Super Tuesday
The polls have now closed in West Virginia and Georgia. In West Virginia, only the Republicans held their primary, while Georgia features both the Republicans and Democrats. Huckabee has won West Virginia, which certainly gives him some much needed momentum after it appeared he was out. This is also a state where his views would fit well. Historically, this has been a very safe Democrat state when economic issues were the main issues, but as moral issues rose to prominence this state swung over to the Republicans. Huckabee is very right wing socially, but not quite as right wing economically.
Obama wins Georgia, which is definitely a great start. Not only did he win the state, but by a resounding margin and even was competitive amongst white voters, unlike South Carolina where his support came mainly from black voters.
UPDATE #1: Nine states close and the projections so far are McCain takes Connecticut and Illinois while Romney takes Massachusetts. Obama takes Illinois while Clinton takes Oklahoma. McCain winning Illinois is definitely a big win as it is one of the larger states. Romney's win in Massachusetts is no surprise considering that is his home state. Obama's win in Illinois was off course widely expected. The bigger question later tonight is which will by a larger margin, Obama in Illinois or Clinton in New York. Most polls in Oklahoma showed Clinton well ahead so no surprise.
UPDATE #2
McCain wins New Jersey, which is not a surprise. He does best amongst those who don't like Bush and describe themselves as Moderates and this group is strongest in the Northeast. I know some like Brandon will argue he is a true conservative, but I would argue perception often matters more than reality and he is perceived as more moderate than Romney and Huckabee.
UPDATE #3: NBC has projected that Clinton will take Tennessee. Haven't followed that race close enough to really comment on it.
UPDATE #4: Huckabee takes Arkansas and Clinton takes Arkansas, which is really no surprise. If either lost the state, it would be a huge upset.
UPDATE #5: CNN projects John McCain will take Delaware. Not too big a surprise as this is another Northeastern state where he is strongest.
UPDATE #6: Hilary Clinton wins New York, which is not really a surprise considering this is her home state. Although I am surprised that CNN hasn't projected Arizona for McCain because this is home state, so I wonder what is happening here.
UPDATE #7: Barack Obama carries Delaware, so although not many delegates, at least one more Northeast state. NBC has projected Huckabee has won Alabama. Although Huckabee has won two states, with his support being mostly concentrated in the South, I am not sure that will be enough to save his candidacy. NBC has also predicted Clinton has won Massachusetts and this is definitely huge for Clinton considering the Kennedy family, John Kerry, and governor Deval Patrick all endorsed Barack Obama.
UPDATE #8
NBC has projected Clinton has won New Jersey. Considering a significant portion of the population in New Jersey lives in the metropolitan New York area this is no surprise. CNN Projects Obama will win Alabama, which seems to following the trend of winning Southern states with large African-American populations.
UPDATE #9
NBC projects McCain wins Oklahoma while CNN Projects Romney wins Utah, which is not surprising considering the state is overwhelmingly Mormon. NBC has also projected Obama will win North Dakota. So far, although early, it seems Obama is doing well in the Midwest states and this is definitely a good sign when it comes to a general election as the South and the Midwest is where Democrats need to pick up states if they wish to win the general election. NBC has projected Obama has won Utah. Interesting that it is not just the states with large black populations Obama is winning in, but rather seems to be in the states that are less solidly Democrat (save Illinois and Delaware, and maybe Connecticut).
UPDATE #10
CNN Projects Obama will win Kansas and Connecticut. The Connecticut win is a definitely plus as this is right next door to New York and in fact many of the people in Western Connecticut commute to New York City.
UPDATE #11
CNN projects Obama will win Minnesota, it looks like we are seeing a pattern here. I don't know the exact numbers, but I believe Bush lost all the Northeast states and West Coast states and still won the presidency in 2004, so could Obama win the Democrat nomination by taking the Southern and middle states.
UPDATE #12
CNN projects John McCain will win Arizona, which shouldn't come as any surprise considering this is his home state.
UPDATE #13
CNN Projects Mitt Romney wins North Dakota, although I am not sure how much this will do for him. California is too close to call, so it will be a while before we find out who takes the prize possession.
