Wilson's defection to the Green Party and the upcoming election here in Canada

Today the Green Party got their first MP when Blair Wilson defected to the Greens after being kicked out of the Liberal caucus and not being re-admitted over possibly over-spending during the last campaign. I have always supported the right of MPs to switch parties and so I have no objections to Blair Wilson's decision to join the Green Party, although I think he will face a difficult time getting re-elected in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country. That being said, the riding is probably one of the more favourable ones for the Greens when you consider it includes the Sea to Sky Corridor and Sunshine Coast so a Green Party win there, while unlikely, is not impossible. As for what this will mean for the Greens, it is tough to say. They could have a large breakthrough like the Reform Party did in 1993, or it could be meaningless and the party goes nowhere. That being said, I think the Liberals and NDP are probably hoping it doesn't benefit them while the Tories probably hope it does.

As for the upcoming federal election, the polls are certainly not looking good for the Tories, especially in Ontario where they are polling at their lowest since being elected in 2006, so my guess is they want to go now since they fear things will get even worse, not because Harper feels he has a good chance at a majority government. As for the Liberals, the numbers are not ideal, but they are good enough, so I am content with them. As for what while happen, there are five possibilities that I could forsee, two being very plausible, another two being highly unlikely, and the final having almost no chance of happening.

1. Another Conservative minority - How this would play out would depend on whether this was a strengthned minority for the Tories or a weaker one. A weaker one would divide both parties between those wanting their leaders to go and those wanting them to stay. Some Tories would argue with everything going in his favour, the fact Harper couldn't move them any further is proof they need someone new to take them to the next stage, while others would argue that since he would still be PM, he should be able to stay on. As for the Liberals, some would argue anything less than winning the next election means Dion was the wrong choice and needs to go, while others would argue he is taking them in the right direction and with Harper being damaged after the election, he should stay on and try to win it next time around. A stronger Tory minority would mean Harper was safe as leader and could probably govern reasonably effectively for at least a year. Since we will likely be out of the recession (or near recession) by then, he will at least be able to avoid an election when the party runs into its biggest difficulties. Dion off course would have no choice but to step down under this scenario.

2. A Liberal minority - Although many Tory bloggers will dismiss this as impossible, looking at the poll numbers and the general mood of the country, I think this is just as likely as the above option. Dion, would obviously get to stay on, so his main challenge would be not over his leadership but rather entering during bad economic times and possibly bringing in the carbon tax at the worse time. If he can avoid an election for the first year, he should be in good shape after that as once the economy starts to recover his numbers will likely rebound and he will be able to run under the platform of turning things around, however he has to be careful to not do anything too controversial to trigger another election as things will be rough in the next year for whoever wins. Harper will off course be gone as leader, so the big question is what direction will the party go in. The right wing of the party will argue that those who didn't vote Tory never will and the party is wasting its time going after them while alienating its core supporters. They will argue the party needs to choose someone more right wing in order to bring out their base, which they believe is large enough to win (I disagree with this off course). On the other hand, many moderates will argue Harper's failure to connect with groups he struggled amongst and his failure to expand beyond the party's right wing base is proof they need someone more moderate who can also appeal to centrist voters as there are simply not enough right wingers in Canada to win by appealing to them only. How it will turn out is anybody's guess.

3. Tory Majority - While highly unlikely, it is not impossible. A strong negative reaction to the carbon tax could turn things around in Atlantic Canada (although I am skeptical), rural Quebec could certainly swing in favour of the Tories as the Bloc continues to decline, the 905 belt and mid sized cities in Ontario, although not Tory now and unlikely to go Tory, they are not so hostile they won't ever go Tory, they simply don't feel comfortable with going for the Tories under Harper at the moment. While this is not likely to change, it is still possible. The few seats they don't have in the Prairies are not enough to make a difference. Finally in British Columbia, it is a real wild card and with the Greens, NDP, and Liberals splitting the centre and left votes, they could pick up a number of seats there, although with BC's past history of bucking national trends, any gains here could easily be offset by losses elsewhere. The chances of this happening are pretty slim and the Tories would have to run a near perfect campaign while the Liberals a disastrous one for this to happen.

4. Liberal Majority - While most Tories would say I am insane for even suggesting this as a possibility, I do believe it is possible, although not likely. Although it is true I have a tough time thinking where they will pick up another 50 seats, I've seen more than enough elections where a 10 point or greater swing has occurred, so with the Liberals polling around 33% and the fact they tend to do well amongst undecideds as well as have a much better ability to pick up soft Green and soft NDP votes still makes this a possibility even if remote.

