Les Debats - Preview

Tonight are the French debates and off course any impact from this will be primarily felt in Quebec. That is not to say this won't matter. Obviously for the Bloc Quebecois, this is the more important debate, but I would say in many ways this is just as important if not more important for the Tories. They have been sliding in Quebec and without gains in Quebec, a majority government will be next to impossible so tonight's debates could play a major role in determining if the Tory slide continues in Quebec, they level off, or they rebound. Here is my to do list for each party.

Bloc Quebecois

At the beginning of the election, many talked about them having their worse showing ever and being irrelevant. That proved to be somewhat premature since although sovereignty is now on the backburner, the Bloc Quebecois has been successful is portraying Stephen Harper as a right wing extremist who is out of touch with mainstream Quebeckers and that the Bloc is the best party in Quebec to prevent a Tory majority. This has paid off, in part because of some of the statements and policies the Tories have made (Funding cuts to the Arts as well as their Justice plan) and now we are talking about minimal losses for the Bloc Quebecois. In fact, we may even be talking about the Bloc gaining seats if the trend continues. So for Gilles Duceppe, do what he has been doing, which is working, and that is continue to hamme Harper as being too right wing for Quebec and out of touch with Quebec values.

Conservatives

At the beginning of the election, things looked pretty good in Quebec, with the Bloc and Tories almost tied and the Tories polling around 30%. Now, the prospect of big gains in Quebec is fading and the possibility of losing seats there, which was unthinkable a few weeks ago has now arisen. Harper therefore must turn things around in the debates since even the most optimistic gains in British Columbia and Ontario would still put him short of a majority, therefore he must win more seats in Quebec to win a majority. He needs to portray himself as moderate and one who understand's Quebec's distinctness and culture. He needs to play up his policies on having more Francophones on the CRTC, recognizing Quebec as a nation, and giving Quebec a seat at UNESCO. Debates are never a time to drop new policies, but they can at least set the stage for new ones. This is what Harper needs to do.

Liberals

Despite the dissatisfaction with the Tories in Quebec and the retreat of the NDP, the Liberals have not been able to gain much traction. Although Dion is hated by some in Quebec, he is also respected by others. More importantly, French is his native language so he is likely to have a fairly solid performance tonight (tomorrow is a different story though as he struggles in English still a bit). He needs to argue the Liberals cannot only stop Harper from winning a majority but also form government and introduce many of the priorities Quebec wants. The reality is Harper was able to make the arts cuts even with a minority so to prevent this, the Tories need to be defeated and the Liberals not the Bloc can do this. Likewise, Quebeckers tend to be more environmentally conscious than English Canadians and more open to the Green Shift, so tonight, not tomorrow is the time to sell it. Finally, he needs to address the economy which is faltering. Many see the Tories as better economic stewards despite the fact the Liberal record is far better than either the present Tories or past ones when it comes to the economy. He needs to emphasize this.

NDP

For a while the NDP was doing quite well, polling in the high teens, but has fallen back to the low teens. To regain what they have lost, the NDP needs to emphasize all the issues where they are the party that is most in touch with Quebeckers as Quebec is generally more left leaning than the rest of Canada and thus more likely to support Layton's policies than elsewhere. He needs to capitalize on this. Finally he should point out that the Bloc supported the Tories on the first two budgets and the softwood lumber deal. Only the NDP has consistently voted against the Tories, so for those who want a party that will stand tooth and nail against the Tories, the NDP is the best choice. This is what he needs to say. Also the fact he is a native son of Quebec and fully bilingual helps.

Green Party

They don't have a living hope in hell of winning seats in Quebec, and nevermind Elizabeth May's French is probably the weakest of the five leaders. Tonight is rather a warm up night for tomorrow which is what really matters for the Greens. She needs to do more listening and less debating. This is a time to see what issues the other party leaders are going to discuss and then she can use this to help prepare for tomorrow's debate