Thursday, October 02, 2008

English Debate Preview

Now that we've had a day to digest last night's debate, here is what each party needs to do in order to succeed in the English language debate. Dion and Duceppe were the big winners last night while most would agree Harper did not perform particularly well and even if he didn't perform horribly, he needed to gain in Quebec, not hold what he already had. So here is what each party leader needs to do tonight.

Stephen Harper

Staying calm and looking prime-ministerial like last night does make some sense, but not to the point that of letting your opponents rip you apart. He cannot be too passive like last night, but not overly aggressive either like he sometimes is in the House of Commons, rather he needs to strike some balance in between the two. It goes without question he will have four leaders ganging up on him again, although it is this time in his native language and he kind of has an idea of what is coming at him. In addition his lacklustre performance last night probably more or less killed any chance of him winning a majority, so now the goal is to hold what he has.

Stephane Dion

If he can perform as well as he did last night and do the same things, he should be in great shape. Yes, he has the disadvantage of not being as good a debater in English as French, but if expectations wer low for him in the French debates, I suspect they are even lower in the English debates, so even a half decent performance should be win. He needs to do two things, attack Harper hard, but also show how he would be a better PM. Unlike the other three leaders who have zero chance at becoming PM, he does. Saying how bad the current government is can only get one so far. He needs to show how a Liberal government would be better.

Jack Layton

He will probably have a decent showing but not a great one. He needs to focus most of his attention on Harper, but still make occassional references to the Liberals. His main theme should be how the NDP is a progressive party on a whole host of issues, not just when politically convenient, but consistently. Also how the NDP is the only party to have consistently opposed the Harper agenda.

Gilles Duceppe

Considering that most viewers of this debate won't be able to vote for the Bloc Quebecois and even the few English speakers in Quebec who are watching are not likely to go Bloc Quebecois, so all he needs to do is not get eaten alive. Essentially, he did what he needed to do last night, now he needs to simply make sure nothing bad about him appears on the front pages of the Quebec papers tomorrow. And off course if there is an opportunity to attack Harper had, seize it since even if few Quebeckers are watching the debate, any major statement or knockout punch will get media attention, but otherwise lay low.

Elizabeth May

Just being in the debate should be a huge victory for her. Her main goal will be to hold what she has and maybe pick up a few votes here and there. As in the past, she is good at attacking Harper and needs to continue this by being feisty but not looking overly nasty.

Anyways I will have more on my take after the debates are over.

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