5. A party other than the Liberals or Conservatives win the election. The chances of this happening are pretty close to zero as besides the Green Party and NDP, all the other parties are either largely unknown or don't run candidates in enough ridings for this to be even feasible. In the case of the Greens, people may like them, but they still have too low a profile. Never mind, even in Europe where the Greens are much stronger, they have only been in government when included in a governing coalition, they have never won on their own right anywhere in the world and somehow Canada just doesn't seem like the most likely place for the first Green Party victory. While the NDP is polling almost as high as Bob Rae was going into the 1990 Ontario election, I suspect if the NDP was to see a large enough rise during the election, the question would turn from do they deserve a larger voice in parliament to should they form government since as good sounding as their ideas are to some, I suspect at the moment Canadians are not in the mood to go into uncharted waters.

As for predictions, it is too early to make them. For one thing, the large margin of errors makes the regional numbers suspect and therefore makes it difficult to make seat projections. During the election there will be enough polls as well as several regional ones that it will be clearer on not only the regional numbers but also the distribution within each region as well. I will post my predictions in the final week.

In the mean time I will be in Quebec City and Ottawa for the next week for my vacation so I won't be blogging until the second week of September.

McCain chooses Sara Palin

Its look like McCain choose a complete dark horse that few of us thought or had even heard about. The choice was a gamble which could work out well, but also blow up in his face. On the surface it was definitely a good choice, but beneath it she has many weaknesses and a lot will depend on how good a job both the Democrats and media are at pointing that out. Her positives are she is a maverick like McCain, it is a woman so she could tap into some Hilary supporters who are reluctant to support Obama, comes across as your average everyday Joe, is a conservative so this will keep the Conservative base happy. Her weaknesses are she has very little experience especially on the foreign front. If the McCain people want to accuse Obama of lacking experience they should look at who they are placing just a heart beat away from the presidency. And with McCain's age, his VP pick is probably more of an issue than Obama since there is a much greater chance of him dying in office than Obama or his health deterioriating to the point he cannot continue the presidency. So while I expect the Republicans to close the lead the Democrats have opened up, whether this will be a good pick or not still remains to be seen.

Democratic Convention

With the Democratic Convention now wrapping up, I cannot be happier with how it turned out. With the Democrats and Republicans tied and the momentum being lost by the Democrats, they did everything right to turn things around and I wouldn't be surprised if we at least see a temporary bump in the polls, although a strong convention by the Republicans could erase this. First night, we had Ted Kennedy show his courage that despite his illness, he was willing to come out for probably his last election and make a strong one. Hilary Clinton gave a strong one and gave every reason for her supporters to rally behind Obama even those who were skeptical. As expected Bill Clinton gave a strong speech, but this was definitely an important one. Clinton is regarded by most as a successful president, especially considering how well the economy did under his administration. To date, many felt that he didn't fully support Obama and many pointed to his past statements of saying Obama was not ready to be president. I thought his line about pointing to how many said that about him in 1992 was a classic. This clearly put an end to the idea Clinton was not fully behind Obama. Biden's speech was also strong too and I am sure he will make a good Vice-President.

Tonight was the big one and Obama not only gave a strong speech as he usually does, he did everything he needed to. His speech was not just a fuzzy one about hope and change, he specifically laid out what he planned to do, reached out to all the different groups of Americans, and most importantly took on John McCain's policies as being wrong and out of touch with the present day reality without engaging in personal smears against him. The Democrats did everything right here and the main thing between now and November is to keep the momentum going and not let up, as we have seen to date, things can change quite quickly.

Biden for VP

Barack Obama yesterday choose Biden as his running mate. Although there were many good quality candidates he could have chosen, I do think this was a good choice, even it wouldn't have been my first choice. Ideally, the VP pick should compensate for whatever areas the presidential candidate is weak in and Biden certainly does this. His experience on foreign policy will make it harder for McCain to attack Obama on this. Besides, even if Obama is less experienced on foreign policy than McCain, his political instincts here are a lot better than McCain's. McCain seems to be good at promoting a foreign policy that benefits the US, but not others whereas Obama and Biden both support a foreign policy that benefits both the United States and the rest of the world, not the United States at the expense of others. Also Biden comes from a working class background and this could help Obama appeal to the white blue collar workers which he has struggled with so far. If he wishes to pick up Ohio and likewise hold Michigan and Pennsylvania, this is a key group he needs to do well amongst. As for the current poll numbers, they are not exactly encouraging, but the reality is there are more Americans who are philosophically in line with the Republicans than Democrats so winning is going to always be a challenge for Democrats. According to a strategic counsel poll recently, 51% of Canadians identified themselves as Liberal and 41% Conservative, whereas in the US it was 57% Conservative and 37% Liberal, which could explain why the Liberals here have to mess up a lot more than the Tories to lose and likewise the Republicans have to mess up a lot more in the US to lose than the Democrats. Usually the VP picks and conventions tend to give each party a bounce, so will have to see who gets the larger bounce here. Right now neither McCain or Obama has been able to crack the 50% mark, whereas I suspect after the Labour Day weekend, one of them will crack it and hopefully that is Obama. Another challenge the Democrats face too as the demographic that leans Democrat (working class, urban, African-American, Latino, young, single) tend to have a lower voter turnout that the demographic that leans Republican (white male, religious, suburban/rural, middle-upper income, married with children). Much like Canada, a higher turnout should benefit the Democrats as opposed to a lower one, so the main thing for Obama will be getting those who normally abstain from voting but like his policies to show up. The only demographic that usually votes Democrat that has a high turnout are those with high incomes living in large urban centres with a post-graduate degree, but that group is not particularly large in terms of their total share of the population.