UPDATE #14
CNN Projects Mitt Romney wins Minnesota.
I am going to sign off for the night. I will have more tomorrow when the results are in.
FINAL THOUGHTS
On the Republican side, McCain has undoubtedly emerged as the clear frontrunner although he didn't pull off the clean sweep some were hoping for. At this point, it is probably a greater than 90% chance he will win the Republican nomination. The only way I could see him losing it is if either Romney or Huckabee drop out soon and their supporters go en masse to the other side. I also see his wins in the Northeast and more moderate states as a plus for him as if the Republicans want to win the next election they need to hold what they had last time around and at least stay competitive in some of the Northeast states. McCain winning is a good thing for the Republicans in terms of the fact he is the only one that stands a realistic chance of winning the next election, while on the surface not good for the Democrats as he is the toughest to beat. However, as I mentioned earlier, I would rather the Democrats face a tough battle since my worry is they might get complacent if Romney or Huckabee was the Republican leader. However, despite McCain's positive polling numbers right now, he does face some major hurdles ahead. Much of the conservative base in the Republican party is convinced he is not a true conservative and unlike Canada where you can win without this group due to how small they are, you need this group to show up at the polls to win. At the same time if you pander too excessively to this group, you scare off many moderates, so if McCain either ignores them too much or panders to them too heavily, this could hurt him. Romney's inability to do as well as expected was definitely a good thing as besides disliking this guys' views, he is a huge flip flopper with few principles. Never mind, it is always nice to see people like Anne Coulter and Rush Limbaugh have an egg in their face. I was surprised to see Mike Huckabee do as well as he did, but considering that he is definitely the most socially conservative of the three and has the strongest appeal to Evangelicals, it is not totally surprising as Evangelicals comprise a large portion of the Republican vote in the South.
On the Democrats, there is no clear front-runner. Clinton won more states winning both New York and California, however, Obama won more states, never mind the Democrats divide up delegates based on congressional districts, not winner takes all, so this means Obama will likely get delegates from New York and California. I also think the fact Obama won mostly in red states shows he has a better chance at winning since the Democrats must pick up states to win the next election. I agree that his wins in the South, although good for his prospects of winning the party nomination, won't mean a lot in a general election as the South is solidly Republican save for perhaps Florida. At the same time the Midwest and the Mountain West is not solidly Republican and this is an area the Democrats can pick up states. His strong support amongst African-Americans in the South, was no surprise, but his large wins shows his support is not just limited to this community, but also includes people from the white community. In addition states such as North Dakota, Idaho, Utah, and Minnesota don't have a very Black population so he also has a strong appeal amongst white voters. In fact according to CNN's exit poll in California, he not only won amongst African-Americans in that state, he won amongst white voters, but lost badly amongst Latinos and Asian-Americans. His weak support amongst Latinos is undoubtedly something he has to overcome. With no clear front-runner for the Democrats, it will be interesting to see who wins the next few states, as this will show who has the momentum when going into larger ones such as Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania which come later. I suspect Obama will take the Potomac states and Louisiana, but Washington is still too close to call.
Obama wins Georgia, which is definitely a great start. Not only did he win the state, but by a resounding margin and even was competitive amongst white voters, unlike South Carolina where his support came mainly from black voters.
UPDATE #1: Nine states close and the projections so far are McCain takes Connecticut and Illinois while Romney takes Massachusetts. Obama takes Illinois while Clinton takes Oklahoma. McCain winning Illinois is definitely a big win as it is one of the larger states. Romney's win in Massachusetts is no surprise considering that is his home state. Obama's win in Illinois was off course widely expected. The bigger question later tonight is which will by a larger margin, Obama in Illinois or Clinton in New York. Most polls in Oklahoma showed Clinton well ahead so no surprise.
UPDATE #2
McCain wins New Jersey, which is not a surprise. He does best amongst those who don't like Bush and describe themselves as Moderates and this group is strongest in the Northeast. I know some like Brandon will argue he is a true conservative, but I would argue perception often matters more than reality and he is perceived as more moderate than Romney and Huckabee.
