First Ballot Results and Subsequent Events
Well the first ballot results are in and three have now dropped off and gone to other candidates so here is my take.
Martha Hall Findlay: She didn't get a lot of support, but she impressed many people so I am thrilled at her decision to back Dion. I know not all her delegates will follow, but I feel this a big moral boost. Hopefully Dion can convince Dryden to support him after the second ballot results come in.
Joe Volpe: No surprise here, that he went to Bob Rae, but considering what a slimeball the guy is, I would actually rather not have his support than have his. This will boost Rae in terms of delegates, but I am almost positive the Conservatives will use this in their attack ads next election if Rae should win. Hopefully if Rae drops off before the final ballot and Dion is still on, Volpe doesn't go to Dion, although as long as Dion doesn't go out of his way to get Volpe's support and Volpe comes on his own will I am fine.
Scott Brison: He goes to Bob Rae, which although would seem surprising on the surface when you consider their political histories, I think Brison is attracted to whoever will be the most aggressive against Stephen Harper, who I know he absolutely despises, so it would make sense he would choose Rae. He did release his delegates so while I think Rae will get the greatest number, they will also go to other camps too.
FIRST BALLOT RESULTS
A huge disappointment for Ignatieff since he really needed to be above 30% if not 35% to remain the likely winner. He can still pull it off, but unless there is major improvement on the second ballot, he will be facing an uphill battle. Bob Rae neither did well nor poorly so we will have to wait for the second ballot to see whether he has momentum or not. Stephane Dion was probably the biggest winner here since he moved up to third although only by two votes. Gerard Kennedy may have not lost much, but falling from third to fourth psychologically is not good for that team.
Anyways I will be seeing the sights and sounds of Montreal today and taking a late train back to Toronto, so my next blog will probably be on the final results.
Martha Hall Findlay: She didn't get a lot of support, but she impressed many people so I am thrilled at her decision to back Dion. I know not all her delegates will follow, but I feel this a big moral boost. Hopefully Dion can convince Dryden to support him after the second ballot results come in.
Joe Volpe: No surprise here, that he went to Bob Rae, but considering what a slimeball the guy is, I would actually rather not have his support than have his. This will boost Rae in terms of delegates, but I am almost positive the Conservatives will use this in their attack ads next election if Rae should win. Hopefully if Rae drops off before the final ballot and Dion is still on, Volpe doesn't go to Dion, although as long as Dion doesn't go out of his way to get Volpe's support and Volpe comes on his own will I am fine.
Scott Brison: He goes to Bob Rae, which although would seem surprising on the surface when you consider their political histories, I think Brison is attracted to whoever will be the most aggressive against Stephen Harper, who I know he absolutely despises, so it would make sense he would choose Rae. He did release his delegates so while I think Rae will get the greatest number, they will also go to other camps too.
FIRST BALLOT RESULTS
A huge disappointment for Ignatieff since he really needed to be above 30% if not 35% to remain the likely winner. He can still pull it off, but unless there is major improvement on the second ballot, he will be facing an uphill battle. Bob Rae neither did well nor poorly so we will have to wait for the second ballot to see whether he has momentum or not. Stephane Dion was probably the biggest winner here since he moved up to third although only by two votes. Gerard Kennedy may have not lost much, but falling from third to fourth psychologically is not good for that team.
Anyways I will be seeing the sights and sounds of Montreal today and taking a late train back to Toronto, so my next blog will probably be on the final results.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 7:16 AM
4 Comments:
it's scary to see Ignatieff in first place after the first ballot
Opinionater777 - He has limited room for growth. He has a good solid 30% who support him, but not much more.
Grampa-speak: Have read your post-leadership comments [both Federal and Alberta] We are happy with Dion as a person but wish the standard for Francophones to speak English was as high as the standard set for English speakers to speak French. As to his leadership we can only wait to see if he becomes Prime Minister. Frankly I don't care as long as we get honest, intelligent Government. Contrary to you I do think Harper has fulfilled the promises he made with Income trusts the glaring exception. Your Dad can explain the fallout from that better than I. At least he got it done without a leak. So far as the vote on SSM I feel sure he knew it would fail but it would get the Rightous Right in his Caucus off his back. I think the "Nation within a Nation" was not thought out and may come back to haunt us. In general he has accomplished more in 10 Mos. than Chretien did in 10 years and done less harm than Trudeau did in his average day. Alberta-wise we are delighted with the outcome [for several reasons]. Also we got the unique chance to vote for our own Premier directly, which Beryl, Bob and I did . Continuing good fortune.
Dion's English is actually quite good, he just has a really strong accent. I can barely understand the Irish prime-minister who has English as his first language and likewise I can barely understand our fisheries minister who is from Newfoundland and is also an Anglophone.
I think you are right under both Harper and Dion you will have honest and intelligent governments as regardless of what one thinks of either of them, both are driven by strong principles not raw power.
As for income trust, I think once Bell and Telus promised to convert they really had no choice but to break their promise. Income trusts were just becoming a tax loophole for big corporations not to pay tax. It will hurt the Tories amongst wealthy voters, but might help them amongst lower to middle income voters who aren't likely to have too much sympathy when people with money complain. On SSM I agree, I just would rather it was not revisited, but at least I am glad the issue is put to rest for good.
As for what Harper has accomplished, I guess it depends on perspective. Chretien did a lot in his early years and I think was a good PM in his first term, but got progressively worse the longer he was in power. As for Trudeau, he did lots alright, although many would argue including myself most of it was bad rather than good. In fact one of my Tory friends, said Harper was a Trudeau of the right in terms of his style of governing and his intelligence.
In the case of Alberta, I would have been happy with either Dinning or Stelmach, although I think the fact you had two third place candidates come from behind without the backing of the party establishment is definitely a good sign. It says the backroom elites can no longer control political parties like they used to. The Desmarais federally didn't get their candidate in and neither did the Calgary Mafia.
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