In other news, it looks more and more likely like we will have a federal election. I do believe that we need one to put an end to Harper's obstructionist tactics and arrogance, however if Harper decides to ignore the law he passed on fixed election dates and goes and dissolves parliament without being defeated in a non-confidence vote, I hope the opposition parties raise this many times throughout the campaign. This would be the height of arrogance and maybe what it would take to see him defeated. I plan to work on Gerard Kennedy's campaign myself who is running in Parkdale-High Park which although I don't actually live in the riding it begins only a few blocks west of where I live (I am in Trinity-Spadina).

On the brighter side, Canada had a great finish to the olympics. After a lousy first week with no medals, we more than made up for that by winning 18 medals which tied what we got in Barcelona in 1992 and only fell short of what we got in 1996 in Atlanta (I don't count 1984 in Los Angeles as these were boycotted by many countries). Add to the fact we had 12 fourth place finishes, many by only a fraction of a second shows we have great potential to do well in 2012. Also of the countries who got more medals than we did, only Cuba, Belarus, and Australia have smaller populations. I don't think we will finish ahead of the Aussies in the medal standings anytime soon (at least not in the summer olympics), but hopefully in 2012, Australia will be the only country smaller than Canada to have more medals than us. In 2010 I am hoping for Canada to come in first and considering we came in third in Turin, I think this is doable. Although I no longer live in Vancouver, I definitely plan on attending the olympics.

Upcoming by-elections

This coming September, we will likely face three by-elections unless off course the government falls before then. Below is a summary of whats at stake and what I expect.

Westmount-Ville Marie

This is a safe Liberal riding so anything other than a Liberal win would be a huge disappointment, in fact even a near miss like we had in Vancouver-Quadra would be as well. That being said I think the Liberals will win for the simple reason the demographics of the riding are stacked against all the other parties. It has a large Anglophone population so that pretty much rules out a Bloc Quebecois win, includes Westmount, which is a fairly affluent community so, despite the NDP's by-election win neighbouring Outremont, I doubt it will spill over into Westmount-Ville Marie as the NDP rarely does well amongst the wealthy. Likewise being in Montreal proper and considering how poorly the Tories did in Montreal, a Tory win is pretty much out of the picture as well.

Saint Lambert

This could be an interesting one and in fact effect whether we have a fall election or not. On the one hand a Liberal win would show momentum and make them more keen on going to the polls, but a Bloc loss would probably make them less keen so the government might survive after all, but have the Bloc instead of the Liberals propping them up. This was a Liberal riding prior to adscam so I could really see it going either way. The Tories only got 19% in 2006, so a Tory win would be a huge surprise. The main thing here is whether the Tories go up or go down in terms of support, while the NDP is not a factor here.

Guelph

If the Tories do pick up any of the three, this is their best shot, but still despite being surrounded by fairly conservative communities, this is an urban community with a university in it so it is not a conservative town at all. Rather the Tories could pull off a win by a strong split between the NDP, Greens, and Liberals thus coming up the middle. Likewise an NDP win, although not likely, is possible too, while a Green win is pretty much out of the picture, but I could see them doing quite well in this riding considering it has a large university population which they tend to do well amongst. Although this riding did go Conservative in the past, lets remember prior to 2004 federally and 2007 provincially it was Guelph-Wellington instead of Guelph, thus it included a large chunk of rural area which is substantially more conservative than the city itself. Still, my bet would be on the Liberals holding this one, especially considering the Tories have done a good job of alienating voters in Ontario and giving them every reason not to vote for them. I would say this is an example of both Flaherty and Harper letting their ego get ahead of their political judgment.