UPDATE #3: NBC has projected that Clinton will take Tennessee. Haven't followed that race close enough to really comment on it.
UPDATE #4: Huckabee takes Arkansas and Clinton takes Arkansas, which is really no surprise. If either lost the state, it would be a huge upset.
UPDATE #5: CNN projects John McCain will take Delaware. Not too big a surprise as this is another Northeastern state where he is strongest.
UPDATE #6: Hilary Clinton wins New York, which is not really a surprise considering this is her home state. Although I am surprised that CNN hasn't projected Arizona for McCain because this is home state, so I wonder what is happening here.
UPDATE #7: Barack Obama carries Delaware, so although not many delegates, at least one more Northeast state. NBC has projected Huckabee has won Alabama. Although Huckabee has won two states, with his support being mostly concentrated in the South, I am not sure that will be enough to save his candidacy. NBC has also predicted Clinton has won Massachusetts and this is definitely huge for Clinton considering the Kennedy family, John Kerry, and governor Deval Patrick all endorsed Barack Obama.
UPDATE #8
NBC has projected Clinton has won New Jersey. Considering a significant portion of the population in New Jersey lives in the metropolitan New York area this is no surprise. CNN Projects Obama will win Alabama, which seems to following the trend of winning Southern states with large African-American populations.
UPDATE #9
NBC projects McCain wins Oklahoma while CNN Projects Romney wins Utah, which is not surprising considering the state is overwhelmingly Mormon. NBC has also projected Obama will win North Dakota. So far, although early, it seems Obama is doing well in the Midwest states and this is definitely a good sign when it comes to a general election as the South and the Midwest is where Democrats need to pick up states if they wish to win the general election. NBC has projected Obama has won Utah. Interesting that it is not just the states with large black populations Obama is winning in, but rather seems to be in the states that are less solidly Democrat (save Illinois and Delaware, and maybe Connecticut).
UPDATE #10
CNN Projects Obama will win Kansas and Connecticut. The Connecticut win is a definitely plus as this is right next door to New York and in fact many of the people in Western Connecticut commute to New York City.
UPDATE #11
CNN projects Obama will win Minnesota, it looks like we are seeing a pattern here. I don't know the exact numbers, but I believe Bush lost all the Northeast states and West Coast states and still won the presidency in 2004, so could Obama win the Democrat nomination by taking the Southern and middle states.
UPDATE #12
CNN projects John McCain will win Arizona, which shouldn't come as any surprise considering this is his home state.
UPDATE #13
CNN Projects Mitt Romney wins North Dakota, although I am not sure how much this will do for him. California is too close to call, so it will be a while before we find out who takes the prize possession.
UPDATE #14
CNN Projects Mitt Romney wins Minnesota.
I am going to sign off for the night. I will have more tomorrow when the results are in.
FINAL THOUGHTS
On the Republican side, McCain has undoubtedly emerged as the clear frontrunner although he didn't pull off the clean sweep some were hoping for. At this point, it is probably a greater than 90% chance he will win the Republican nomination. The only way I could see him losing it is if either Romney or Huckabee drop out soon and their supporters go en masse to the other side. I also see his wins in the Northeast and more moderate states as a plus for him as if the Republicans want to win the next election they need to hold what they had last time around and at least stay competitive in some of the Northeast states. McCain winning is a good thing for the Republicans in terms of the fact he is the only one that stands a realistic chance of winning the next election, while on the surface not good for the Democrats as he is the toughest to beat. However, as I mentioned earlier, I would rather the Democrats face a tough battle since my worry is they might get complacent if Romney or Huckabee was the Republican leader. However, despite McCain's positive polling numbers right now, he does face some major hurdles ahead. Much of the conservative base in the Republican party is convinced he is not a true conservative and unlike Canada where you can win without this group due to how small they are, you need this group to show up at the polls to win. At the same time if you pander too excessively to this group, you scare off many moderates, so if McCain either ignores them too much or panders to them too heavily, this could hurt him. Romney's inability to do as well as expected was definitely a good thing as besides disliking this guys' views, he is a huge flip flopper with few principles. Never mind, it is always nice to see people like Anne Coulter and Rush Limbaugh have an egg in their face. I was surprised to see Mike Huckabee do as well as he did, but considering that he is definitely the most socially conservative of the three and has the strongest appeal to Evangelicals, it is not totally surprising as Evangelicals comprise a large portion of the Republican vote in the South.
