real elections!!
Bob's ur Uncle
I am not a fan of STV, although I would consider supporting IRV. At the very least this would ensure all those elected do have the support of the majority of their constituents not just a plurality, but don't count on coming anytime soon since it is too much of a gamble for any mainstream party since they have no way of knowing where people will park their second place votes. In fact in BC, the Liberals and Conservatives in 1952 created this system to stop the CCF from winning hoping they would choose each other as their first and second choice. Instead the upstart Social Credit was the second choice for most and they ended up taking over as the dominant pro-free enterprise party and permanately destroying the Conservatives and putting the Liberals in the wilderness for 40 years.
Post a Comment
<< Home