Now the final question, is will we have a fall election or not. I won't make any predictions, other than it seems quite possible. I don't think the Liberals should bring down the government without having a reason for doing so, but at the same time they should not hesitate to vote against motions of confidence if they feel they are bad bills. The Liberals should vote based on principle, not on political calculations. The reality is despite what some Tories may say, Harper has not overly impressed Canadians and is vulnerable. In particular he seems to be pleasing those who already supported him, but done little to reach out to those skeptical of him in 2006. Ignoring his policies, I find his bully and confrontational style of governing unimpressive and hope after next election we can put an end to this style of government. Minority governments have been successful in many countries elsewhere and many of these have included parties with very different ideologies (i.e. Germany between the centre-right CDU-CSU and the centre-left SPD) so it is possible for parties of different ideologies to work together if they are willing to put the interest of the country ahead of their narrow partisan interests, but unfortunately that won't happen as long as Harper is in charge.

Two other issues are the deportation of the war resisters and the Tories cuts to arts funding. On the war resisters, I think the Iraq War was wrong and immoral, however, I am a bit worried about the precedent of letting anyone who refuses to fight in a non-UN sanctioned war automatically be accepted in Canada. Although there are few wars as big as Iraq, there are many smaller scale ones not sanctioned by the UN i.e. Russia invading Georgia just this past week, so we simply don't have the ability to take everyone who wishes to come here. Instead they should be able to apply under normal immigration channels and if they qualify, their desertion will not play a factor in their decision to be admitted. Likewise I would change it from UN sanctioned to wars Canada disapproves of as the Iraq War would still be immoral even had it received UN sanction and likewise Canada did participate in Kosovo which was not UN sanctioned. Besides, I believe if those war resisters stayed in the US and went to jail, this would show a lot of courage on their part and strengths in their views and would likely have a greater impact in preventing future wars like Iraq. This is what Mohammed Ali did. Likewise Martin Luther King Jr., Nelson Mandela, and Gandhi all went to prison for protesting against what they saw was unjust and all of them in the end succeeded in getting what they hoped to achieve. The above four mentioned are heros in the truest sense.

The other issues is the Tories funding cuts to the Arts. I am a strong believer in the free market and generally believe most things should sink or swim on their own. At the same token I do realize that the positive benefits from the arts can pay off in terms of increased tourism, more investment so therefore if done properly they could be a wise investment. Cultural sites such as the Louvre, Roman Coliseum, Parthenon, and Stonehedge all get government funding and in each of these cases, the economic spinoffs from increased tourism more than offsets whatever costs is involved. My real worry more is the Tories reasoning, as it has less to do with them being for the free market and more to do with them not wanting to fund people who have different views than themselves. Although many of the artist may be centre-left in their views, I would hardly say they are non-mainstream, in fact many are probably closer to the median Canadian voter than the Tories are. Finally I am deeply offended by their idea this would be popular in the West. I am originally from Vancouver which is in many ways even more liberal (philosophically) than Toronto. We are not all a bunch of rednecks and hard right wingers. Even most Albertans are centre-right rather than hard right. Witness how both moderate candidates, Ed Stelmach and Jim Dinning finished ahead of Ted Morton, standard bearer of the Hard right and ironically a close ideological soulmate of Harper in the Alberta PC leadership race. Instead of following the footsteps of the Republicans, maybe the Tories could look across the Atlantic at their British counterparts who under David Cameron have moved away from its more ideological past towards the centre and are also consistently polling above 40%, something the Tories here cannot do.

UPDATE:

Harper has also called a by-election in Don Valley West. Considering this is in Toronto, I suspect the Liberals will hold this, that being said this is almost Toronto's equivalent of Vancouver-Quadra, so if the Tories pull off a surprise win or come close to winning it, I suspect the Liberals will not be eager to go the polls. This did go Tory in 1988 federally and 1999 provincially so it has gone for centre-right parties in the past, but as seen in the 90s when the right was split the PCs got close to 30% while the Reform/Alliance struggled to crack the 10% mark, which suggests it has a large number of slight right of centre voters, but few hard right voters. If the Tories had a moderate leader like James Moore or Jim Prentice they might be able to win this, but if they had a more right wing leader like Jason Kenney or Stockwell Day they would be lucky to even get 20%, so as long as the Tories are clearly a right wing party they will continue to lose this to the Liberals, but if they ever move closer to the centre, this could become vulnerable. In addition unlike Vancouver-Quadra, the Greens and NDP are largely non-existent so even if the Tories got 35% like they did in Vancouver-Quadra (which ironically is only 2% more than what they got last federal election and 4% less than what John Tory got in the last provincial election) they still won't win this. They need around 45% to take this and their ceiling is around 40% here.