On the Democrats, there is no clear front-runner. Clinton won more states winning both New York and California, however, Obama won more states, never mind the Democrats divide up delegates based on congressional districts, not winner takes all, so this means Obama will likely get delegates from New York and California. I also think the fact Obama won mostly in red states shows he has a better chance at winning since the Democrats must pick up states to win the next election. I agree that his wins in the South, although good for his prospects of winning the party nomination, won't mean a lot in a general election as the South is solidly Republican save for perhaps Florida. At the same time the Midwest and the Mountain West is not solidly Republican and this is an area the Democrats can pick up states. His strong support amongst African-Americans in the South, was no surprise, but his large wins shows his support is not just limited to this community, but also includes people from the white community. In addition states such as North Dakota, Idaho, Utah, and Minnesota don't have a very Black population so he also has a strong appeal amongst white voters. In fact according to CNN's exit poll in California, he not only won amongst African-Americans in that state, he won amongst white voters, but lost badly amongst Latinos and Asian-Americans. His weak support amongst Latinos is undoubtedly something he has to overcome. With no clear front-runner for the Democrats, it will be interesting to see who wins the next few states, as this will show who has the momentum when going into larger ones such as Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania which come later. I suspect Obama will take the Potomac states and Louisiana, but Washington is still too close to call.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 4:44 PM
4 Comments:
In the primaries between now and March 4 (kind of a mini-Tuesday), Obama probably has a big advantage as it is mostly smaller states, more blue-collar states and those with a large Black population. (Clinton's support has been more with the establishment). Romney dropped out on the GOP side, but Huckabee needs a miracle to catch McCain by steamrolling over McCain in every state remaining (in those that are not winner take all, he must win by huge margins).
Back in Canada, Alberta called its election for March 3...the PC's will likely lose votes (and seats) both left and right there.
Anonymous - I think the next few primaries should favour Obama, although Clinton may win one, although I expect Obama to win the majority. I agree it is all but certain McCain will win the Republican nomination. The big question is can he now bring the hard core conservatives on side, without alienating the moderates.
With the Democrats, there is enough desire to see the Republicans thrown out of office that there is nothing to gain by running on a hard core liberal platform, since the hard core liberals will go Democrat no matter what, but the moderates could potentially switch. On the other hand some hard core conservatives could stay him if they see McCain as too moderate.
In Alberta, I expect the PCs to take pretty much all of Rural Alberta, lose seats in Calgary, while Edmonton is still a wild card as although the party has dropped Stelmach is more popular there than Klein. In fact it is the exact opposite now with Stelmach being more popular in Edmonton, but Klein off course was a lot more popular in Calgary. I Suspect all the core seats in Calgary will go Liberal, while the Tories will head all the periphery seats.
I think the Liberals will do really well in Calgary (perhaps even gaining a suburban seat or two), and they may also get some seats in the smaller cities. Edmonton should be a Liberal sweep except for a few NDP seats. The reason: the new Wildrose Alliance should get about 10-15% I think and will split the vote. They may also steal a few normally safe rural seats from the PC's who have been seen as alienating the conservative base with a high-spending budget and no positions on social issues.
I agree that the Liberals might get some smaller cities especially the other Lethbridge seat and the two Red Deer seats as the Wild Rose Alliance will split the vote here. I am not sure the Wildrose Alliance will amount to much in Edmonton (2-5% is my guess), although the Tories could certainly lose their three remaining seats. I would say any gains are unlikely, but not impossible. In Calgary, I could see them getting some suburban seats such as Calgary-Glenmore and Calgary-McCall, but ones like Calgary-Hays are pretty safe Tory seats. The Tories do have a star candidate in Calgary-Currie, but I don't think that will be enough really to take it back. Had Scud Scott run in 2004, Calgary-Currie probably would have stayed Tory though.
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