Debate - My take on it
Unlike the French debate where either Dion or Duceppe was the clear winner and Harper was the clear loser, picking a winner here is much tougher. In fact, asides from Duceppe, you could probably make a sensible case for each one. Here is my take below.
Harper: Certainly performed better than the French debate. Remained calm and collective and also did explain some of his policies when attacked and the same time he spent far more time fending off attacks then going on the offence. If his goal was just to hold his ground, he achieved that, but if his goal was to come out stronger, he failed. That being said, considering it is Quebec that is dragging him down the most, it was more in French debates rather than English debates he needed to turn things around.
Dion: Not the greatest performance, but at least he beat expectations, which were extremely low. With many expecting him to bomb the debate, the fact he stayed above water was in many ways all he needed to do. He had a rough start, but improved as the debate progressed. Although he has a strong accent, his English is not imcomprehensible. He was also very polite but not interjecting unlike the others so in that since he looked more prime-ministerial than Layton or May. I suspect he got what he wanted and this debate will at least help him hold what he has now. He won't make the gains like he did in Quebec from the French debate, but at least be coming out fine, he can still portrary himself as the best person to Stop Stephen Harper and if past campaigns are any indication, the progressive vote tends to coalesce around the Liberals towards the end, although it is still too early to say if he can overcome the current deficit or not. By the end of the weekend we will have a better idea. The Nanos poll looks encouraging so I want to see if others follow suit or if Nanos starts going towards the others.
Layton: If I had to choose a winner, I would probably go for him. He was very strong in attacking harper and even occassionally Dion. And he certainly put out his ideas well. He came across as an ideal opposition leader, but he didn't came across as a PM in waiting. Now that is probably what Layton is looking for as contrary to what he claims, I think even he knows he has no chance at being PM.
May: Also feisty like in French and took Harper on well. A little over aggressive at times, but I still cannot see this debate being anything but good for her. The only thing she has to worry about is the Green vote is quite soft and much of that could shift to the Liberals or NDP in the later days to block the Tories.
Duceppe: Considering he doesn't run candidates outside Quebec and that most Anglophones in Quebec don't vote Bloc Quebecois, he just had to stay out of trouble, which he did. As long as there was no negative headline splashed on the Quebec papers the next day, he was in good shape and he did that.
As for how things will turn out, it won't be until early next week we get the full picture. In addition, people are paying more closely attention that at the beginning as well as we probably haven't seen the strongest ads yet, so any change from the debate can easily be offset much like Mulroney did in 1988 and Martin did in 2004 when both turned around their losses at the debate into wins.
As I expected I was not influence at all by them, but I am already one of those decided voters. In fact I went to the advanced polls today to cast my ballot for Christine Innes. Her chances are not great, but I would sure love to see her beat Olivia Chow. One thing that might be interesting if any Liberals accidentally vote Conservative since her first name also Christine.
Harper: Certainly performed better than the French debate. Remained calm and collective and also did explain some of his policies when attacked and the same time he spent far more time fending off attacks then going on the offence. If his goal was just to hold his ground, he achieved that, but if his goal was to come out stronger, he failed. That being said, considering it is Quebec that is dragging him down the most, it was more in French debates rather than English debates he needed to turn things around.
Dion: Not the greatest performance, but at least he beat expectations, which were extremely low. With many expecting him to bomb the debate, the fact he stayed above water was in many ways all he needed to do. He had a rough start, but improved as the debate progressed. Although he has a strong accent, his English is not imcomprehensible. He was also very polite but not interjecting unlike the others so in that since he looked more prime-ministerial than Layton or May. I suspect he got what he wanted and this debate will at least help him hold what he has now. He won't make the gains like he did in Quebec from the French debate, but at least be coming out fine, he can still portrary himself as the best person to Stop Stephen Harper and if past campaigns are any indication, the progressive vote tends to coalesce around the Liberals towards the end, although it is still too early to say if he can overcome the current deficit or not. By the end of the weekend we will have a better idea. The Nanos poll looks encouraging so I want to see if others follow suit or if Nanos starts going towards the others.
Layton: If I had to choose a winner, I would probably go for him. He was very strong in attacking harper and even occassionally Dion. And he certainly put out his ideas well. He came across as an ideal opposition leader, but he didn't came across as a PM in waiting. Now that is probably what Layton is looking for as contrary to what he claims, I think even he knows he has no chance at being PM.
May: Also feisty like in French and took Harper on well. A little over aggressive at times, but I still cannot see this debate being anything but good for her. The only thing she has to worry about is the Green vote is quite soft and much of that could shift to the Liberals or NDP in the later days to block the Tories.
Duceppe: Considering he doesn't run candidates outside Quebec and that most Anglophones in Quebec don't vote Bloc Quebecois, he just had to stay out of trouble, which he did. As long as there was no negative headline splashed on the Quebec papers the next day, he was in good shape and he did that.
As for how things will turn out, it won't be until early next week we get the full picture. In addition, people are paying more closely attention that at the beginning as well as we probably haven't seen the strongest ads yet, so any change from the debate can easily be offset much like Mulroney did in 1988 and Martin did in 2004 when both turned around their losses at the debate into wins.
As I expected I was not influence at all by them, but I am already one of those decided voters. In fact I went to the advanced polls today to cast my ballot for Christine Innes. Her chances are not great, but I would sure love to see her beat Olivia Chow. One thing that might be interesting if any Liberals accidentally vote Conservative since her first name also Christine.
posted by Monkey Loves to Fight at 2:51 PM
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