Tomorrow's By-elections Whats at Stake
Tomorrow, we will have two by-elections one in Repentigny, which is just east of Montreal and the other in London North Centre. In the case of Repentigny, this is a safe Bloc Quebecois riding so the Bloc should easily hold this. The real question will be who comes in second, while it be the Tories or Liberals.
The other one in London North Centre is most likely to stay Liberal, but it is not a sure thing. The NDP has virtually no chance of winning so the real question is how will they place. The Green Party is running their leader Elizabeth May and although unlikely there is a small chance she could pull off a win. This would be huge if she did since this would totally change the dynamics of the next election much the way Deborah Gray's by-election win for the Reform Party in 1989 did. If the Greens do win, that means they get to be in the next leadership debate. This could have consequences for all parties. As they are perceived by many as being on the left this could hurt the NDP. Since they are roughly the same as the Liberals on social and economic policy but stronger on the environment this could take away their best weapon against the Tories, but also take many Liberal votes away. Likewise it could hurt the Tories just as much as 1/3 of Tories have the Green Party as their second choice and with their weak performance on the environment, you could see many Tories who are dissatisfied with the Tories on the environment, but not comfortable with going Liberal going Green. There is also the Tories who got 29% in the last federal election. I cannot see them going any higher, but if it turns into a four way race, that might be enough to take the riding assuming all the losses are from the Liberals and NDP. However, there are two reasons why I think a Tory win is unlikely.
1. By-elections are usually a referendum on the current government so those opposed to the government are generally more likely to show up than those who support it.
2. Diane Haskett is a strong social conservative who got in trouble with the Ontario Human Rights Commission when London's mayor, so her views might sell well in the neighbouring rural ridings, but she is probably too conservative for London.
My hope is that the Liberal candidate Glen Pearson wins. Besides his remarkable contributions to the community, I believe this is the only effective way of sending a clear message to Harper. The Green Party would only have one seat so without a caucus and official party status they couldn't do much. On the other hand a Liberal win would send a message to Harper that Londoners are not happy with his performance to date. As attractive as the Greens might be, I still believe the Liberals are the right choice for London North Centre.
The other one in London North Centre is most likely to stay Liberal, but it is not a sure thing. The NDP has virtually no chance of winning so the real question is how will they place. The Green Party is running their leader Elizabeth May and although unlikely there is a small chance she could pull off a win. This would be huge if she did since this would totally change the dynamics of the next election much the way Deborah Gray's by-election win for the Reform Party in 1989 did. If the Greens do win, that means they get to be in the next leadership debate. This could have consequences for all parties. As they are perceived by many as being on the left this could hurt the NDP. Since they are roughly the same as the Liberals on social and economic policy but stronger on the environment this could take away their best weapon against the Tories, but also take many Liberal votes away. Likewise it could hurt the Tories just as much as 1/3 of Tories have the Green Party as their second choice and with their weak performance on the environment, you could see many Tories who are dissatisfied with the Tories on the environment, but not comfortable with going Liberal going Green. There is also the Tories who got 29% in the last federal election. I cannot see them going any higher, but if it turns into a four way race, that might be enough to take the riding assuming all the losses are from the Liberals and NDP. However, there are two reasons why I think a Tory win is unlikely.
1. By-elections are usually a referendum on the current government so those opposed to the government are generally more likely to show up than those who support it.
2. Diane Haskett is a strong social conservative who got in trouble with the Ontario Human Rights Commission when London's mayor, so her views might sell well in the neighbouring rural ridings, but she is probably too conservative for London.
My hope is that the Liberal candidate Glen Pearson wins. Besides his remarkable contributions to the community, I believe this is the only effective way of sending a clear message to Harper. The Green Party would only have one seat so without a caucus and official party status they couldn't do much. On the other hand a Liberal win would send a message to Harper that Londoners are not happy with his performance to date. As attractive as the Greens might be, I still believe the Liberals are the right choice for London North Centre.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 5:20 PM
6 Comments:
The greens don't get into debates until either 12 seats, or the prospect to win 12 seats due to polls.
IE: Official party status
How come the Reform Party and Bloc Quebecois were in the 93 debates since neither had 12 seats and in the case of the Reform Party it was questionable at the time of the debates if they would meet the 12 seat mark. I believe that if the Greens win this seat and are at 10% or more in the polls they will be in the next debates.
Still I believe the Liberals will hold this one.
I don't know how much of a referendum on the government this by-election will be, seeing as it takes place in what has been a fairly strong Liberal riding over the years. Had it taken place in a swing riding (e.g. Parry Sound-Muskoka, Barrie, etc etc), then that would be a true referendum on the government.
All three parties will lose support to the Greens, the Liberals will drop due to the incumbency advantage, the Tories will remain the same, and the NDP-- well they're a non-factor in this race.
As I predicted on my blog, I think the Liberals will hold this over the Tories by 5%. The Greens will narrowly edge out the NDP for third place.
Miles,
Being in London and seeing the sheer amount of support that Pearson and May both have, I say the edge is to Pearson with May following behind.. a little farther off but not too far. She's found a way to seemingly mobilize the student vote,; however if those students actually cast their ballots will be the next question.
My prediction: Glen Pearson. A great human being, kind, compassionate, and an overall great guy.
Jason - I agree Glen Pearson is definitely the best choice followed by Elizabeth May. Despite all the talk of Diane Haskett pulling it off, I highly doubt it will happen. She seems a little too far right for London.
BC Tory - It still is a referendum in the sense that if the Tories drop in percentage of the popular vote, it will be a sign of dissatisfcation. In the case of Barrie and Parry Sound-Muskoka those two are tough to call since while Harper's support has fallen, those two ridings both had popular Liberal incumbents against a weak Tory opponent in Barrie and someone who didn't live in the riding in Parry Sound-Muskoka. Still if the Liberals retook this it would be a strong message against Harper.
In the case of Barrie and Parry Sound-Muskoka those two are tough to call since while Harper's support has fallen, those two ridings both had popular Liberal incumbents against a weak Tory opponent in Barrie and someone who didn't live in the riding in Parry Sound-Muskoka. Still if the Liberals retook this it would be a strong message against Harper.
That's what I was saying. Those are swing ridings, thus, whoever won could determine whether people support the Harper government or not.
Post a Comment
<< Home